CSS Special 2023 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | Impacts of China’s Diplomacy in Iran Saudia Rivalry
The following question of CSS Current Affairs 2023 Special is solved by Sir Ammar Hashmi, the best Current Affairs Coach, on the guided pattern of Sir Syed Kazim Ali, which he taught to his students, scoring the highest marks in compulsory subjects for years. This solved past paper question is uploaded to help aspirants understand how to crack a topic or question, how to write relevantly, what coherence is, and how to include and connect ideas, opinions, and suggestions to score the maximum.
Question Breakdown
The first part of the question deals with China’s diplomatic achievements in the region. The second and major part concerns the impacts of China’s active role in the region, specifically Saudi and Iranian rapprochement and the Middle East generally.
Outline
1-Introduction
2-An overview of China’s proactive diplomacy in the Middle East
3-A bird’s-eye view of the rapprochement deal between Saudi and Iran
4-Impacts of Saudi and Iran’s rapprochement on the region’s geopolitics
- ✓ changing political dynamics of Israel
- ✓ Gulf Arab states’ security concerns and changing political scenario
- ✓ Changing political dynamics in Iraq
- ✓ Changing geopolitical priorities in Syria and Yemen due to the hope of eliminating the proxies of Iran and Saudi Arabia
- ✓ Saudi-Iran rapprochement and changing international political order in the region
- ✓ Impact of the deal on the geopolitics of Pakistan
- ✓ Changing political dynamics in SCO
- ✓ Shift in geopolitical tendencies of Saudi Arabia from the US to China
5-Critical Analysis
6-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
restore diplomatic relations as part of a Chinese-sponsored initiative to reduce tensions across the Middle East. After a decade of bitter hostility, this was a significant breakthrough because these two countries escalated many wars and proxy clashes in the region. And these clashes and tensions were affecting the geopolitics of the world. China saw the gap as a mediator in the region and successfully cashed the opportunity to boost its regional and international power. Moreover, this deal has had numerous geopolitical impacts, such as empowering Muslim countries’ unity, changing the tilt of Saudi Arabia towards China, and shifts in regional economic strategies. Furthermore, Iraq and Yemen would experience significant changes in their political policies. Besides, Pakistan, as a Muslim country bordered by Iran and bonding with Saudi Arabia, can cash in on the opportunity to minimize sectarian clashes and maximize economic and diplomatic power in the region. Lastly, this deal will impact the global balance of power in the years ahead.
An overview of China’s proactive diplomacy in the Middle East
China has been struggling for decades to maximize its diplomatic power in the Middle East and the world, generally due to the strong hands of the US in this domain. It was China’s initiative under the Global Security Initiative (GSI) signed on 21 February 2023 to promote political resolution of regional conflicts and achieve political, diplomatic, and economic power worldwide. In the last decade, China shifted its focus to the soft power of diplomacy when it found that only a strong economy cannot upgrade its position in world politics. Therefore, its diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, so far, have achieved maximum objectives.
A bird’s-eye view of the rapprochement deal between Saudi and Iran
The rapprochement deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran considerably changed Middle Eastern geopolitics. Historically, the two nations have been rivals, often clashing over regional influence and sectarian differences—Saudi Arabia is a predominantly Sunni Muslim nation, and Iran is a Shiite power. Their competition has been evident in various conflicts, including Yemen and Syria. They both agreed to cooperate in the diplomatic and economic domains. Moreover, both countries agreed to minimize regional conflicts and promote regional stability through dialogue.
Analyzing the impacts of Saudi and Iran’s rapprochement on the region’s geopolitics
The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran will have profound impacts on the Middle Eastern region as a whole and world politics as a whole. Some of the most significant impacts are as follows.
- Changing political dynamics of Israel.
Israel’s political leadership across the board sees Iran, especially its nuclear program, as the primary strategic threat to the Jewish state and has sought to counter it through international sanctions and diplomatic isolation, as well as a credible military threat. Iran is a significant threat to Israel’s existence, as quoted by Israel’s PM in an interview with foreign media. This rapprochement would change the political dynamics of Iran and Israel. Israel would take this deal as a threat, and Iran would see it as an opportunity to counter Israel’s devastating aggression on Palestinians.
- Gulf Arab states’ security concerns and change in their geopolitics
Beyond improving bilateral relations, the agreement may also help lessen tensions in the broader Gulf region. Officials in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman all lauded the deal as a move toward stability and prosperity that would benefit all sides. A senior Qatari official told Crisis Group that the accord was a “positive first step” but that Saudi Arabia would need time to regain trust in Iranian intentions after years of hostility. Due to the Iran and Saudi clashes, peace in the Gulf region was impossible to achieve in the past. Still, these countries are positively experiencing a change in their geopolitics as they hope to achieve political stability in the region.
- Changing political dynamics in Iraq
The Saudi-Iranian deal has the potential to lower tensions in Iraq. Baghdad has been trying to bring its two assertive neighbors closer together for some time. Iran is the bigger of the two – its border with Iraq is twice as long as Saudi Arabia’s – and it enjoys close religious, economic and cultural ties with many Iraqis. It has substantial political clout as well; in Tehran, in 2003, after the US invasion, promoted the culture of proxies in Iraq to destabilize different opposite groups. On the other hand, America and Saudi Arabia bilaterally targeted Iran’s proxies in Iraq. As a result, Iraq’s political stability, peace, and economic sustainability were affected adversely. Now, a ray of hope for Iraq has surfaced, which would change the political dynamics of Iraq and the region.
- Changing geopolitical priorities in Syria and Yemen due to the hope of eliminating proxies of Iran and Saudi
The Saudi-Iranian deal coincided with the eighth anniversary of a Saudi-led coalition’s military intervention in Yemen to dislodge the insurgent group Ansar Allah, better known as the Houthis, which enjoys Iranian support. The Iran-Saudi deal comes three years into the longest ceasefire in Syria’s civil war. On the other hand, Yemen would see a significant breakthrough after Saudi Arabia’s barred intervention. Therefore, it can be said that the deal would change the geopolitical situation in Yemen and Syria and would have a positive impact.
- Saudi-Iran rapprochement and changing international political order in the region
The deal has the potential to impact the world in many domains due to its multilateral roots in the political grounds of different regions. This reflects a more significant tectonic shift in the international order where, as mentioned above, American unipolarity is on the wane and a new multipolar order, led by Russia and China, and supported by the BRICS states [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa], is being born. China eyes a leading role in the world, and this deal has changed the perspective of many Middle Eastern countries as America has been seen as the perpetrator of war, not of peace.
- Impact of the deal on the geopolitics of Pakistan
The deal has great potential for Pakistan as well. This will undoubtedly impact Pakistan’s geopolitics as Saudi Arabia and Iran are strategic and trade partners in the Middle East. For example, ‘IPRI’s Research Paper published in May 2024, named Saudi-Iran Rapprochement and Impact on Pakistan’ highlights that Pakistan’s political stability can be achieved through this deal by minimizing sectarian issues, minimizing Iran’s sceptical role in Balochistan. Moreover, Pakistani trade can also be enhanced as both rival countries have been turned into allies, which would impact Pakistani geopolitics in the region. Hence, Pakistan has great opportunities to improve its geopolitical power by using this deal to drive prosperity.
- Changing political dynamics in SCO
The Saudi-Iran peace deal has potential implications for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a political, economic, and security alliance primarily focused on Central Asia and encompassing China, Russia, and several Central Asian countries. The SCO’s primary goals include promoting regional stability, economic development, and combating terrorism. As a member of SCO, Iran would enhance its trade, security and economic power by engaging with China and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has become a dialogue partner in SCO, which will impact political dynamics after the deal. China and Russia will use both to enhance their regional diplomatic ties.
- Shift in geopolitical tendencies of Saudi Arabia from the US to China
The shift in Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical tendencies from the United States to China reflects a significant realignment in global politics; after this deal, Saudi Arabia would choose China as an ally in difficult times. China has become Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, with growing economic ties in sectors beyond oil, including technology, construction, and renewable energy. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative and Saudi Arabia’s aim to reduce its reliance on the U.S. and enhance its position in a multipolar world would supersede America, and China would get a more prominent position after the deal. This would impact the region’s overall geopolitics.
Critical analysis
The deal portrays the changing political dynamics in the region due to emerging China’s diplomatic efforts and economic assistance. The US absolutely would make a policy to counter China. Still, Iran and Saudi Arabia’s mutual goals will be barricaded in the way of America, and it is because China has the potential to fulfil the demands of these countries by itself. In the case of Pakistan, this rapprochement is seen as an opportunity to eliminate sectarian issues and halt trade with Iran due to Saudi pressure and hope for Saudi loans to meet financial deficits. Therefore, it is the deal which can bring total peace in the region by channelizing proxies in Yemen and Syria and can make Israel a culprit in international politics through the unity of these two larger Muslim states.
Conclusion
The Saudi-Iran rapprochement marks a pivotal shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, signalling a move towards reduced regional tensions and greater stability. Both nations aim to foster economic cooperation and address shared security concerns by mending ties, potentially influencing regional dynamics and mitigating conflicts. This thawing of relations could also impact global power structures, with China’s role as a mediator highlighting its growing influence. As Saudi Arabia and Iran seek to balance their regional ambitions with cooperative engagements, the broader implications for Middle Eastern alliances and international diplomacy will likely unfold in the coming years.
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