CSS 2025 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | Pakistan’s Strategic Relations with India and Afghanistan
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Question breakdown
The question has two main parts: the first is to discuss in detail the contours of Pakistan’s strategic relations with India and Afghanistan. Second, we need to discuss if we foresee any serious security challenges from both these neighbours in the near future. Both parts should be backed by scholarly evidence.
Outline
1-Introduction
2-Pakistan-India relations: A historical overview
3-Pakistan-Afghanistan relations: A historical overview
4-The contours of Pakistan’s strategic relations with India
- ✓Kashmir dispute, straining relations
- Evidence: India’s abrogation of Article 370 of its Constitution, revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, has heightened tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad.
- ✓Water dispute, augmenting mistrust
- For example, the Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower projects are prominent illustrations of Indian violations of the Indus Water Treaty.
- ✓India-US military alliance, escalating security dilemma
- Evidence: According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, 2023, “The US delivered its major arms to India, such as aircraft turbofans, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and Fire finder counterbattery radars.”
5-The contours of Pakistan’s strategic relations with Afghanistan
- ✓Border dispute, causing violent skirmishes
- Evidence: According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Report, 2022, “At least six people were killed and 30 were wounded by the Taliban forces’ heavy cross-border artillery bombardment against civilian targets near the Chaman border.”
- ✓Cross-border terrorism, fraying relations
- Evidence: According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), “TTP has conducted nearly 600 attacks in Pakistan in 2024 alone, causing 1600 deaths, including 700 of law enforcement personnel.”
- ✓Trade and transit interests necessitating diplomatic engagements
- Evidence: According to the State Bank of Pakistan, “Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan have surged by 92%, reaching from 262.5 million to $504.3 million in the first six months of the 2024-2025 fiscal year.”
6-The potential security challenges for Pakistan from India in the future
- ✓The risk of Indian satellite-based aggression against Pakistan
- Evidence: According to the Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Report, 2019, “India had successfully tested an anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) by destroying one of its satellites in outer space.”
- ✓The danger of India’s growing political influence in the global arena
- Evidence: According to the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) Report, 2024, “The first and foremost challenge to Pakistan’s BRICS membership is India’s opposition to Pakistan’s inclusion in the organization.”
- ✓The threat of regional isolation owing to the India-Afghan nexus
- Evidence: According to the Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis (ISSRA) Report, 2024, “India is working to regain leverage, this time with the Taliban government, to facilitate its agenda to keep Pakistan destabilized.”
7-The potential security challenges for Pakistan from Afghanistan in the future
- ✓The threat to national cohesion
- For instance, in November 2024, BLA conducted a suicide attack at a crowded railway station in Baluchistan, raising the death toll to 26 and wounding more than 60 people.
- ✓The likelihood of Afghanistan as a new arch-rival
- For example, in 2022, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Afghanistan thanked India for its humanitarian aid and said, “Our bilateral cooperation would not be influenced by other countries’ inter-rivalry.”
- ✓The possibility of a full-blown Kabul River conflict
- Evidence: According to the Pakistan Journal of International Affairs (PJIA), 2022, “With India’s assistance, Afghanistan has geared up to construct 12 dams on the Kabul River on its own, severely reducing water flows into Pakistan.”
8-How to mitigate the potential security challenges faced by Pakistan from India and Afghanistan: A critical diagnosis
9-Conclusion
Answer to the question
Introduction
A complex interplay of historical and geopolitical elements influences Pakistan’s strategic relations with India and Afghanistan. Essentially, the country’s unique location, which borders India to the east and Afghanistan to the west, makes relations with both neighbours critical to its national security and foreign policy. In succession, the contours of Pakistan’s strategic ties with India and Afghanistan are influenced by various factors, including the Kashmir dispute, water conflict, security dilemma, border tensions, cross-border terrorism, and trade and transit interests. Now, delving into the security concerns that Pakistan may face from its neighbours in the future, the first is the risk of India’s satellite-based assault against the country. Second, the state may face regional isolation as India’s influence in Kabul grows. Third, the Afghan Taliban’s alleged support for militants is likely to threaten the national cohesion of Pakistan in the near future. Fourth, there also looms the chance of a full-blown Pak-Afghan war over the shared Kabul River. Ergo, to manage its relationship with Kabul and New Delhi, Islamabad must adopt a multidimensional approach that strikes a balance between security considerations, diplomatic engagement, and regional collaboration.
Pakistan-India relations: A historical overview
Historically, India-Pakistan relations have been complex, with periods of tension, conflict, and occasional cooperation since the two countries earned independence from Britain in 1947. Specifically, the Kashmir dispute is a significant source of friction between two nuclear-armed governments, as both claim sovereignty over it. For example, New Delhi and Islamabad fought three wars in the Kashmir conflict, including 1947, 1965, and 1999, except for the 1971 war. On the other hand, although India and Pakistan have made several attempts to improve the relationship, notably with the 1972 Shimla summit, 1999 Lahore summit, and the 2001 Agra summit, in addition to various peace and cooperation initiatives, relations between the countries have remained frigid as a result of repeated acts of cross-border terrorism and proxy wars. Furthermore, the two neighbours’ animosity has increased due to India’s aggressive stance against Pakistan, which has limited their diplomatic and commercial ties. Evidently, the 2019 Balakot airstrike, a failed attempt, is a clear example of Indian aggression toward Pakistan, violating territorial boundaries. Hence, both nations have deployed heavy military on the Line of Control (LOC), making it a highly militarized area worldwide.
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations: A historical overview
Moving ahead, Pakistan and Afghanistan, two immediate Muslim neighbours, not only share a common border but also have many other commonalities, including linguistic, ethnic, cultural, and religious ties. Yet the nature of Pak-Afghan relations is characterized by mistrust and suspicions. According to the Society for Social Sciences and Research Association (SSSRA) Report, 2020, “Afghanistan was the sole country that voted against Pakistan’s admission to the UN in 1947.” This fact depicts that the Pak-Afghan relationship has been tense since 1947. Moreover, the Durand Line, a border dispute, continued to be a significant source of friction between the two states. Basically, Afghanistan has never formally recognized the Durand Line, which was drawn in 1893, while Pakistan acknowledges it as its international border. Furthermore, Pakistan’s role in the war on terror caused animosity among Afghans. This has contributed to significant anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pakistan has accused Afghanistan of working with India against Pakistan and permitting anti-Pakistani militants to operate from Afghan soil, escalating tensions. Therefore, bilateral ties between Islamabad and Kabul are at a low ebb.
The contours of Pakistan’s strategic relations with India
Although the two nuclear-powered countries share cultural and linguistic similarities, their relationship is characterized by deep mistrust and a security dilemma. The leading cause of the complex and generally hostile strategic relationship between Pakistan and India is historical tensions and frequent military conflicts, making their border one of the most militarized in the world. Here, light has been shed on some critical factors contouring Pakistan’s strategic relationship with India.
- Kashmir dispute, straining relations
To begin with, the Pakistan-India strategic relationship is deeply complex, and the Kashmir issue is at the heart of this complexity. Basically, the ongoing Kashmir dispute is the product of a hurriedly worked-out partition plan by the British Empire, with both countries claiming sovereignty over the region. Since then, the two nations have engaged in multiple conflicts over Kashmir. Moreover, these two adjacent states’ diplomatic and economic ties have deteriorated further due to recent developments in the issue. For instance, India’s decision to rescind Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which conferred special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, has heightened tensions between New Delhi and Pakistan. Pakistan has criticized this move by calling it a totalitarian and fascist ideology. Additionally, in response to India’s decision, Pakistan expelled the Indian High Commissioner and suspended all trade between the two countries. Today, the Kashmir issue remains a major obstacle to peace between India and Pakistan, augmenting mistrust and an arms race. Hence, the Kashmir problem is a significant point of disagreement between New Delhi and Islamabad.
- Water dispute, augmenting mistrust
Next, the strategic relationship between India and Pakistan is significantly shaped by the water dispute, heightening mistrust and raising the possibility of war. In essence, the dispute revolves around breaching the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which divides the waters of the Indus River Basin between the two republics. Basically, India has been constructing dams and rerouting water from the Indus River, thereby violating the IWT. The Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower projects are prominent examples of Indian violations of IWT, with Pakistan objecting to both for worries about reduced water flow, affecting its agriculture. Indeed, this dispute has become a national security issue for Pakistan, which relies significantly on the Indus River for water. On the other hand, India views the disagreement as an opportunity to assert its authority over Pakistan and acquire power in their bilateral relationship. Fortunately, in 2023, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague rejected India’s objections to a Pakistan-initiated procedure over water use in the Indus River basin, reopening a blocked procedure. Undeniably, the water conflict has exacerbated India and Pakistan’s mistrust, posing a serious threat to their bilateral relationship. Thus, water disputes play a critical role in shaping the Indo-Pak relationship.
- India-US military alliance, escalating security dilemma
Along with that, the US and India partnership and defence cooperation have pushed Pakistan into a security dilemma, a situation when an increase in one state’s security leads other states to fear for their security. Therefore, Pakistan also tries to increase its military strength through an alliance with China to counter India. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, 2023, “The US delivered its major arms to India, such as aircraft turbofans, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and Fire finder counterbattery radars.” Such weapons boost the military might of India, thus posing threats to its neighbouring states like Pakistan. Pertinently, in 2018, India became the only South Asian country that was given the Strategic Trade Authorization-1 (STA-1) status by the US. The status allows the sale of state-of-the-art military equipment to India without fulfilling license requirements. Moreover, recently, Pakistan has expressed strong concerns after US President Donald Trump unexpectedly proposed selling Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets to India. Consequently, Pakistan has a sense of insecurity and resorts to enhancing its security by the acquisition of weaponry such as fighter planes, warships, missiles, and so forth. Thus, India-Pakistan power asymmetry has grown as a result of Indo-US strategic and defence relations, escalating the South Asian security paradox.
The contours of Pakistan’s strategic relations with Afghanistan
In the section mentioned below, light has been shed on some important factors that contour Pakistan’s strategic relationship with Afghanistan.
- Border dispute, causing violent skirmishes
Source: Afghanistan Analysts Network
The first and foremost factor that contours Pakistan’s strategic relations with Afghanistan is the border dispute. Actually, the Durand Line, a demarcation established in 1893, is the contentious point between the two states. Essentially, being porous, it provides a breeding ground for cross-border terrorism. After failing to resolve the issue diplomatically, in 2017, Pakistan started to fence the Durand Line to secure its borders and prevent the infiltration of terrorists, illegal migration, smuggling, and human trafficking. Sadly, the Taliban regime has strongly resisted the fencing project. In 2022, Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Enayatullah Khwarzmi said, “Pakistan has no right to fence the border and create a divide, as it is inappropriate and against the law.” The evidence depicts a strong reaction from Afghanistan to border fencing. In addition, border skirmishes occur from time to time, resulting in causalities and heightened tensions between them. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Report, 2022, “At least six people were killed and 30 were wounded by the Taliban forces’ heavy cross-border artillery bombardment against civilian targets near the Chaman border.” The evidence explicitly shows that the Durand Line issue has unequivocally strained the relations between the two states. Hence, border disputes play a decisive role in contouring Pakistan’s strategic relations with Afghanistan.
- Cross-border terrorism, fraying relations
The second factor that contours Pakistan’s strategic relations with Afghanistan is cross-border terrorism. Since the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, Pakistan has been facing a deadly escalation in militant violence, mainly carried out by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has ideological alliances with the Afghan Taliban. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), “TTP has conducted nearly 600 attacks in Pakistan in 2024 alone, causing 1600 deaths mostly in Afghanistan-bordering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, including 700 of law enforcement personnel.” The evidence underscores a growing security crisis that has gripped Pakistan. Indeed, the United Nations (UN) Security Council Report, 2024, has also revealed the Afghanistan de facto government’s financial and logistical support to TTP. Therefore, the Afghan Taliban’s assistance to the banned terrorist organization has severely constrained the relations between the two, igniting mistrust and apprehensions. Ultimately, to combat terrorism, Pakistan has developed the Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan (IFRP), which expels undocumented Afghan refugees. Sadly, all these events have further fraught their relations. Thus, cross-border terrorism significantly contours Pakistan’s strategic relations with Afghanistan.
- Trade and transit interests, necessitating diplomatic engagements
Finally, trade and transit interests are another significant element that significantly shapes Pakistan’s strategic ties with Afghanistan. Actually, one of Islamabad’s main trading partners is Kabul. According to the State Bank of Pakistan Report, 2024, “Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan have reportedly increased by 92%, from 262.5 million during the same period last year to $504.3 million in the first half of the fiscal year 2024-2025.” This fact depicts that Afghanistan is a major export market for Pakistan, necessitating diplomatic engagements between the two to leverage bilateral relations. Islamabad to engage diplomatically with Kabul. In addition, Afghanistan gives Pakistan a crucial transit route to Central Asian nations, facilitating trade with Tajikistan ($20.24 million in exports), Uzbekistan ($28.04 million in exports), and other nations. In a similar vein, Pakistan’s seaports play a major role in Afghanistan’s foreign trade, as it is a landlocked nation. As a result, both parties are somehow compelled by economic and transit interests to settle their differences amicably and enjoy the full advantages of bilateral cooperation. Therefore, Pakistan’s strategic ties with Afghanistan are unquestionably shaped by their trade and transit interests, which require diplomatic interactions between the two countries.
Potential security challenges for Pakistan from India in the future
Indeed, Pakistan’s neighbouring arch-rival, India, can also pose serious security challenges to it. Delving into the security challenges that Pakistan may face in the future.
- The risk of Indian satellite-based aggression against Pakistan
Primarily, India’s space militarization poses a huge threat to Pakistan’s security in the future. Essentially, India’s advances in space technology, particularly the creation of satellites, ballistic missiles, and anti-satellite missiles, have increased its military capabilities, raising the possibility of satellite-based assaults on Pakistan. According to the Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Report, 2019, “India had successfully tested an anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) by destroying one of its own satellites in outer space. By doing so, India has become the fourth country in the world, after the US, Russia, and China, with the ASAT capability.” This fact depicts that New Delhi can utilize this military advantage against Islamabad, as India would be in a position to use its ASAT capability to disturb the satellite communications and intelligence gathering of its opponent states, like Pakistan. Moreover, India’s space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capability has given New Delhi a technical advantage in carrying out a preemptive strike against Pakistan. This would also provide New Delhi with discernible data and the exact target to attack, changing the landscape of war. Therefore, owing to a significant gap in space technologies, Pakistan may face space-born hostility from India in the near future.
- The danger of India’s growing political influence in the global arena
After that, India’s growing influence in international organizations can potentially undermine Pakistan’s political say in the world. Actually, India’s dominance in global institutions can also limit Pakistan’s ability to shape global narratives on issues like Kashmir, terrorism, water security, and nuclear non-proliferation. Evidently, Pakistan’s membership in BRICS is largely dependent on India’s choice, emphasizing New Delhi’s political clout in international affairs. According to the 2024 Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) Report, 2024, “The first and foremost challenge to Pakistan’s BRICS membership is India’s opposition to Pakistan’s inclusion in the organization.” This fact demonstrates how New Delhi’s control over the global forum may damage Pakistan’s interests. In the same vein, Pakistan’s nuclear program would be jeopardized if New Delhi joined the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), restricting Islamabad’s access to nuclear technology and fuel. This instance highlights how Islamabad would be affected if New Delhi’s worldwide influence increased. Furthermore, India will indeed have a more prominent voice and voting power as a result of its participation in international organizations, enabling it to set global agendas that might not be optimal for Pakistan. Hence, New Delhi’s institutional influence may affect Pakistan’s interest in the international arena.
- The threat of regional isolation owing to the India-Afghan nexus
Aside from that, Pakistan may face regional isolation as a result of India’s increasing involvement in Afghanistan. In essence, India has been taking advantage of Pakistan’s tense and distrustful relationship with Afghanistan to establish itself as a major actor in the region, eroding Islamabad’s influence. According to the Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis (ISSRA) Report, 2024, “India is working to regain leverage, this time with the Taliban government, to facilitate its agenda to keep Pakistan destabilized and to convince Afghanistan to counterbalance Pakistan.” This fact signifies that India uses Afghan soil to perpetuate proxy war in Pakistan. Going further, Kabul and New Delhi have decided to boost trade through Chabahar Port in Iran, bypassing the ports of Karachi and Gwadar. Moreover, in 2021, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan agreed to build a 573-kilometer railway connecting Peshawar and Tashkent via Kabul. This route offers Central Asian Republics (CARs) the shortest and most cost-effective access to the Arabian Sea, transforming Pakistan into a transit hub. However, because of New Delhi’s expanded involvement, Islamabad may be unable to realize the full potential of this initiative. Hence, New Delhi’s prominent role in Kabul may isolate Islamabad.
The potential security challenges for Pakistan from Afghanistan in the future
Going down the ladder, the section mentioned below sheds light on some of the security challenges that Pakistan may face from Afghanistan in the future.
- The threat to national cohesion
To start with, the threat to national cohesion is the pre-eminent security challenge for Pakistan from Afghanistan in the near future. Basically, Afghanistan has been alleged to provide safe havens to the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), an ethno-nationalist militant organization operating from Afghan soil, which desires to control local resources and separate Baluchistan from Pakistan. The dramatic rise of BLA’s terror attacks has regrettably contributed to instability in the province, igniting grievances among citizens against the government. For instance, in November 2024, BLA conducted a suicide attack at a crowded railway station in Baluchistan, raising the death toll to 26 and wounding more than 60 people. This illustration shows how BLA, assisted by Afghanistan, has been undermining people’s right to life and disrupting economic activities in the province. Moreover, in 2024, it also blew up the main gas pipeline of Baluchistan, resulting in the suspension of gas supplies to several cities in Pakistan and leaving citizens struggling for basic needs. Hence, the threat to national cohesion is a serious security challenge for Afghanistan in the near future.
- The likelihood of Afghanistan as a new arch-rival
Furthermore, the likelihood of the emergence of Afghanistan as a new arch-rival owing to its pro-India approach is another significant security challenge for Pakistan from Afghanistan in the near future. Actually, India, driven by its quest to encircle Pakistan strategically, to get access to the Central Asian markets, to counter Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan, and to play its role as a regional hegemon, has resumed its tradition of providing economic and social development support to Afghanistan. According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) Annual Report, 2024, “India has allocated nearly US$ 27 million for assistance to Afghanistan in its 2022–23 fiscal budget, mainly for scholarships for Afghan students, aid for the Afghan people, and existing Indian projects in the country.” The evidence shows that India has been successfully penetrating the Afghan population and is winning their support through soft power. That being the case, in 2022, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Afghanistan thanked India for its humanitarian aid and said, “Our bilateral cooperation would not be influenced by other countries’ inter-rivalry.” This evidence depicts that New Delhi has succeeded in generating pro-Indian sentiments in Kabul. Hence, this would ultimately fan Afghan animosity and hostility towards Islamabad, potentially making Kabul a new arch-rival of Pakistan.
- The possibility of a full-blown Kabul River conflict
Lastly, full-blown conflict owning to Afghanistan’s unilateral construction of dams on the Kabul River can also be a serious security challenge for Pakistan in the near future. Essentially, for Pakistan, apart from meeting the drinking water and sanitation needs of more than two million residents, the river powers the 250-megawatt Warsak Dam, which generates 1100 gigawatt hours of electricity per year. Likewise, the Kabul River meets one-fourth of Afghanistan’s freshwater needs and has become a vital source of livelihood for its population. However, because of a lack of infrastructure, Afghanistan generates only 300 megawatts of electricity, around 2% of the power generated by Pakistan, consequently importing around two-thirds (80%) of its power from neighbours in Central Asia. Therefore, Afghanistan aims to harness the Kabul River hydropower potential to address its energy needs. According to the Pakistan Journal of International Affairs (PJIA), 2022, “Afghanistan, with India’s assistance, is prepared to build 12 dams on the Kabul River on its own, which might decrease water flows into Pakistan, thereby impacting its energy, agricultural, and economic sectors.” This fact reveals that Afghanistan, like India, is likely to have multiple dams, reducing the amount of water available to Pakistan. If this pattern persists, this issue could trigger a water war between Kabul and Islamabad.
How to mitigate the potential security challenges faced by Pakistan from India and Afghanistan: A critical diagnosis
In a critical diagnosis, Pakistan needs to take decisive action to fend off potential security challenges from its neighbours. Actually, the government has a number of options in this area. First, Pakistan can strengthen its cybersecurity capabilities and invest in contemporary air defence systems to protect its vital infrastructure from a satellite-based strike by India. In order to counter Indian influence in international forums and preserve its political clout, Pakistan should also fortify its relations with other nations, especially those in the Middle East and Central Asia. By doing this, Pakistan may counterbalance Indian dominance by assembling a coalition of friendly countries. Furthermore, in terms of strategic security challenges caused by Indian involvement in Afghanistan, Pakistan can seek cooperation from its long-standing partner, China, to oppose Indian dominance in Afghanistan. Then, to avert national fragmentation caused by Taliban backing for terrorists, Pakistan can establish a comprehensive counter-terrorism policy that includes both military and civilian institutions. Finally, to keep Afghanistan from becoming a hostile neighbour, Pakistan should engage in diplomatic efforts to foster collaboration with the Afghan government. This can include collaborative economic endeavours, cultural exchanges, and security cooperation to solve mutual concerns. Thus, by doing this, Pakistan can safeguard its interests and national security while navigating the region’s complicated geopolitical environment.
Conclusion
Conclusively, the complicated web of interactions between Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan is riddled with historical conflicts, territory claims, and security concerns. The Kashmir issue and the water conflict between Pakistan and India, combined with the US-India military alliance, have created a contentious situation. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan has been strained due to terrorism and the Durand Line issue. Furthermore, Pakistan’s neighbours could pose several concerns. India might launch a satellite-based attack, and its sway over international organizations could weaken Pakistan’s political power. Pakistan may face strategic security concerns as a result of India’s involvement in Afghanistan. Additionally, the Taliban’s backing of terrorists could cause the country to fall apart and might also turn Afghanistan into a hostile neighbour like India. Therefore, Pakistan must address such challenges to allay these worries.
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