CSS Current Affairs | Effects of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Neighbours
The following question of CSS Current Affairs is solved by Ihtesham Hussain under the supervision of Howfiv’s Pakistan Affairs and Current Affairs Coaches. She learnt how to attempt 20 marks question and essay writing from Sir Syed Kazim Ali, Pakistan’s best CSS and PMS English essay and precis teacher with the highest success rate of his students. This solved past paper question is attempted on the pattern taught by Sir to his students, scoring the highest marks in compulsory and optional subjects for years, and uploaded to help aspirants understand how to crack a topic or question, how to write relevantly, what coherence is, and how to include and connect ideas, opinions, and suggestions to score the maximum.
Outline
1-Introduction
2- Current situation of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war
3-Impacts on neighbouring countries
- ✓Refugee crisis
- Case in point: According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 5.9 million Ukrainian Refugees have fled to Europe, of which 2.2 million are covered by the Regional Refugees Response Plan as of January 2024 data.
- ✓Inflation
- Case in point: According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the prices of palladium, maize, sunflower, and wheat increased by 4.4%, 24.2%, 175%, and 37%, respectively, in 2022 compared to 2019.
- ✓Disrupted trade
- Case in point: According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the trade volumes of wheat and maize declined by 18.7% and 2.4%, respectively, in 2022 compared to 2019.
- ✓Food crisis
- Case in point: Ukraine and Russia are key exporters of wheat, barley, corn, and cooking oil, particularly to African and Middle Eastern countries.
- ✓Energy crisis
- A case in point is the ban on Russian oil, gas, and diesel by the United States of America (USA) and the European Union (EU).
- ✓Reshaping Geopolitics
- Case in point: This conflict has rattled the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU), and the United Nations (UN), forcing countries to take sides in ways that have led to escalating tensions and diplomatic shifts.
4- Critical analysis
5- Conclusion
Answer to the Question
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, once initiated on the eastern borders of Ukraine in 2014, has now turned into a full-fledged war accompanied by massive causalities and destruction in February 2022. Currently, Ukraine has recaptured 58% of its territory, whereas Russia has confiscated 18% of Ukraine. War is going on in the northeast Kharkiv region. Moreover, Ukraine has received $279 billion in aid. This war has inflicted around 30,000 causalities and massive dislocation of masses. As a result, the neighbouring countries suffer a lot regarding the refugee crisis, inflation, disrupted trade, food crisis, energy crisis, and reshaping geopolitics. About 5.9 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe, price hikes of commodities including palladium, maize, sunflower and wheat, reduction in the trade volume of wheat and maize, energy crises due to a ban on Russian hydrocarbons, and shifting geopolitics are the major shocks the neighbouring countries are facing right now.
Before knowing how this conflict has affected the neighbouring countries, it is imperative to understand the current situation. Currently, during the two years of this war, Ukraine has recovered 54% of its territory from Russia, but still 18% of Ukraine’s territory is under Russian control. Although Ukraine has adopted a defensive mode, Russia has opened a new war front in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region. At the same time, Russia is bombarding Ukrainian cities and blocking its ports. On the other hand, Ukraine has increased drone attacks on Russian infrastructure and ships. Ukraine has received $278 billion in aid since January 2022. Till now, the sufferings of Ukraine include 30,000 causalities, the internal displacement of 3.7 million people, and the fleeing of 6.5 million people. A total of 14 million people need humanitarian assistance.
The following figure shows the current situation of the Ukraine War.
The neighbouring countries are suffering a lot from this conflict. First, neighbouring countries, especially European countries, face severe refugee crises. Countries that share the borders with Ukraine, such as Belarus, Hungary, Poland, and Romania, are the most affected. As of January 2024, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) recorded 5.9 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe, 2.2 million of whom were in the countries covered by the Ukraine Situation: Regional Refugee Response Plan. As the refugee influx poses economic implications to countries, these countries will face economic crises in the near future. Now, the question arises as to how refugee influx hampers a country’s economy. The answer lies in the fact that refugees share the resources that the citizens of the host country use. This sharing lowers the citizens’ and refugees’ standard of living because the same resources have been divided among a more significant number of people.
Second, the neighbouring countries have witnessed a lingering inflation crisis. No doubt, these are caused by the disruption of global supply chains. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), prices of palladium, maize, sunflower and wheat increased by 4.4%, 24.2%, 175%, and 37%, respectively, in 2022 compared to 2019. The law of supply and demand governs this price hike. Since war has halted industries and agriculture, it has resulted in less production and supply. The lower supplies resulted in higher demands and price hikes. Hence, inflation has captivated countries, especially those dependent on Russia and Ukraine.
Third, trade has been disrupted across the Russian-Ukraine region. As countries are busy at war, neither country can focus on trade, which decreases trade volumes. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the trade volumes of wheat and maize declined by 18.7% and 2.4%, respectively, in 2022 compared to 2019. The WTO is continuously monitoring these fluctuations. The reason is the disruption of the global supply chain due to the conflict. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat buyer, depends on about 80 per cent of its imports from Russia and Ukraine. Thus, this conflict has severely impacted the trade in the region.
Fourth, a tremendous food crisis is being suffered by the countries that were largely dependent on Russia and Ukraine. This crisis is because Russia and Ukraine are the world’s primary food baskets. According to the National Public Radio (NPR), the USA- Ukraine and Russia- are key exporters of wheat, barley, corn and cooking oil, particularly to African and Middle Eastern countries. The African countries trading with these two are Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Western Sahara. On the other hand, Middle Eastern countries training with these two are Egypt, Gulf Arab states, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Yemen. Thus, the food crisis is the fate of those countries dependent on Russia and Ukraine.
Fifth, the energy crisis is prevalent all across the globe, especially in countries neighbouring the conflict zone. The reason is that Russia is the primary stakeholder in the world’s oil and liquidated natural gas (LNG) reserves. Russia’s lion shares are evident from its 3rd ranking in oil production and 4th ranking in LNG export across the Globe. Because they shared borders with Europe, the European countries were the major importers of Russian oil and LNG. As a result of these conflicts, the United States of America (USA) and the European Union (EU) have banned Russian oil and LNG. This situation has caused a severe energy crisis in the neighbouring European countries.
Last, geopolitics dynamics were observed across neighbouring countries. For instance, Turkey, despite being a member of the North Atlantic Organization (NATO), has increased its trade with Russia since the start of the war. This conflict has rattled NATO, the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN), forcing countries to take sides in ways that have led to escalating tensions and diplomatic shifts. In this way, a change in the geopolitical landscape is witnessed. Developing countries like Pakistan, a fair-weather ally of the USA, are seen extending hands of friendship to Russia for importing cheaper oil and LNG. The changing geopolitical environment reflects a new realignment in neighbouring countries and across the globe.
The conflicts have never come up with positive outcomes. The same is the case with the Russian-Ukraine conflict. The impact of this conflict is not limited to Russia and Ukraine only, but its scale is beyond these two countries. Therefore, it has negatively impacted the neighbouring countries and the entire globe. Since the neighbouring countries suffered the most from the conflict, a close analysis of their sufferings is necessary. The neighbouring countries, especially European countries, have suffered greatly regarding the refugee crisis, inflation, disrupted trade, food crisis, energy crisis, and reshaping geopolitics. These sufferings of neighbouring Europe can be witnessed in the words of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said, “Putin is bringing suffering and destruction to his direct neighbours; he is violating the sovereignty and borders of Ukraine.”
In a nutshell, the neighbouring countries, especially European countries, have suffered a lot in refugee crisis, inflation, disrupted trade, food crisis, energy crisis, and reshaping geopolitics. About 5.9 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe, price hikes of commodities including palladium, maize, sunflower and wheat, reduction in the trade volume of wheat and maize, energy crises due to a ban on Russian hydrocarbons, and shifting geopolitics are the major shocks the neighbouring countries are facing right now. The situation demands an immediate solution to the conflicts through a ceasefire resulting from negotiations. There is a dire need for mediation endeavours of international platforms like the United Nations. So that not only neighbouring countries but the entire globe can be saved from the shocks of this conflict.
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