CSS Current Affairs | Implications of Improved Iran-Saudi Relations for the US
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Outline
1-Introduction
2- Understanding the influence of the USA and its traditional alliances in the Middle East region
3- An overview of the Iran-Saudi relations
4- Implications of improved Iran-Saudi Relations for the USA and its traditional alliances in the Middle East region
- ✓Erosion of the US global influence could lead to a shift in the regional dynamics
- Case in point: China’s expanding presence in the Indo-Pacific through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- ✓Strengthening Iran-Saudi relations could lead to reducing the US support for Israel’s territorial claims
- Case in point: Increasing Arab consensus on Palestinian rights, pressuring the US to reassess its support for Israel
- ✓ Navigating a complex geo-political landscape could aggravate the diplomatic credibility crisis
- Case in point: The U.S. response to the Syrian civil war, its stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and its fluctuating policy towards Iran
- ✓ Improving relations could stabilize the Middle Eastern oil market, threatening the U.S. dollar
- Case in point: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) claims that U.S. shale production has declined due to decreased investment in this region
5– The Iran-Saudi Relations shift affects the US influence in the region, especially with energy security and military presence
- ✓Energy security affecting the US Influence
- Case in point: The United States has used Saudi Arabia to influence OPEC production decisions, ensuring a stable flow of oil
- ✓The military presence removal from the region
- Case in point: No rivalry between Iran and Saudi, there would be no reason for the US troops present in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, and there would be no dependency on the United States forces stationed in the area.
6- Critical Analysis
7- Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been one of rivalry and intermittent cooperation, deeply influenced by religious, political, and regional dynamics. However, an improvement in the Iran-Saudi relationship may change a potential shift in the Middle Eastern dynamics that impacts the US and its alliances in the region. Nevertheless, a friendly relationship between Iran and Saudi could create great distress for the US economy, such as a reduction in energy security, which could be affected by a decline in the US dollar. Also, the removal of the military presence from the Middle Eastern states decreases the US hegemony and would pose challenges to the US influence in the Middle East. Hence, Iran -Saudia improved relations would be a nightmare to the US economic policy.
Understanding the Influence of the USA and Its Alliances in the Middle East Region
Before moving deeper into the matter, it is pertinent to discuss the influence of the United States and its traditional alliances in the Middle East. In fact, this influence of the US and its traditional alliances, such as Israel, Jordan, UAE, and Kuwait, has shaped the region’s stability, security, and economic landscape for decades. For instance, Washington’s ongoing military and financial support for Israel also underscores its deep investment in protecting allies and securing mutual interests against common threats, particularly from Iran. These partnerships not only offer protection for Middle Eastern allies but also serve as a strategic lever for the U.S. to influence regional decisions, from OPEC oil production levels to regional peace initiatives. Hence, the U.S. and its alliances have woven a network of security and economic support in the Middle East that ultimately strengthens the US influence.
An Overview of the Iran-Saudi Relations
Stepping down the ladder, it is pertinent to understand an overview of the Iran-Saudia relations. Historically, this rivalry dates back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which transformed Iran into a theocratic republic and heightened sectarian tensions, as Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority monarchy, viewed Iran’s Shia-led government as a threat to its influence and stability in the Middle East. Illustratively, these tensions were evident in several proxy conflicts, including the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), during which Saudi Arabia backed Iraq, and later in Syria and Yemen, where both nations supported opposing factions. Each instance illustrates the struggle for regional dominance, with Iran supporting Shia-aligned groups and Saudi Arabia countering with Sunni allies, thereby intensifying sectarian divides. These conflicts not only heightened hostilities between the two nations but also pulled in global powers, such as the U.S. and Russia, who viewed Iran and Saudi Arabia as critical to their own strategic goals. Despite these long-standing tensions, Iran and Saudi Arabia have had occasional cooperation, mainly driven by mutual economic interests, particularly in OPEC and oil production agreements.
Implications of Improved Iran-Saudi Relations for the USA and its Traditional Alliances in the Middle East Region
- The erosion of the US’s global influence could lead to a shift in regional dynamics.
First, implications of improved Iran-Saudia relation for the US and its traditional alliances in the middle east region would be an erosion of the United States global influence; In fact the US erosion could trigger a significant shift in regional dynamics, especially in strategically sensitive areas like the Middle East and Asia; when the U.S. influence would wanes, regional powers could be increasingly exploring independent policies and new partnerships to protect their interests, which were previously aligned with American strategic objectives; For instance, China’s expanding presence in the Indo-Pacific through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), would decrease dollar, as china’s efforts in the Iran-Saudi peace talks also make the US influence weaker in the region; This shows that in the absence of strong U.S. leadership, regional players can pursue realignments that better serve their national interests, potentially forming blocs and partnerships that exclude or minimize U.S. participation; Conclusively, these shifts can lead to a multipolar environment, where influence would be shared among various global and regional powers, reshaping alliances and the geopolitical landscape.
- Strengthening Iran-Saudi relations may lead to a reduction in US support for Israel’s territorial claims.
Second, warming ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia could lead to implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially in terms of the United States’ support for Israel’s territorial claims. For instance, an Arab consensus growing on Palestinian rights by the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative may pressure the US to re-evaluate its support for Israel over the land it’s fighting for. This shows that Saudi offers Israel recognition in exchange for withdrawing from occupied territories and resolving the refugee. Similarly, when the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia draw closer, the United States may face huge pressure to reassess its support for Israel’s territorial claims. Therefore, this could lead to a shift in the US foreign policy, reviving peace negotiations to the Israel-Palestine conflict.
- Navigating a complex geo-political landscape would aggravate the diplomatic credibility crisis
Third, improved Saudi-Iran relations could navigate today’s complex geopolitical landscape by aggravating the diplomatic credibility crisis in the United States and other global powers, as competing priorities may create conflicting policies and mixed messages. For instance, while the U.S. advocates for democracy and human rights, it frequently collaborates with autocratic regimes when it aligns with security or economic interests, such as in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. This selective application of principles can damage credibility, as other nations may view the U.S. as unpredictable or as prioritizing interests over integrity. These contradictions are noticed not only by rival powers, who may use them as leverage, but also by allies, who may question the reliability of U.S. commitments if the policy is perceived as inconsistent. Hence, inconsistent actions to manage competing interests can deepen the diplomatic credibility crisis.
- Improving relations could stabilize the oil market, threatening the US economic policy
Lastly, improved Iran-Saudi relations could stabilize the oil market in the Middle East. Still, they would undermine U.S. economic policy, which always aimed to isolate Iran and maintain its dominance in global energy markets. In fact, United States economic policy has leveraged sanctions and diplomatic pressure to limit Iranian oil exports and maintain Saudi Arabia’s influence. Illustratively, the Iran-Saudi Arabia détente in 2020 has increased Iranian oil exports due to OPEC. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that US shale production has declined due to decreased investment. Therefore, stabilized oil prices and increased Iranian exports would reduce U.S. leverage over the global energy market, which would compromise its ability to enforce sanctions and potentially weaken the U.S. dollar’s status as a global reserve currency.
The Iran-Saudi Relations Shift Affects the US Influence in the Region, Especially with Energy Security and Military Presence
- Energy Security Affecting the US Influence
To begin with, the shift in Iran-Saudi relations directly impacted the United States’ influence in the Middle East regarding energy security concerns. In fact, the Iran-Saudi move towards more cooperative ties may find it harder for the US to maintain its longstanding role as the primary stabilizer of global 1 markets and protector of energy security in the region. As a demonstration, the United States has used Saudi Arabia to influence OPEC production decisions, ensuring a stable flow of oil. This shows that when Saudi Arabia and Iran collaborate more closely, they may align on oil policies independently of U.S. preferences, such as agreeing on production cuts or other strategies that prioritize their economic interests over U.S. concerns. Also, Saudi and Iran, together working on shared economic and energy interests, could face a diminished role in energy diplomacy as the two Middle Eastern powers find less need to rely on U.S. support for economic security. Thus, friendly relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia would weaken U.S. influence in the Middle East’s energy security.
- The military presence removal from the region
Next, the warming shift in Iran-Saudi relations directly impacts the United States’ influence in the Middle East, especially concerning its military presence. Indeed, the US has launched a large military footprint in the Gulf states for so many decades to counterbalance Iran’s influence and back its allies like Saudi from neighbouring threats. Nevertheless, shifting the relations between Saudi and Iran would move towards diplomatic reconciliation; therefore, the US military presence in the region is increasingly being questioned. For instance, with no rivalry between Iran and Saudi, there would be no reason for the US troops to be present in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, and there would be no dependency on the United States forces stationed in the area. Consequently, as Saudi Arabia and Iran pursue diplomacy, the U.S. would find its military presence in the region less crucial, which diminishes its strategic influence over Middle Eastern security dynamics.
Critical Analysis
Critical analysis reveals that although improved Iran-Saudi relations could reduce immediate conflicts in the region, there are threats to the U.S. and its allies in terms of waning influence and strategic positioning. This shift would open the gate for other global players, like China and Russia, to step in as alternative security partners. Additionally, if these states move towards increased collaboration on oil production, it could undermine U.S. objectives around energy transition and pricing. However, it’s worth considering that diminished U.S. involvement might allow Middle Eastern countries to craft more regionally focused solutions to long-standing conflicts, which supports a sustainable peace that aligns with global interests.
Conclusion
Summing up the above debate, Iran-Saudi relations have always been complex and competitive, characterized by both confrontation and limited collaboration that reflect the broader political and sectarian divides within the Middle East. However, an improvement in the Iran-Saudi relations represents a critical juncture in Middle Eastern geo-politics that would reduce U.S. influence and reshape traditional alliances. Therefore, the United States is under the roof of a ticking bomb, striving to redefine its strategy to remain a relevant player in an increasingly multipolar Middle East.
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