CSS Solved International Relations Past Paper 2022 | What are the Russian objectives behind the military intervention in Ukraine? Discuss whether western sanctions can prove effective as an instrument to counter the Russian act.
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Question Breakdown
In this question, the examiner has asked about some broader Russian objectives behind military intervention. You have to explain 5-6 objectives briefly. In, addition to this, you have to explain the sanctions imposed by western nations and whether they were effective in controlling Russia’s aggressive behaviour.
Outline
1-Introduction
2-Russian objectives behind the military intervention in Ukraine
- ✓ The demographic interest behind the invasion
- Putin’s perspective of a shared history of Russia and Ukraine
- The cultural and linguistic similarities between Ukrainians and Russians
- ✓ The economic motivations
- Security of trade
- Energy interdependence of Russia and Ukraine
- ✓ Political interest
- ✓ Russia’s resentment of NATO
- ✓ De-militarization and denazification and ensuring Ukraine’s neutrality- Putin’s perspective
3- Western sanctions and their effectiveness
- ✓ Economic sanctions give a tough time to Russia
- Banks
- Fuel reserves
- ✓ Political punitive measures took Russia to a bumpy road
- Trade
- Russian elites
- Technology
- ✓ International Organizations and their penalties
4- Critical analysis
5- Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
Ukraine is the most populous and powerful among the fifteen Russian states. It was a fundamental part of Russia and a long-standing rival to western powers during the cold war. It was so important for the Soviet Union that when it decided to sever ties, three decades ago, in 1991, it hit like a coup de grace to the Union. In Feb 2022, Russia tried another invasion to Topple the Government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who from the Russian perspective, is western influenced. The prominent objectives behind this invasion were the demographic interests of Russia in Ukraine, economic vested interests, political interests, Russian resentment of NATO, and ensuring Ukraine’s neutrality towards the East and West. Russia has faced multiple political, economic, and other sanctions in this regard. These current invasions have demolished the concept of a unipolar world headed by the USA and given a new perspective of competition for power among nations.
Russian objectives behind the military intervention in Ukraine
- ✓ The demographic interests behind Putin’s invasion
For every invasion, annexation, war,or fight, there exist some objectives that provoke them to do so. Some of the broader objectives behind Russian invasions are
- Putin’s perspective of a shared history of Russia and Ukraine
According to Vladimir Putin; president of Russia, “people of Ukraine and Russia are one” and they occupy “ indistinguishable spiritual and historical space”. He argued this unity on the historical basis of Slavic people, that formed a confederation of Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians, and were popularly called Kievan Rus (862–1242). Matthew Lenoe, a Russian history expert and a university professor of History, argumentatively said that
“It’s a complicated history. But I want to be clear that what’s going on in Ukraine now is a brutal act of aggression with absolutely no justification”
- The Cultural and linguistic similarities between Ukrainians and Russians
Akos Lada, a political scholar called Russia and Ukraine’s differences a Clash of Brothers not civilizations because of their astounding similarities. Both Russia and Ukraine show similarities in many dimensions such as their race, language, and religion. Then why Russia held a forced invasion? It is because of the sole difference that exists between the two. A recent drastic shift of Kyiv’s political system from Russia-like authoritarianism to a completely democratic system, just like western states was a huge blow to Russia. It not only happened in the western part of the country but the whole region including the East and West.
- ✓ The economic motivations
Ukraine has a distinct importance geographically, militarily, and diplomatically in the region, especially w.r.t Russia. Like it exists on the Black Sea, which is the main naval hub of Russia. Its geographic importance is that the Black Sea gives Ukraine access to the Mediterranean Sea. It also helps to link energy pipelines across the region. Some of the Russian economic interests are mentioned below
- Security of trade
Russia is also its biggest trading partner Ukraine, which means they have a mutually dependent partnership. But in 2013, Ukraine signed a free trade agreement with European Union, that lessened its dependency on Russia. Currently, Ukraine, with the support of western powers, enjoys diverse trading partners, whereas Russia is facing economic constriction, its latest aggressive behaviour will aggravate the situation in the future. According to the UN, in 2021, Ukraine exported US$3.35 Billion to Russia, which is much lesser than in past years.
- Energy interdependence of Russia and Ukraine
Both countries share long-standing economic relationships. About one-third of Russia’s gas supply pipelines flow through Ukraine. Moreover, three-fifth of Ukraine’s natural gas comes from Russia. About 40% of natural gas consumption in Ukraine is dependent on Russia. They are imported via Soyuz and Bratsvo pipelines.
- ✓ Political interests
Russia was always interested in influential politics in Russian states, but it became more determined in this regard after the Orange Revolution of 2004; which overthrew Yanukovych and a reformist competitor became a new president. At the same time, Rose Revolution was happening in Georgia, where Kremlin was defeated and the same thing happened in Kyrgyzstan,s Tulip Revolution. To overcome the threat of losing power in Asia, Russia now adopted aggressive behaviour to fulfil its goals.
- ✓ Russia’s resentment of NATO
NATO’s political and economic extension within Russian states is a great threat to Russia’s regional hegemony. The situation aggravated after NATO’s inclination toward Russian states tried to lead them to the concepts of Neo-liberalism Zelenskyy desired NATO membership to secure its independence and international rights but faced an attack as a consequence.
- ✓ De-militarization and Denazification and ensuring Ukraine’s neutrality- Putin’s perspective
According to Putin, the justification for an armed attack on Ukraine is that he wanted to “demilitarize and DE-Nazify Ukraine”. He declared his objective to protect the Ukrainian people from genocide and the inhumane behavior they face from the government.
Russia never wanted Ukraine to become a reformist or a pro-western state, so he justifies his attack, as by his attack he protected Ukrainians. So, for Russia, it is important to maintain Ukraine’s neutrality to achieve its goals.
Western sanctions and their efficacy
Russia was sanctioned by both Western and European organizations, after February 2022. Due to its aggressive behavior and disturbance in International peace, it faced diplomatic, economic, and other penalties. Now the question is, were these sanctions enough to stop the war?, and were they applicable to maintain International peace? Let’s discuss a few sanctions and their scale of effectiveness.
- ✓ Economic sanctions giving a tough time to Russia
Russia was always interested in influential politics in Russian states, but it became more determined in this regard after the Orange Revolution of 2004; which overthrew Yanukovych and a reformist competitor became a new president. At the same time, Rose Revolution was happening in Georgia, where Kremlin was defeated and the same thing happened in Kyrgyzstan,s Tulip Revolution. To overcome the threat of losing power in Asia, Russia now adopted aggressive behavior to fulfill its goals.
- Banks
The US has held Russian currency in US banks. Moreover, several Russian banks have been eliminated from the “International financial messaging system swift”, that delayed foreign Russian payments of its imports and exports. United Kingdom has also banned Russian transactions from UK banks. It has frozen Russian assets and excluded its banks from UK bank system.
This didn’t stop Russia from using military attacks against Ukraine, now Russia wanted to defreeze its assets, but the proposals are; firstly, to use these assets to rebuild Ukraine. Secondly, the assets shouldn’t be returned because it would weaken the importance of International Law.
- Fuel reserves
Both US and UK have banned the import and export of Russian Oil and Gas. Germany has also banned the Nordstream gas pipeline. EU has firstly not terminated its fuel import from Russia as its 40% consumption is dependent on Russia but it decided to ban it from February 2023.
This has badly affected Russian Gross Domestic Production. IMF forecasted a report in 2022 that says that the Russian GDP has dropped up to 8.5 % in 2022.
- ✓ Political punitive measures took Russia to a bumpy road
- Trade
All of the world leaders halted the purchase of the Kremlin’s semiconductors and other luxury items. Many multinational companies severed ties with Russia which affected its GDP badly. Shipping lines like MSC and Maersk stopped entertaining Russia, which hampered Russia’s access to foreign products. Andrei Belouso (First Deputy Prime Minister) predicted that Russian inflation will rise to 13-14% in 2023.
- Russian Oligarchs
Kremlin government officials, including Putin, its foreign minister, top two military officers, other executives, and oligarchs have been strictly banned to travel to any western state. About 450 government officials were hit by sanctions. All of their international transactions, travel plans, and businesses have been confiscated and banned.
- Technology
To cripple the Russian ability to wage war and disturb international peace is restricted by banning Russian import of lasers, computers, telecommunication accessories, semiconductors, etc. The biggest conglomerates of Kremlin, Rostec, and Mikron have been sanctioned as well.
- ✓ International Organizations and their penalties
- EU
EU sanctioned Russia in several rounds, to halt its ability to finance the war, enacted multiple penalties on Russian elites, and tried to diminish its financial base.
- G7
The Group of seven countries banned Russian commodity export to starve it out of billions of dollars. They failed to achieve their goal as the Russian economy turned out to be more resilient.
- UN
At the UN, about 143 signed a resolution in condemnation of Russian hostile behavior. The organization also condemned this act officially in March 2022 and called it offensive and illegal.
President Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission, called Russia sanctions the “toughest the world has ever seen”
Critical Analysis
Waging war against an independent state is a crime in International Law. If Russia succeeded in annexation like in the case of Crimea, this would unveil the vulnerability of International law and its organizations. Western nations and international organizations have tried their best to halt Russian extremist measures against Ukraine. Despite, Russian countermeasures depicting ripple effects, it was a huge blow to its economy and international image. It has also unveiled its aggressive and authoritarian intentions.
Conclusion
The sanctions have lessened but not stopped Russia to wage war, which meant that sanctions can have a short-term disruption effect but are not able to control any act. More importantly, the situation has cleared that this problem couldn’t be solved by fighting or encountering but the only solution is to diplomatically find out the solution.
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