Write a Short Note on National Security Challenges (for Pakistan)

PMS 2021 Solved Pakistan Affairs Past Papers | Note on National Security Challenges (for Pakistan)

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Outline

1-Introduction

2- Evolution of National Security Threats

3-Pakistan’s Traditional Security Challenges

External Traditional Security Challenges

• ✓ Aggressive Neighbor: India’s Cold Start Doctrine
• ✓ Cross-border Terrorism in Pakistan
• ✓ Insurgency in Balochistan

Internal Traditional Security Challenges

• ✓ Terrorist Organizations
• ✓ Sectarian Violence
• ✓ Organized Crimes

4- Pakistan’s Non-traditional Security Challenges

4.1- External Non-traditional Security Challenges

• ✓ Cyber War
• ✓ Climate Change
• ✓ Epidemics and Pandemics

4.2- Internal Non-traditional Security Challenges

• ✓ Weak Economy
• ✓ Water Insecurity
• ✓ Food Insecurity

5- Steps taken by Pakistan to Address National Security Challenges

• ✓ National Security Policy (2022-26)
• ✓ Cyber Security Policy 2021
• ✓ National Climate Change Policy

6- Conclusion

Answer to the Question

Introduction

Pakistan has traditionally been focused on traditional threats to its sovereignty, mainly arising from India. However, with the passage of time, the nature of threats to the country has undergone a thorough transformation with hostile nations and groups, not choosing direct offensive against the state, rather choosing cyber space, proxy wars, internal fissures as a tool to further their nefarious designs. Moreover, serious threats have emerged from climate change owing to the excessive use of fossil fuels. Additionally, the deep transformation in the political philosophy of nations from a state-centric approach to a citizen-centric approach has led to the need to consider human security. So the country is facing both conventional and non-conventional threats emerging from inside the territory and outside the territory. However, successive governments have perceived these threats and have devised policies to address the national security challenges in a timely and effective manner. In short, the country faces multiple threats from multiple fronts of multiple natures, including its sovereignty and integrity.

Evolution of National Security Threats

In international relations, the term ‘security’ is diverse, and a single definition is not able to encompass its different aspects. Moreover, with the inclusion of terrorism and guerrilla wars, the concept of security gets more diversified. In general, security is protection from all kinds of threats, be it external or internal in nature. David A. Baldwin, a senior political scientist at Princeton University, argues that threats to nation-states in the contemporary era are not limited to traditional ones, but also include non-traditional threats like poverty, trade, economy, and human rights. Traditional threats are considered armed conflicts, where an increase in military might is perceived to be a reliable solution. However, the non-traditional threats do not actively involve harming civilians through weapons, but they involve hurting a population through economic woes, human rights concerns, environmental degradation, and political instability. In non-traditional threats, states in order to address them pursue a strategy of building a robust economy, ensuring justice for all, providing general welfare to their populations, and protecting the environment from excessive pollution-causing activities. Pakistan currently faces both traditional and non-traditional threats.

Pakistan’s Traditional Security Challenges

A- External Traditional Security Challenges

• Aggressive Neighbors: India’s Cold Start Doctrine

India has historically been the country’s largest external conventional threat, making it the focal point of Pakistan Army’s military planning and security calculations. With the passage of time, the success of negotiations and dialogues has seemed futile with India becoming more belligerent in its posture and language vis-à-vis Pakistan. Its doctrinal tactics, like ‘limited war under nuclear overhaul’ and ‘cold start doctrine’ presents the offensive designs of the Indian state which it cherishes against its western neighbor. In response to India’s cold start strategy, Pakistan shifted its nuclear doctrine of ‘nuclear restraint regime’ to ‘credible minimum deterrence’ to deter its foe from any military escalation. Moreover, India’s hefty military spending for troops’ modernization further widens the conventional asymmetry between India and Pakistan. In short, India’s ambitions to become a regional hegemon arising from its excessive pride in its economy and military might, fueled by its political leadership, add to the growing conventional threat to Pakistan.

• Cross-border Terrorism in Pakistan

Pakistan has been confronting the threat of cross-border terrorism for many years, both from its eastern and western neighbors. Terrorists and non-state actors sneak into the Pakistani territory to execute their nefarious designs of creating chaos and instability by bombing, target killings, and attacking security installations. It has taken a heavy toll of civilians and military personnel, along with significant infrastructure damages. The arrest of India’s spy, Kulbhushan Yadev, from Balochistan found in espionage and sabotage activities against Pakistan clearly reflects the looming threat of intrusion of militants and foreign agents of hostile countries into the territory of Pakistan to thwart the stability of the state. Similarly, the infiltration of terrorists from Afghanistan’s territory has been a serious threat that has resulted in significant devastation and destruction in the country for decades. Afghanistan has become a safe haven for a number of terrorist groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), who frequently launch terror attacks inside Pakistan’s territory, claiming the lives of many noncombatants and armed forces personnel, along with infrastructure destruction. A recent United Nations report by the UN Sanctions Monitoring Team in July 2024 says “the TTP continues to operate at a significant scale in Afghanistan and conduct terrorist operations into Pakistan from there, often utilizing Afghans”. Such reports substantiates Pakistan’s claims of cross-border terrorism from its western neighbor. Pakistan has repeatedly raised its voice on international platforms about its threat of cross-border terrorism from its western neighbor and has also urged the Afghan government to take stern actions against these terror outfits operating from its soil, though the Afghan leadership seems hesitant to proceed.

• Insurgency in Balochistan

Insurgency in the Balochistan is considered a conventional threat to the stability of the country, partly attributed to external factors, particularly India, in boasting the insurgents and helping them financially. The hostile countries, in their way to fulfil their evil agendas against Pakistan, use these insurgents as a launching pad to bring instability in the country. India’s overt involvement in disintegration of Pakistan’s eastern wing, now Bangladesh, is a clear precedent of India’s involvement in the domestic affairs of a foreign country, a grave violation of the UN Charter (UNGA 2131XX 1965) on external interferences. Moreover, subsequent admission by India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, on India’s involvement in the support of Mukti-Bahini and resultant dismemberment of Pakistan’s eastern wing testifies Pakistan’s claims. Pakistan has repeatedly raised this issue of India’s involvement in fueling the insurgency in Balochistan on international forums, including the United Nations (UN). For India, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China’s growing presence in a number of South Asian countries, including Pakistan, are a subject of worry, which is reflected from A K Antony’s, Defense Minister of India, statement in a 2013 press conference that “It is a matter of concern for India” that China is taking control of Gwadar port in Arabian Sea.  Keeping in view the destabilizing role of eastern neighbor in the country, Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Maleeha Lodhi, submitted a dossier to the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, in January 2017 containing evidence of India’s involvement in terrorist activities in Balochistan, FATA, and Karachi. So, the insurgency in Balochistan, though rooted in historical grievances, is fanned by the external players, mainly India, to bring perpetual chaos and instability in the country.

B- Internal Traditional Security Challenges

• Terrorist Organizations

Pakistan’s biggest internal security threat is the scourge of terrorism, which it has been facing for past 20 years. According to National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA), terrorist-related activities have taken 83 thousand lives and incurred a financial loss of more than 35 trillion rupees. Similarly, terrorism has inflicted colossal damage to infrastructure. Currently, Pakistan ranks fourth in Global Terrorism Index (GTI) with deaths due to terrorist-related activities mounting by 35 per cent to 689 from 2022 to 2023. In response to the menace, the government has banned 78 militant organizations and has resorted to strict punitive measures against them. In short, terrorism has remained a major internal security threat to the country.

• Sectarian Violence

It is another menace that threatens Pakistan’s stability. Extremism and Sectarianism took its roots due to the Saudi-Iran rivalry, and Zia’s Islamization measures. Consequently, sectarian violence took the lives of thousands of individuals, mostly Shia Muslims, instigated by Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and its offshoot, Laskar-e-Jhangvi (LeT). Subsequently, Salafi Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has also emerged, further intensifying the threat. In March 2022, ISKP bombed a Shia mosque in Peshawar, claiming the lives of 60 people. Moreover, in 2023, a total of 203 people, including 88 armed personnel, have been killed in sectarian violence-related activities. In short, sectarian violence is a grave internal security threat that needs the government’s serious attention.

• Organized Crimes                            

Organized crime (OC) is recognized by NSP (2022-26) as an important internal security threat to the country’s metropolitan areas, business atmosphere and overall economy and has prioritized the objective of combating organized crime in the country. According to Global Organized Crime Index (GOCI), Pakistan’s criminality score is 6.03 out of 10, placing the country on 47^th position in 193 members list and 3^rd in 8 South Asian nations. The reason that emboldens these groups, involved in OCs, such as human trafficking, organ trafficking, arms trafficking, illicit mining and drug trade, is that they are supported by corrupt government officials, mafia-style groups, criminal networks, and well-known groups, like People’s Aman Committee and Altaf Khanani’s money laundering organization. Among other types of OC, arms trafficking is a serious issue that has increased violence due to the easy availability of abundant unlicensed arms in a few areas of the country, like Dara Adam Khel, where low-quality weapons are produced, often utilized by criminals and terrorist groups. Moreover, mafia groups in Pakistan are engaged in activities like racketeering, extortion, and kidnappings. Owing to the strong connections these groups have with authorities, they operate in a friendly environment without any fear of a crackdown from LEAs. In a nutshell, the evil of organized crimes is a serious evil that has threatened the country’s socioeconomic and security landscape.

Pakistan’s Non-traditional Security Challenges

A- External Non-traditional Security Challenges

• Cyber War

With the world entering the 21^st century, the prospects of technology have also opened gates for its destructive usage. Pakistan is facing numerous challenges with the advent of the digital industry in the form of data breaches, misinformation, and propaganda against the state’s institutions. For instance, in 2016, Indian hackers attacked the official website of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to extract sensitive database information.  Moreover, hostile countries take every advantage to air fake news and propagate propaganda to execute their wicked designs. In 2021, it was pointed out by then Information Minister, Fawad Chaudary, that India is employing a vacuous propaganda mechanism with the help of fake social media accounts. According to him, some 845 websites were busy in propagating misinformation and the campaign was initiated by India’s news agency, ANI. Additionally, Indian channels used the Noor Mukadam case to build a negative perception about Pakistan by asserting that Pakistan is not safe for women.  All these incidents clearly reflect the gravity of cyber-related attacks to the country’s national security.

• Climate Change

Pakistan, despite contributing less than 1% in greenhouse gas emissions, faces a serious non-traditional security threat from the changing climate. According to Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is the 5^th most vulnerable country to the climate change phenomenon. Pakistan has seen its repercussions in the form of droughts, floods, storms and cyclones. In 2022, Pakistan saw a flash flood that cost 14.9 billion dollars to the country and affected the lives of 33 million people. Moreover, the severity of the threat can be understood by the World Bank prediction that the combined effect of climate-change events, environmental degradation and air pollution have the potential to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by 18-20% by 2050. In short, the menace of climate change is a serious non-conventional threat that is unleashing its negative impacts in the country.

• Epidemics and Pandemics

Epidemics and Pandemics remain a non-conventional threat to the country’s national security, as the nation has faced in recent years. The recent pandemic ‘COVID-19’ had badly affected the country because the stock market plummeted, factories went closed, global trade and supply chains were severely disturbed, airports were abandoned, offices had stopped their operations and shops remained locked to contain the pandemic outbreak. All this unleashed negative impacts on country’s economy and different aspects of human security, including food availability, health services, and employment. Moreover, in 2020, Locust swarms destroyed large tracts of agricultural land, severely impacting the yield of cotton, wheat, maize, and other crops; consequently, Pakistan missed its production target for wheat by around two million tonnes, pushing the country to import wheat for the first time since 2014. At present, Pakistan is struggling to curb the rising number of measles and polio cases, along with stringent measures to prevent the nation from MPOX virus. In short, epidemics and pandemics have been a non-traditional threat to national security of the country for many years.

B- Internal Non-traditional Security Challenges

• Weak Economy

The poor economy is one of the biggest threats to Pakistan’s national security as it lays the ground for most non-traditional challenges, such as human security, public health, food security, and energy security. Poor GDP growth, high debt profile, mismanagement, corruption, and inconsistent economic policies exacerbate the deteriorating socio-economic conditions in the country, resulting in poverty, unemployment, and high cost of living. Weak economic conditions have led to general discouragement, disillusionment of youth and disappointment of businesses in the country. The World Bank, in its biannual Pakistan Development Outlook report, cautioned that around 10m people in the country are facing an imminent threat of entering poverty, stemming from poor economic growth rate –trailing behind the country’s population growth rate- and inflation. Moreover, the Washington-based lending institution warned that rising cost of living may potentially lead to an increase in out-of-school children coupled with delayed medical treatments, especially for poor families.  In short, the non-conventional threat of a weak economy is a serious threat that has a wide impact on human security and severe implications for the country.

• Water Insecurity

Water security is a serious non-conventional internal security threat to Pakistan. At the time of partition of India, per capita availability of water was 5000 cubic meters per capita, but today it has reached to 1000 cubic meters per capita. Former chairman of Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) stated the country is moving towards water scarcity, and by 2025, the situation will aggravate further. The ultimate factors responsible for water scarcity are water storage deficiency, regulation issues, and careless consumption patterns, which have worsened the country’s water deficiency. Moreover, the growing population, rise in urbanization and global warming have accelerated the water shortage issue in the country. As a result, Pakistan currently ranks 14^th among 17 high baseline water stressed countries. In short, the water shortage issue is a serious issue for the country that is getting worse with each passing day due to climate change and growing population.

• Food Insecurity

Food insecurity is one imminent non-conventional threat the country is currently confronting. According to the Ministry of Health and UNICEF’s National Nutritional Survey 2018, only 63.1 of the population in Pakistan is food secure, with KP and Gilgit-Baltistan more food secure than Sindh and Balochistan. Moreover, Pakistan ranks among countries with high under-nourishment as per capita intake of beef, chicken, fish, milk, vegetables, and fruits is 6-10 times lower than developed nations. In the Global Hunger Index, Pakistan ranks 99th out of 126 nations, with the level of hunger status as “serious”. The factors contributing to and aggravating the insecurity are poverty; import dependence for essential items, like pulses, fruits, vegetables and oilseeds; rising prices of meat and dairy products; population growth, and governance issues, such as the ineffective penetration of social protection programs. In a word, Pakistan’s food insecurity is yet another non-traditional front the country is currently struggling with.

Steps taken by Pakistan to address national security challenges.

Pakistan has devised several policies in its 77-year life to deal with national security challenges. It includes National Action Plan, National Internal Security Policy, National Security Policy, Cyber Security Policy and National Climate Change Policy. All these policies aim to bolster the national security, but their ultimate contribution to national security is totally reliant on their due implementation; otherwise, the policies will be mere stacks of papers.

• National Security Policy (NSP) 2022-26

NSP is the first ever national security policy document, which is citizen-centric in its approach. It considers economic security as its main focus because a flourishing economy will be able to efficiently tackle both traditional and non-traditional threats. It aims to promote national cohesion by promoting unity in diversity, consolidating the federal nature of the country, and ensuring transparency and effectiveness in public services delivery. It also envisions to strengthen the economy by tackling the imminent economic challenges, moving to a market-based energy sector and tapping Pakistan’s pivotal location for trade, and investment. Additionally, it focuses on defence and territorial integrity by ensuring border security, fighting hybrid warfare and reinforcing space-based technology to meet future challenges. Further, it also talks about internal security by strengthening the authority of the state across the country, adopting the policy of zero-tolerance against terrorism, extremism, and sectarianism, and fighting the evil of organized crime. Moreover, from a foreign policy perspective, it aims to normalize relations with immediate neighbors, find a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute, and enhance the role of economic diplomacy in its foreign policy initiatives. Lastly, from a human security angle, it aims to formulate policies to encourage skill development and entrepreneurship, guarantee food security, and improve healthcare along with the will to strengthen disease surveillance and prevention. In a nutshell, it is a comprehensive policy endeavor by the government to combat rising traditional and non-traditional threats to national security of the country.

National Cyber Security Policy 2021

Although the country already had a number of initiatives taken on national and provincial level to combat cybercrimes, like Electronic Transaction Ordinance, 2002 (covering only electronic financial transactions and records), Investigation for Fair Trial Act (IFTA) – 2013, Pakistan Telecommunication (Re-Organization) Act – 1996 and Prevention of Electronic Crime Act (PECA) 2016, the need for inter-departmental coordination and a holistic approach pushed the need to devise a more comprehensive national policy. Consequently, the country successfully devised its first ever detailed policy to combat rising tides of cybercrimes in 2021. The policy is devised with the objective of establishing governance and institutional setup to combat the menace; improving security of national information systems and infrastructures; creating a protection and information sharing mechanism at all levels to monitor, detect, protect and respond to cyber threats to national ICT; guarantying the integrity of ICT products, systems and services by testing, screening, forensics and accreditation; protecting the online privacy of the citizens; inculcating cybersecurity awareness; and producing cyber security professionals through capacity building. As a result of the policy, a Cyber Governance Policy Committee (CGPC) has been constituted to lend federal ownership to policy initiatives related to cyber governance and security. CGPC is responsible for strategic supervision over national cyber security issues. Additionally, the National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency (NCCIA) was established in 2024 and aimed to combat the evil of hacking, fraudulent online activities, cyber bullying, and abuse of social media platforms. In short, the Cyber Policy 2021 is quite comprehensive and considers the critical areas of cyber security to lead the country towards a secure digital Pakistan.

National Climate Change Policy (NCCP)

In 2012, Pakistan developed its first national climate change policy aimed at developing climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptation to the changing climate. However, after the Paris Climate Accord in 2015, Pakistan also opted for global emission reduction efforts. NCCP 2021 is an updated policy that sheds light on both adaptation and mitigation efforts with a focus on nature-based solutions. The policy also highlights the country’s efforts, such as the Billion Tree Tsunami Initiative, Urban Forest Project, Clean Green Pakistan Movement, and Protected Areas and National Park Initiatives. Additionally, in the policy the susceptibilities of various sectors to climate change have been identified and appropriate adaptation measures have been recommended. These cover policy measures to address issues in various sectors such as water, agriculture, forestry, coastal areas, biodiversity and other vulnerable ecosystems. Additionally, it stresses the significance of disaster preparedness, capacity building, institutional strengthening, technology transfer, and international cooperation to effectively tackle climate change. In a word, the policy is a good initiative by the government to address the country’s growing climate change concerns.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s security challenges have greatly diversified with the passage of time from initial threats coming from India to emerging threats arising from climate change, pandemics, digitalization, and human security concerns, such as food security and water security. Realizing the gravity of these threats, the country has devised several policies to combat the growing national security challenges; however, their effectiveness and success ultimately lie in the country’s will and determination to implement them in true letter and spirit.

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