CSS Pakistan Affairs | Economic Crisis in Pakistan and its Policy on Kashmir
The following question of CSS Pakistan Affairs is solved by Bushra Rizwan under the supervision of Howfiv’s Pakistan Affairs and Current Affairs Coaches: Miss Iqra Ali and Sir Ammar Hashmir. She learnt how to attempt 20 marks question and essay writing from Sir Syed Kazim Ali, Pakistan’s best CSS and PMS English essay and precis teacher with the highest success rate of his students. This solved question is attempted on the pattern taught by Sir to his students, scoring the highest marks in compulsory and optional subjects for years.
Outline
1-Introduction
2-Historical Overlap of the Kashmir Issue and Pakistan’s Economic Crisis
3-How the Recurring Economic Crises within Pakistan have Severely Weakened its Capacity to Project an Effective Foreign Policy on Kashmir?
- ✓Debt accumulation hampering independent foreign policy-making capacity on the Kashmir issue
- ✓CPEC disruptions and attacks on its personnel reducing Pakistan’s capacity to catalyze Chinese pressure on India
- ✓Economic subjugation of ethnic identities within Pakistan leading internal disintegration and shifting focus away from the Kashmir issue
- ✓Economic instability shaking investor confidence, leading to lesser international financial incentives in Pakistan and less support for its stance on Kashmir
4-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
The recurring economic crisis in Pakistan, including economic instability and excessive foreign debt, has resulted in diversion of government attention from the Kashmir issue to the internal economic situation. Moreover, the threat to CPEC has weakened Pak-China relations and hampered the ability of Pakistan to use Chinese pressure on India for Kashmir gains. Moreover, the centre-province tussle on resource distribution has weakened internal integration, shifting the status of the Kashmir issue from primary to secondary priority in foreign policy objectives. As a result, Pakistan has become more entangled in national economic issues and has not been able to project an efficient policy on the Kashmir issue.
Historical Overlap of Kashmir Issue and Pakistan’s Economic Crisis
Since Pakistan’s inception, it has regarded Kashmir as a part of its identity. The role of Pakistan in the 1948 war on Kashmir, when Pakistan was lacking in economic means, led to the acknowledgement that this conflict holds a central position in the country’s foreign policy. Moving forward, the purpose of joining SEATO and CENTO, to get support on the Kashmir issue, was never realized due to its inability to harness its geo-economic position. Throughout history, Pakistan has resorted to both military and diplomatic means for success on the Kashmir issue; the internal economic failure has been the main cause of failure in this endeavour.
How have the Recurring Economic Crises within Pakistan Severely Weakened its Capacity to Project an Effective Foreign Policy on Kashmir?
- Debt Accumulation Hampering Independent Foreign Policy-Making Capacity on the Kashmir Issue
To begin with, Pakistan’s structural dependence on external borrowing, from the IMF, World Bank, bilateral creditors, and commercial markets, has resulted in a foreign exchange constraint, which creates imported inflation and hampers independent foreign policy-making capacity. According to “The Economic Issues of Pakistan” by Akbar Ali Zaidi, there was a 32 billion dollar external debt and near-sovereign default by 1999 when 50-60% of revenue was consumed by debt servicing. This large amount of debt creates dependency on international monetary institutions, leading to less independence for foreign policy on Kashmir. Moreover, the risk of aid cuts and economic sanctions further lessens Pakistan’s will to take active action in case of the Kashmir issue. A policy of appeasement for foreign donors hampers Pakistan’s stance on the Kashmir issue, making it less firm. As there were IMF sanctions on Pakistan in General Musharraf’s era due to the Kargil war, the dependence on IMF debt for internal economic regulation and the risk of such economic sanctions stop Pakistan from taking any rigid stance on the Kashmir issue. Therefore, financial dependence on foreign donors constrains the making of independent foreign policy on the Kashmir issue.
- CPEC Disruptions and Attacks on its Personnel Reducing Pakistan’s Capacity to Catalyze Chinese Pressure on India
Furthermore, Pakistan has been unable to catalyze Chinese pressure on India due to terrorist attacks on CPEC personnel. The potential of this project to meet energy and economic needs of Pakistan and create Pak-China pressure on India in case the Kashmir issue has not yet been harnessed. In August 2018, a suicide bombing in Dalbadin targeted Chinese engineers working on a mineral exploration project in Balochistan. Such activities hamper Pak-China relations and slow the pace of CPEC, resulting in less potential generated from this project. Sino-India dispute in Aksai Chin and Chinese interests in Gawadar due to CPEC have not been harnessed to support Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir due to internal security threats to the CPEC project. Therefore, Chinese pressure on India could not be used by Pakistan in the Kashmir conflict due to security threats to the CPEC.
- Resource conflicts within Pakistan leading to internal disintegration and shifting focus away from the Kashmir Issue
Moreover, resource conflicts within Pakistan have weakened its capacity to project an efficient policy on the Kashmir conflict. Weak federalism and conflicted centre-province relations have deepened faultlines and transformed economic issues into ones threatening national integration. The opposition of Sindh to Kalabagh dam construction in Punjab strengthens national faultlines and prevents Pakistan from generating water security, amplifying its disadvantaged position to India’s upper riparian status. Moreover, internal insurgencies and separatist movements in KPK and Balochistan are mostly rooted in economic grievances that were addressed by the government in time. Civil organizations like Baloch Yakjehti Committee highlight alienation of Baloch communities stemming from economic subjugation of the population. Such internal economic divisions shift the focus away from the Kashmir issue. As a result, Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir becomes less effective, and its international agenda on this conflict becomes sidelined owing to internal economic crisis and its consequent anti-state movements.
- Economic Instability is Shaking Investor Confidence, Leading to Fewer International Financial Incentives in Pakistan and Less Support for its Stance on Kashmir
In addition, economic instability resulting from policy inconsistency and recurrent government changes has resulted in loss of investor confidence, which has in turn led to loss of international support for Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir. Moreover, allegations of money-laundering against Pakistan further led to capital flight from Pakistan. Financial Action Task Force put Pakistan on the grey list for money-laundering and terror financing, which led to loss of financial integrity and investor confidence. This negative image of Pakistan weakened its Kashmir stance to a great extent. Adding to this, Pakistan has been unable to harness its geo-economic abilities that would have strengthened its position on the Kashmir issue. According to Classical Realism by Hans J. Morgenthau, states as rational actors pursue national interests. Applied to Pakistan’s case, it has not been able to harness its natural resources to generate financial incentives for superpowers and gain such international support on the Kashmir issue that overrides India’s stance. Therefore, internal economic instability, constant shifts in economic policies, and loss of investor confidence have made Pakistan’s policy on the Kashmir issue a dormant one.
Conclusion
In conclusion, lack of a vigorous and active policy on the Kashmir issue has resulted from financial dependence of the country on foreign donors. Its inability to catalyze Chinese support on the Kashmir stance results from internal instability. Moreover, due to a lack of investor confidence, Pakistan has lost international support on the matter. In addition, internal resource disputes and disintegration have resulted in an inefficient policy on the Kashmir issue. Hence, the internal economic crisis of Pakistan has hampered an independent and active policy on the Kashmir issue.
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