CSS 2023 Special Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | Implications of India’s Rise on the Strategic Dynamics
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Outline
1- Introduction
2- Context of the emergence of India as the economic and political power of India
3- Likely implications of the emergence of India for the region
- ✓Boost up geopolitical stature through strategic ties
- ✓Growing military might, which gives political might
- ✓Strong economy which encourages trade and relations
- ✓Raised stakes in Kashmir
- ✓Increased risks of Chinese retaliation
4- Likely implications of the emergence of India for Pakistan
- ✓Pakistan walking on thin ice
- ✓India powerplay in Arab and Gulf countries
- ✓Setback of Pakistan in view of Kashmir
- ✓CPEC delayed as being a thorn for India
- ✓Decline foreign direct investment from Arab States for Pakistan
5- How is the region, particularly Pakistan, responding?
6- Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
India’s economic and political might has significantly changed the region’s geopolitical dynamics, particularly in relation to Pakistan. With a GDP expected to exceed $3.7 trillion in 2023, India’s economic might have given it more regional weight and allowed it to invest more in defence and infrastructure. Maritime security in the Indian Ocean region is impacted by India’s modern defences, strategic partnerships with the US, Japan, and Australia, as well as a more robust naval presence. The opinions and alliances of its neighbours may be influenced by India’s soft power and growing influence in international organizations. However, Pakistan also needs to contend with regional alliances, diplomatic challenges, economic competition, border problems, and security concerns. Increased foreign trade and investment in India may eclipse Pakistan’s economic prospects due to India’s larger economy. Increased competition and altered diplomatic relations are likely outcomes of the shifting power balances.
Emergence of India as economic and political power of India
In the West and the region, India’s geopolitical importance has grown dramatically, and the US and India are now regarded as “two pillars of a free and open Indo-Pacific.” Improved Indo-Japanese relations, joint military drills, and discussions about increased defence cooperation projects with Thailand are all examples of this development. China’s rising concerns over Taiwan and Pakistan’s diminishing significance after the US departure from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s political and economic problems combine with India’s rise in the geopolitical architecture. China and Pakistan are more vulnerable as a result of India’s increasing importance since they want to keep control over Taiwan and Pakistan in Kashmir. In a region currently confronting a “cascading security dilemma” between three nuclear-armed powers (China, India, and Pakistan), the international community runs the danger of venturing into complex geopolitical waters. While, India is third in terms of purchasing power parity and fifth in terms of GDP ranking.
| Region | Annual GDP Rate | Ranking |
| South Asia | 6.8% as of April,2024 | 5 |
As a growing political and economic force in the Asia Pacific region, India has become a significant player in regional affairs. The United States’ Look East Policy aims to increase India’s stature in order to offset China’s influence in East Asian affairs. The US Asia Pivot policy, which seeks to curtail China’s dominance in the region, has made India a natural ally of the US.
The strategic partnership between China and Pakistan is in danger due to India’s ongoing hostility against Pakistan. Although the United States suggests that India become a permanent member of the United Nations and other prestigious international organizations, it also supports India’s increased involvement in international politics to advance its regional goals. India’s economy is predicted to grow quickly, reaching a GDP of around $3.7 trillion by 2023. This would allow it to invest in infrastructure and the military while increasing its regional influence. As a result of its growth, India has emerged as a significant player in regional commerce, serving as a trading partner for several South Asian nations. India’s infrastructure projects in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have increased its clout.
Likely implications of the emergence of India for the region
- Boost up geopolitical stature through strategic ties
India’s 2023 military budget of $76 billion reflects the country’s significant modernization initiatives. Purchasing state-of-the-art technological devices and machinery is part of this. Strategic alliances with countries like the US, Japan, and Australia support India’s geopolitical prominence and influence regional security dynamics.
- Growing military might, which gives political might
India’s military strength and over $76 billion defence budget significantly influence its neighbours strategic thinking and regional power balance. Its naval strength, particularly aircraft carriers and submarines, impacts maritime security and trade routes in the Indian Ocean region. India’s economic and political power allows it to play a central role in international organizations like the United Nations and BRICS, influencing regional policy discussions. Strategic relationships with countries like the United States, Japan, and Australia, forged through the Quad, give it importance in regional security dynamics.
- Strong economy which encourages trade and relations
With a 2023 GDP of $3.7 trillion, India’s robust economy encourages regional economic integration and has an impact on trade agreements and policies. The goal of the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative is to invest in infrastructure to promote economic cooperation and connectivity. Being the greatest democracy and cultural exporter in the world, India has soft power that affects surrounding alignments and views. The strategic dynamics of the South Asian area are greatly influenced by India’s economic and political might.
- Raised stakes in Kashmir
Pakistan is threatened by India’s increasing geopolitical importance and international collaboration, especially in the Kashmir issue. Washington’s varying degrees of involvement with the two South Asian countries reflect its move away from Pakistan. Both nations received their Independence Day greetings from separate US government agencies last year. US President Joseph R. Biden sent direct messages to India, while US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sent a message to Pakistan. This tangible show of support seems to be the exception rather than the rule, despite the fact that some contend that India’s increasing importance in relation to Pakistan is not zero-sum. By placing Pakistan on a worldwide watch list for terrorism financing and cutting off military aid, the US has been providing India with more and more disproportionate support. However, Washington has not responded much to claims of India’s human rights abuses in Kashmir. In light of the United States alleged foreign policy ideals, it is hypocritical to remain silent about India’s violations of human rights and destabilizing activities because of its strategic importance. This intensifies the conflict in Kashmir and adds another level of tension to the already unstable security framework in the area.
- Increased risks of Chinese retaliation
An escalation with China is more likely due to India’s geopolitical ascent, jeopardising its interests. Building resilience against China’s influence in the East and South China Sea has been the main goal of Japan and India’s growing alliance. In order to combat militarization in disputed areas, safeguard resource exploitation in the Pacific, and advance marine security measures, India has been strengthening its ties with regional allies such as Australia. India is now seen as a more formidable foe with serious possible consequences as a result. With its “conflict and confrontation threats,” China’s leadership has recast India as an even more formidable foe. India is shifting its power on border issues with China as a result of its growing importance. According to recent independent investigations, in December 2022, the United States supplied satellite imagery on Chinese military deployments.
Likely implications of the emergence of India for Pakistan
India’s military power and regional sway worry Pakistan because they may escalate the arms race and raise security issues. India’s growing influence may impede Pakistan’s diplomatic attempts, particularly in international fora. India has grown into a strong state with important regional ramifications, so its history of relations with its neighbours is worrisome. The majority of China’s population and industrial areas are located in the Pacific, which makes it a strategic core despite its worldwide significance. India is a country centred on southern and western Asia due to its vast coastline, commercial interests, and centre. Atomic The strong economy of Pakistan protects the Middle Eastern countries’ sovereignty. Like the Arab revolt against Turkey during World War I, some people are attempting to split the country for political, religious, or sub-nationalist reasons. It is important for the Pakistani people and the Muslim world to acknowledge that only Pakistan can provide a counterbalance to future Indian aspirations. To counteract India’s influence, Pakistan can try to forge stronger ties with China and other countries.
- Pakistan walking on thin ice
India’s increasing might have caused tensions in Pakistan’s ties with Arab nations for many years. Despite the Arab Gulf’s neutrality, its governing elites are broadening their political affiliations and diversifying their businesses. India has unwittingly profited from Pakistan’s neutrality by using it to position itself as an advocate for Arab interests. As a result, India now has a highly sought-after position in the Arabic world, and Pakistan must now contemplate the ramifications of its diplomatic stagnation. India has gained a desirable position in the Arabic world as a result of its initiatives.
- India powerplay in Arab and Gulf countries
India’s increasing power in the Arab Gulf is causing significant changes in the region’s dynamics, impacting Pakistan. India’s strategic partnerships in the Gulf, including political, defence and economic aspects, are based on strong commercial ties, energy security cooperation, and expanding investments. This supports India’s pursuit of geopolitical clout and energy resources. Pakistan’s influence in the area risks being overshadowed by India’s geopolitical might, potentially jeopardizing its economic interests and strategic depth. Pakistan is urged to review its regional policy, strengthen commercial and diplomatic initiatives, and broaden international alliances to navigate these shifting dynamics. In the context of the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan has suffered significant defeats. Regarding Kashmir, the Gulf states have taken a neutral position. The UAE said it was an internal problem when India revoked Article 370 in Indian-occupied Kashmir in 2019 and deprived it of its autonomy. Furthermore, the Indian Foreign Ministry declared in 2020 that Gulf allies such as Kuwait opposed any narrative that can be seen as meddling in India’s domestic affairs.
- Setback of Pakistan in view of Kashmir
In the context of the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan has suffered significant defeats. Regarding Kashmir, the Gulf states have taken a neutral position. The UAE said it was an internal problem when India revoked Article 370 in Indian-occupied Kashmir in 2019 and deprived it of its autonomy. Furthermore, the Indian Foreign Ministry declared in 2020 that Gulf allies such as Kuwait opposed any narrative that can be seen as meddling in India’s domestic affairs.
- CPEC delayed as being a thorn for India
India’s position on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is strategic because it views China’s access to the Port of Gwadar as a potential military base. Oman has given India a special economic zone, which strengthens the Indian Navy’s role in maritime security and aims to counter Chinese maritime ambitions in the Indian Ocean and deter Chinese and Pakistani navies near Gwadar. CPEC operations and trade routes could be disrupted if the Duqm port is converted into a military base. The I2U2 alliance was formed in 2021 and seeks to resolve issues through cooperation in areas such as economy, energy, security, food, and maritime security. India’s involvement in strategic alliances like I2U2 has improved its maritime position in the Indian Ocean.
- Decline foreign direct investment from Arab States for Pakistan
Foreign direct investment from the Arab States has been greatly influenced by Pakistan’s slowing economic growth, which has also affected its economic relationship with India. India has benefited from prospects in petroleum, IT, and telecommunications, whereas Pakistan’s sluggish development has caused its standing to deteriorate. While Pakistan is anticipated to earn $25 million in investments from the UAE and Saudi Arabia within five years, India and the UAE announced intentions in 2023 to enhance bilateral trade from $50 million to $100 million. While Pakistan’s economic influence is dwindling, this change emphasizes the necessity for India to establish itself as a major force in the Arabian Peninsula.
How is the region, particularly Pakistan, responding?
The increased tensions and escalation are anticipated to cause China and Pakistan to reevaluate their strategic calculations, with Beijing facing further danger from China’s aggressiveness on Taiwan and India’s strategic gains. These changes are reflected in China’s regional aggression, which includes counter-militias opposing ASEAN-India joint exercises in the South China Sea and “ready to fight” drills surrounding Taiwan. With the re-emergence of differences at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit reinforcing Pakistan’s fears, it is anticipated that Pakistan would reassert itself in Kashmir out of fear of its declining international importance. Given Pakistan’s growing military and economic ties with China, the international community should continue to exercise extreme caution. China and Pakistan may “lock” India and the US out of counterterrorism efforts if these rumours are accurate.
Conclusion
India has become a significant economic and political force in the Asia Pacific area, coming in third place in terms of buying power parity and fifth in terms of nominal GDP. India, a major economic and political force in the Asia Pacific region, has greatly impacted marine security and regional policy discussions in the Indian Ocean region. With a sizable public sector and a developing mixed economy, India’s military might—which includes state-of-the-art equipment and a defence budget of more than $76 billion—has altered the balance of power in the region and impacted its neighbour’s strategic thinking. Pakistan, which aims to balance China’s predominance in East Asia, is concerned about this expanding influence.
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