CSS Pakistan Affairs | Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Since American Withdrawal from Afghanistan
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Outline
1-Introduction
2-Abrupt withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan and Its Domino effect on Pakistan
3-Changing Dynamics of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy since American Withdrawal from Afghanistan
- ✓Shift from a U.S.-Centric Policy to a Regional Focus
- Decreased U.S. influence and aid after the withdrawal
- Pakistan’s pivot towards China, Russia, and other regional players
- ✓Recalibration of Relations with the United States
- Pakistan’s efforts to maintain a balanced relationship with both the U.S and China
- U.S. expectations from Pakistan regarding counterterrorism and regional stability
- ✓Deepening Strategic Partnership with China
- Security cooperation and shared interests in regional stability
- Afghanistan’s potential integration into BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) and Pakistan’s role
- ✓Economic Diplomacy as a Foreign Policy Priority
- Shift towards promoting trade, investment, and connectivity
- Focus on enhancing regional trade and infrastructure development
4-Critical Analysis
5-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
Foreign policy is one of the tiers that helps a country strengthen its footing on the global landscape. From security centered foreign policy to geo-economic policies, Pakistan has faced numerous challenges that led to a significant change in its foreign policy, especially post withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan. Pakistan shares a complex history with Afghanistan, filled with strained relationships over security concerns, territorial issues, and refugee crises. Pakistan witnessed a dynamic change in its foreign policy after the American troops left Afghanistan abruptly after two decades. The USA withdrawal left a power vacuum in the region, leaving Pakistan in a challenging situation to deal with the resurgence of the Taliban, internal issues, and security threats from India. It was the time period when Pakistan had to take pragmatic measures to design its foreign policy in light of current regional instability and cater to the Taliban government along with the influx of refugees entering Pakistan. This answer sheds light on the changing dimension of Pakistan’s foreign policy since the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Abrupt Withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan and its Domino Effect on Pakistan
America, along with the NATO forces, fought a war on terror for nearly twenty years, and after witnessing defeat at the hands of the Taliban, they left a power vacuum behind. This power vacuum exacerbated the instability of a region that was already in shambles. Pakistan had to face numerous challenges, such as the refugee crisis, the resurgence of the Taliban, terrorism, extremism, border security concerns, regional instability, and smuggling. Whereas, in Afghanistan, issues like humanitarian crises, lack of economic growth, political instability, global isolation, and backwardness thrusted the country into multiple other crises. The legalized use of weapons and rising insurgencies in both countries played a crucial role in disturbing the social fabric of the region. The narrative of Jihad, deeply rooted in extremism, gave birth to the culture of weapons, thereby increasing the wave of terrorism in the region. Moreover, Pakistan claims that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is receiving backing from the temporary Taliban government, while Kabul refutes such allegations of harboring extremists. The TTP’s cross-border strikes and its safe havens in Afghanistan deteriorate their bilateral ties. Tensions reached a breaking point when the TTP conducted a massive raid in Chitral to seize control of several villages after gathering fighters in the districts of Kunar and Nuristan. Secondly, owing to the Taliban’s resurgence, Pakistan was apprehensive about violence and instability near the border. Until 2022, almost 3 million Afghans were living in Pakistan. This led to straining their erstwhile cordial relationship and inciting the repatriation of Afghan refugees as the Pakistani government seeks to deport hundreds of thousands of unauthorized refugees. According to analysts, this policy approach might have a major impact on their bilateral relationship and even exacerbate an already tense situation, as Afghanistan has called the Pakistani action ‘unilateral’ and ‘humiliating.9Pakistan has faced opposition from Afghanistan in its efforts to advance its strategic objectives, including the acknowledgment of the ‘Durand Line.’
Changing Dynamics of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy since American Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Pakistan, which once had great importance for the USA due to its strategic location, was abandoned after the US troops withdrew from Afghanistan. Pakistan was in great need to change its foreign policy as the region was already unstable, and Pakistan was left at no mercy despite its efforts to negotiate peace talks between the US and Afghanistan. The following dynamics were changed in Pakistan’s foreign policy following the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan.
- Shift from a U.S.-Centric Policy to a Regional Focus
Pakistan, since its inception, has been drawn to the Western bloc, especially to the USA, for many reasons. Pakistan’s over-dependence on IMF loans, humanitarian aid, military assistance, and other factors have always compelled Pakistan to remain dependent on the clutches of Western assistance. America’s reliance on Pakistan has also significantly decreased since the US withdrew its troops from Afghanistan. With their departure, Pakistan’s standing in the United States’ counterterrorism efforts has changed, and the nation is no longer a major frontrunner. Pakistan’s strategic importance in this regard has significantly decreased with the end of the American military occupation of Afghanistan.
- Pakistan’s pivot towards China, Russia, and other regional players
Decreased dependence on the US helped Pakistan deepen its engagement with China, especially through CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), and enhanced strategic cooperation with Russia, particularly in defense and energy. Pakistan played a leading role in the ‘Extended Troika’ talks (comprising Pakistan, China, Russia, and the U.S.), which aimed at ensuring regional stability and a peaceful resolution in Afghanistan. Moreover, Pakistan became more involved in regional forums, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to address shared security concerns related to Afghanistan and enhance economic cooperation with regional players.
- Recalibration of Relations with the United States
Pakistan has made considerable efforts to maintain a balanced relationship with both the U.S. and China after the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.
- Pakistan’s efforts to maintain a balanced relationship with both the U.S. and China
Pakistan has pursued strategic neutrality, avoiding siding with either the US or China despite the geopolitical rivalry. Pakistan continues to cooperate with the US on counterterrorism, especially in combatting cross-border terrorism in Afghanistan that may thrust the country into a quagmire of security issues. Moreover, Pakistan is continuing its defense collaboration with the US through military exercises. In the same vein, Pakistan is also strengthening its ties with China through initiatives like CPEC. In addition, Pakistan is also carrying multiple dialogues and collaboration initiatives concerning regional security, trade, and development. - U.S. expectations from Pakistan regarding counterterrorism and regional stability
Post withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan also resulted in rising insurgencies and terrorism in the region, ultimately leading to regional instability. Pakistan has shifted its focus, aiming to fight terrorist organizations like Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). This shift in policy has led Pakistan to step up its efforts to battle terrorist organizations and their networks, both through military operations and by adopting policies to counteract radicalization and propaganda from extremist outfits. The USA expects Pakistan to counter terrorist acts and play its role in eradicating terrorism from the region, which also includes initiating negotiations with the Taliban. Taliban are considered terrorists globally; thus, they are globally isolated, which further puts Pakistan in a difficult position to balance Afghanistan and the USA simultaneously. - Deepening Strategic Partnership with China
Pakistan has shifted its foreign policy more towards China after sharing the fair ups and downs with the USA since the resurgence of the Taliban government.
- Security cooperation and shared interests in regional stability
Pakistan has strengthened its security ties with China, particularly concerning border security and regional stability. China, being a major investor in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has a vested interest in ensuring that instability in Afghanistan does not spill over into Pakistan or threaten its infrastructure projects. Pakistan, being a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), is also working to bring stability to the region. Moreover, Pakistan has also facilitated peace talks between Talibans and the international community, which highlights how Pakistan’s foreign policy directed towards promoting peace and stability in the region is playing its role as a regional stabilizer. - Afghanistan’s potential integration into BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) and Pakistan’s role
Afghanistan has struggled with the war on terror, which has had repercussions not only on its economic growth but also on its international standing. Afghanistan, due to the resurgence of Good Taliban, has hindered its potential to play its role in the world. China has facilitated Afghanistan in numerous ways, rebuilding its infrastructure and eliminating global isolation through various development programs. For instance, the inclusion of Afghanistan into BRI would help bring regional stability and rebuild Afghanistan, eliminating the shadows of terrorism and stabilizing the region. In fact, Pakistan, with its foreign policy directed towards regional stability, is also making efforts to help the Taliban government hold democratic values and maintain bilateral relations with the Western world because instability in the region can only be achieved if the Taliban and terrorism are catered in the region. - Economic Diplomacy as a Foreign Policy Priority
After the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s foreign policy has increasingly prioritized economic diplomacy, shifting towards promoting trade, investment, and regional connectivity
- Shift towards promoting trade, investment, and connectivity
With reduced U.S. economic influence, Pakistan is seeking to expand economic ties with neighboring countries, particularly China, Central Asian Republics (CARs), and Afghanistan, to bolster its economy. Through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan aims to enhance regional trade routes and infrastructure, positioning itself as a key transit hub for goods between Central Asia and South Asia. This focus on economic diplomacy also aligns with Pakistan’s efforts to stabilize Afghanistan by fostering economic integration and promoting development in the region. - Focus on enhancing regional trade and infrastructure development
Pakistan’s foreign policy is directed more towards enhancing regional trade and infrastructure development. Projects like the CPEC and TAPI pipeline hold great prospects for countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan. The TAPI Pipeline (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline) is a major natural gas pipeline project that aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh gas field to South Asia. Moreover, the effort to become a part of BRICS Plus is another effort made by Pakistan, which shows its dedication to enhancing regional trade and infrastructure development.
Critical Analysis
It wouldn’t be wrong to say that Pakistan has faced great consequences since the war on terror began following the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan after two decades. During this time, Pakistan has faced numerous challenges, including refugee crises, cross-border terrorism, security concerns, and instability. Despite Pakistan’s effort to facilitate the USA in the war on terror, the country was abandoned by the USA since it left, which reshaped Pakistan’s foreign policy. The shift in foreign policy helped Pakistan maintain balance relations with global powers by reducing its over-dependence on the USA and focusing on economic policies by working on infrastructure development projects to improve its trade and strengthen its standing in the region.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s foreign policy witnessed a dynamic shift since post withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan. This abrupt withdrawal and the rise of the Taliban government left a power vacuum in the region, thrusting Pakistan into multiple challenges. Pakistan shifted its foreign policy more towards maintaining regional stability, strengthening and balancing ties with other powers rather than the USA alone, and focusing on economic policies and trade development programs. This shift in foreign policy helped Pakistan play an effective role in stabilizing the region to some extent and mitigating terrorism in the region.
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