CSS Current Affairs | Pakistan’s Foreign Policy amidst the Ukraine War
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Outline
1-Introduction
2-Overview of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
3-Analysis of Pakistan’s current foreign policy regarding the war
4-Prospective Foreign Policy Options for Pakistan
- ✓To maintain a neutral stance and safeguard national interests
- ✓To mediate potential resolutions between the warring group
- ✓To use the platform of regional cooperation and promote regional peace
- ✓To navigate diplomatically with allies on both sides
- ✓To provide humanitarian assistance to the displaced people
- ✓To mend relationships with its neighbours and guard against future threats
5-Future of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Critical Analysis
6-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
The Russia-Ukraine 2022 War has disrupted the world, reeling from post-pandemic economic decline and viability. With broad-spectrum ramifications travelling like ripples across the international community, the conflict has disrupted the global supply chain, created food insecurity across the globe, and put the Eurasian continent in a dangling peril. Accordingly, it has become imperative for a country’s foreign policy to successfully navigate the available options regarding this war and safeguard its interests, security, and resources. Indeed, Pakistan has also been face-to-face with the choice. While Pakistan could take a hardline stance as it has done in the past, the country’s foreign office has issued a policy of neutrality and stuck by it through the following months and years as it best suits its interests and security. Nevertheless, there are some steps that Pakistan can explore further to navigate the current scenario best. This answer explores all the possible foreign policy options for Pakistan; on top of its current stance, it can strategically make diplomatic efforts towards what best suits its interests.
Overview of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The history and grievances between Russia and Ukraine span centuries, with many complex factors influencing decisions and policies on both sides. Notwithstanding, the reasons behind the current aggression can be narrowed down to security and deterrence. First, the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has warned against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) expansion in Europe and how it poses a security threat to Russia. For instance, at the 2007 Munich Conference, Putin reiterated: “NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders. This expansion represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended?” Undoubtedly, a buffer zone like Ukraine, with minimal distance to Moscow being part of a Western security pact, poses a direct threat to Russia, and the 2022 invasion is a Russian manifestation of attempting to deter Ukraine. All in all, the invasion has been prolonged far longer than predicted; the Russian aim for a swift victory and the Ukrainian dream of regaining its lost areas cannot be fulfilled now, and both countries are at a stalemate.
Analysis of Pakistan’s current foreign policy regarding the war
“Our foreign policy is one of friendliness and goodwill towards all the nations of the world.”
– Quaid-e-Azam, Muhammad Ali Jinnah
When the war broke out, Pakistan found itself in a peculiar position. The then-Prime Minister, Imran Khan, was formally visiting Russia to revive bilateral ties and energy cooperation. The PM’s stance encompassed the foreign policy directives established by the founder, Quaid-e-Azam’s principles. While an active Western stance could strengthen Pakistan’s ties with the USA and the EU and pave the way for potential loans and aid, it would aggravate relations with Russia and pro-Russian allies and drastically impact its interests, national economy, and energy security. On the other hand, tilting towards a pro-Russian stance could strengthen the country’s bilateral ties and trade with Russia and Russian allies; it would also aggravate relations with the Western allies, block its reliance on international loans, and pose a security dilemma. Hence, in synthesis, a neutral stance best suits and safeguards Pakistan’s interests; the following months after the war have proved the longevity of the country’s stand.
Prospective Foreign Policy Options for Pakistan
At the same time, Pakistan has some prospective foreign policy options that it should explore to strategically and diplomatically navigate the ongoing war in its favour.
- 1-To maintain a neutral stance and safeguard national interests
First and foremost, Pakistan should maintain its neutral stance and not give away to pressures of condemning one side or the other. As the above analysis revealed, a pro-Western or pro-Russian stance can make the country a pawn between two powers again. For instance, during the Cold War, taking a pro-Western stance tanked Pakistan’s relationship with Russia—the most significant energy exporter in the world. The 2022 visit to Russia was the first visit by a head of state in two decades. It shows the importance of learning from the previous century’s mistakes and how a tilt towards one side can cost Pakistan as much as it has done before. Hence, the country must maintain a neutral stance and safeguard its national interests.
- 2-To mediate potential resolutions between the warring group
Moreover, Pakistan can take specific steps to mediate potential resolutions between Russia and Ukraine. As a neutral party, it possesses the credentials to take such steps as it would also promote regional peace and security. To demonstrate Pakistan’s silent and supportive role in mediating the differences between the US and China, as acknowledged by the renowned US foreign minister Henry Kissinger in a 2021 event that marked 50 years of bilateral relationships between the two states. Similarly, Pakistan can play a key role in potential resolutions and diplomatically resolve the underlying issues.
- 3-To use the platform of regional cooperation and promote regional peace
In addition, Pakistan can employ a platform of regional cooperation, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), to promote regional peace and security. The war has created a security dilemma in the Eurasian region, which can further derail the security situation in the region. Nevertheless, Pakistan can advocate for regional peace by using the SCO platform, for one of the organisation’s objectives is “to jointly ensure and maintain peace, security and stability in the region,” and Pakistan is set to host the SCO summit in October this year. Thus, by strengthening ties among the member states, the region can collectively move towards peace and security and safeguard itself against future transnational disruptor events.
- 4-To navigate diplomatically with allies on both sides
Furthermore, Pakistan can diplomatically navigate with allies on both sides to maintain a strategic balance. To prevent misunderstandings that can result in souring relations, the country should keep its offices and channels open to communicate and reiterate its policy. For instance, it should diplomatically navigate with China, Saudi Arabia, and the US in its interests; falling through with any of its allies can drastically impact Pakistan and its fragile economic and political situation, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Therefore, the country must maintain a delicate balance, and it would also provide a solid base for it to navigate the ascending multipolar world.
- 5-To provide humanitarian assistance to the displaced people
As such, the war has had a drastic impact on the much smaller Ukraine, displacing more than 3.5 million people to other parts of the country and the continent. Pakistan has provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in the spirit of neutrality and sympathy for the affected people. For instance, according to Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the country has sent more than 23 tonnes of humanitarian assistance to the people of Ukraine since 2022. Similarly, Pakistan can build on this by providing medical aid, as it has continuously contributed to the UN peacekeeping missions.
- 6-To mend relationships with its neighbours and guard against future threats
Lastly, Pakistan can stand to mend its precarious relationships with its neighbours to guard against the dilemma of continuous insecurity it has found itself in. In today’s global and interconnected world, it is impossible to be economically and politically secure without establishing beneficial bilateral ties with one’s neighbours. Much like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Pakistan can make efforts to economically and politically integrate with its neighbours, starting from Iran and then with Afghanistan and India. With strong ties with its neighbours, the country can withstand future threats and protect itself against volatile geopolitical situations.
Future of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Critical Analysis
In a robust analysis, it can be stated that the current dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war are stalemates at best. The enthusiasm and international support that followed from the international community in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has fizzled out, and only the European and Western communities are pushing ahead with sanctions and such. Moreover, Russia’s entire national debt as of July 2023 is only 250.8 billion dollars, equivalent to about 15% of Russian annual GDP. In contrast, according to the Financial Times, Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP is 320% (350 billion dollars). The research reveals the disproportional impacts of the war. As such, the Russian and Ukrainian authorities have released separate statements about the war’s end by the end of 2024. For now, it is challenging to declare who the winner is as both countries are failing to achieve their purpose in the war, but it remains a fact that Ukraine has suffered far more damage economically.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine war has been a global disruptor since 2022. In the last two years, other transnational geopolitical events have also managed to divide the world, like Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, Palestine. To survive and benefit in such a volatile world order, Pakistan needs to think liberally and expand its foreign policy options on the already-established principles. The country can fully realise its strategic and diplomatic aims by meditating on different prospective policy options. The proposed steps, like maintaining a neutral stance, facilitating resolutions, advocating regional peace, providing humanitarian assistance, and mending relationships, can positively influence the socioeconomic and political scenarios of the country.
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