CSS Current Affairs | 1994 Budapest Memorandum and Russia-Ukraine War
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Outline
1- Introduction
2- A cursory glance at the Budapest Memorandum
3- The loss of nuclear deterrence makes Ukraine more vulnerable
4 – The significance of the Budapest Memorandum regarding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war
- ✓ The loss of nuclear deterrence makes Ukraine more vulnerable
- ✓ The Ineffectiveness of Budapest Memorandum compelling Ukraine to seek security assurance from NATO
- ✓The Budapest Memorandum paving the way for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- ✓ Stance of the US and UK under the obligations of Budapest Memorandum
5- Critical analysis
6- Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
The war between Russia and Ukraine is a hot topic nowadays, with striking questions about the causes and consequences. Amid the rhetoric of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Budapest Memorandum is of core importance as it is a diplomatic security assurance treaty that binds its party states to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine. After its independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine held nuclear stockpiles inherited from the Soviet Union. Owing to the diplomatic pressure of the US and Russia, Ukraine transferred all its nuclear warheads to Russia and signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); in return, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Ukraine signed a security assuring Budapest Memorandum that binds the party states to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine. However, Russia has violated its security commitment to Ukraine; meanwhile, the Budapest Memorandum has become a dead letter for the rest of the states, including the US and UK, as they are not willing to protect Ukraine. Therefore, abrogation of the Budapest Memorandum has far-reaching consequences, including weakening the credibility of security treaties, dampening the future aspects of nuclear disarmament, and raising the concerns of the countries aligned with the major powers.
A cursory glance at the Budapest Memorandum
Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union along with other states at the time of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. With the declaration of an independent state, Ukraine inherited 1900 strategic warheads, 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles, and 44 Strategic bombers from Russia. To obtain international recognition from the international community, Ukraine became a party to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) in the same year of independence. Therefore, later, in 1993, a trilateral dialogue started among the US, Russia, and Ukraine about the dismantling of the inherited nuclear warheads in Russia. This agreement was shaped into the Budapest Memorandum. The Budapest Memorandum is an agreement signed at the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) conference entailing security and economic assurances to Ukraine from the US, UK, and Russia; moreover, it refrains the states from using force to threaten Ukraine in the future. In return, Ukraine gave all its nuclear weapons to Russia and became a signatory of NPT. In addition, Ukraine was also given economic assistance by the US.
The significance of the Budapest Memorandum regarding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war
• ✓ The loss of nuclear deterrence makes Ukraine more vulnerable
Ukraine’s inherited nuclear stockpile was a strong defence against the aggression of hostile countries. At first, several Ukraine parliamentarians raised support for the possession of nuclear weapons as they knew Russia could give them a tough time in the future. However, the dread of being blackmailed by Ukraine’s nuclear power compelled the US and Russia to make Ukraine a member of the NPT by destroying its 1900 nuclear weapons. Washington and its partners used the Budapest Memorandum to empower the agenda of Non-Proliferation. Still, the security assurance given to Ukraine was merely a piece of letter showing the manoeuvring of the US and Russia. Consequently, Ukraine was left with no deterrence, as its nuclear weapons were handed over to Russia for elimination. As a result, the Russian attack on Crimea was the first step towards the war between Ukraine and Russia; however, the US and its partners have done nothing solid to protect the territory of Ukraine except the imposition of some sanctions on Russia and the provision of military assistance. If Ukraine had nuclear weapons, the result would have been different.
• ✓ The Ineffectiveness of the Budapest Memorandum compelling Ukraine to seek security assurance from NATO, a reason behind the Russian attack on Ukraine
Ukraine has been inclined towards the European block from the start. Despite having been a party to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine’s security needs were not fulfilled as obligated in the Budapest Memorandum, leading to the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014. Therefore, Ukraine started its struggles to become a member of the EU and NATO, which was a significant threat to Russia’s sovereignty. The provocative policies of the US towards Russia have been playing an ominous role in uplifting the ambiguity of the Budapest Memorandum. Consequently, Russia perceived the Ukrainian joining NATO as an existential threat and attacked Ukraine in 2022. The dichotomy between the US and Russia, collectively, had made the Budapest Memorandum ineffective in protecting Ukraine.
• ✓ The Budapest Memorandum paving the way for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The Budapest Memorandum was a way to persuade Ukraine to transfer its nuclear weapons to Russia. After the dissolution of the USSR, Ukraine inherited nuclear arsenals from the USSR, making Ukraine a nuclear country with a large number of nuclear weapons. However, a consensus was built among the nations, including the US, UK, and Russia, regarding the security of Ukraine in exchange for its nuclear stockpiles. The Countries were obliged not to use force to threaten Ukraine’s economic and territorial sovereignty except in self-defence. Therefore, Russia has claimed the attack as a form of self-defence, owing to its concern regarding the NATO membership of Ukraine. So, as Ukraine lost its deterrence capability by surrendering its nuclear weapons to Russia, the Budapest Memorandum has set the stage for Russia to attack Ukraine.
• ✓ Stance of the US and UK in the Ukraine-Russia war
The UK and US responses regarding the Russian aggression have been limited. The UK’s permanent representative to the Conference of Disarmament delivered his statement that the UK stands with Ukraine and supports the rights of the Ukrainian people as Russia has abrogated the international law as well as the Budapest Memorandum, binding the UK, US, and Russia in a security assurance deal-by attacking Ukraine. Moreover, he said that Ukraine voluntarily transferred its nuclear weapons to Russia and obtained security assurances from the UK, US, and Russia after signing the Budapest Memorandum. Thus, Russia’s escalation in Ukraine has also disturbed the security calculation of other former Russian states. Correspondingly, the US has also been supporting Ukraine since the Budapest Memorandum was first revoked through a Russian attack on Crimea, Ukraine, in 2014. After the full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the US has given more than 60 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine, along with security assistance. However, many analysts have developed a consensus accusing the US of being a provocateur of the Ukraine-Russia war and supporting its geostrategic interests by using Ukraine.
Critical analysis
The Budapest Memorandum was an essential treaty towards nuclear non-proliferation, as the countries wanted to protect Ukraine’s freedom in exchange for nuclear weapons. However, decades later, Ukraine became the battleground for countries with a Cold War mentality. Russia, considering Ukraine as its natural sphere of influence, has broken its commitment to the Budapest Memorandum. Conversely, the UK and the US have not done enough to make the memorandum worth it. In essence, the abrogation of the Budapest Memorandum has devastating aftermaths in the long run, and the world has witnessed the most menacing impact in the form of the Ukraine-Russia war.
Conclusion
Conclusively, the Budapest Memorandum was the only document that held the countries to a peaceful consensus. However, the repeated provocative attempts from Washington and the belligerent venture from Moscow to answer back the former have distorted the Budapest Memorandum. As a result, the world has been witnessing the war between Ukraine and Russia for more than two years The one way to address this could be the revitalisation of the Budapest Memorandum and the willingness of the countries to respect a peaceful treaty in its true spirit and letter to avoid further human suffering and the wave of mistrust.
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