CSS Current Affairs | Cold War 2:0 and Future World Order
The following question of CSS Current Affairs is solved by Safina Naz under the supervision of Howfiv’s Pakistan Affairs and Current Affairs Coaches. She learnt how to attempt 20 marks question and essay writing from Sir Syed Kazim Ali, Pakistan’s best CSS and PMS English essay and precis teacher with the highest success rate of his students. This solved past paper question is attempted on the pattern taught by Sir to his students, scoring the highest marks in compulsory and optional subjects for years, and uploaded to help aspirants understand how to crack a topic or question, how to write relevantly, what coherence is, and how to include and connect ideas, opinions, and suggestions to score the maximum.
Outline
1- Introduction
2- Tracing the roots of the Second Cold War in reference to the changing world order
3- Why is the US-China rivalry considered a second Cold War?
4- How will the future world change with China, Russia, and the US being the main actors?
- ✓The process of de-dollarization
- ✓Investment in economic projects such as CPEC and IMEC
- ✓Influence of regional alliances
- ✓Expansion of the organizations of China and USA, SCO, and NATO expansion, respectively
- ✓Role of BRICS in global South
5- Critical Analysis
6- Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
World dynamics have been under constant change since the onset of the 21st century. The current shift in world dynamics is a continuation of a centuries-old cycle of hegemony where one power, once dominating the world, goes to the receiving end and observes its downfall with the rise of another even more substantial power. Relating it to the current dynamics, the US and China are two giants striving for global hegemony. The power tussle between the two got prominence in 2018 with the America First policy of American President Donald Trump, which provided a breeding ground for a trade war between the US and China. This continuous tussle is claimed to be a new cold war as both countries are not in direct confrontation with one another. However, both are trying to contain one another on economic grounds by working on the Beijing plan, China, and the Washington plan, USA, and forming alliances such as SCO, China, and QUAD and AUKUS, the USA. The era of the Second Cold War, with the rise of countries such as China, India and Russia, points towards a multipolar world order, where there will be no single hegemon and the world will come under the umbrella of a shared world power. Thus, the world is moving towards a multipolar world order. This essay briefly describes the future world order under the changing dynamics.
Tracing the roots of the Second Cold War in reference to changing world order
Before diving into the depth of the matter, tracing the roots of the proclaimed Second Cold War is highly needed. After World War II, the Cold War era started between the Soviet USSR and the United States. Both countries did not undergo direct confrontation but indulged in certain proxy wars for the sake of promoting their agenda of communism of the USSR and capitalism of the US. It involved the famous Cuban missile crisis in 1962 and the USSR invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Finally, the era culminated with the disintegration of the Soviet USSR and the emergence of the USA as a global hegemon. The US was an infallible global hegemon from then until the 2008 financial crisis. The financial crisis of 2008 marked a sharp dart in the supremacy of the US. Side by side, China was working rapidly on economic development and signing trade agreements with countries. The economy and trade of China showed extravagant growth to the point that the West US gave America its first policy, as Chinese investments overpowered the United States, increasing China’s economic development. Therefore, in 2018, the proclaimed second Cold War era started as the US aligned its policies to contain China. While neither China nor the US have encountered one-on-one confrontation, their counter efforts at the political and regional levels indicate the world is currently in a second Cold War era.
Why the US-China rivalry is considered a second Cold War?
They discussed the roots of the Second World War; it’s high time to mention why the current era is labelled the Second World War. The similarities among strategies adopted by the then USSR and the US and current China and the US point to the current era as the era of the Second Cold War. First, While the US gave the Truman Doctrine to support the countries that the USSR threatened, the USSR gave the Cominform Doctrine to counter the US. In the current era, China has given the Beijing plan as a political move to counter the Washington plan of the US. Similarly, on economic grounds, the USSR gave the Molotov Plan, while the US gave the Marshall Plan to counter the spread of communism. Likewise, in the current time, China initiated an economic project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); the US gave a counter project in the form of India Middle East Europe Corridor. Therefore, owing to the prominent similarities between the then cold war and the contemporary era, the current time is referred to as the time of the second cold war, where global powers are striving to develop their hegemony over the globe.
How will the future world change with China, Russia, and the US being the main actors?
- ✓The process of de-dollarization
Heading towards evaluating the future world order, China as an economic giant is changing the world order as the US gradually loses its grip over the world as a global hegemon. The most potent manifestation in this case is the process of de-dollarization. The decades-old supremacy of the dollar is reducing as global powers such as China are reducing their reliance on it, and its allies are following the same pattern. According to Nikkei analysis, the Chinese Yuan was used in 49 % of cross-border transactions in China during the first quarter of 2023. One of the major trade partners, China, the US, is shifting towards its home currency for trade. Further, Russia has also ditched the dollar, as 40 % of Russia’s imports and exports are in the Ruble, the Russian currency. Thus, the world is moving towards a multipolar world order with no single power hegemon.
- ✓Investment in economic projects such as CPEC and IMEC
Further, the investment of China in BRI and the US in IMEC underpins the idea that the two countries are trying to contain one another on economic grounds, challenging the existing unipolar world order. For instance, India Middle East Europe Corridor IMEC, a planned project of the US, will provide a trade route from India to Europe through the Middle East, thus increasing the role of Middle Eastern countries and India in the world economy and shifting the world order towards a multipolar. Similarly, the International-North-South Transport Corridor of Russia is an economic venture that is aimed at increasing its hold in the Asian region. These projects are a struggle to contain the rival countries and maintain the hegemony of the world by inking trade ventures with maximum countries. Thus, the world order is moving towards multipolarity.
- ✓Influence of regional alliances
Moreover, the increasing influence of regional alliances dominated by the United States and China indicates that the world powers are increasing their hold by aligning with regional alliances. For example, regional alliances, such as QUAD and AUKUS, formed by the US are a part of the counter-strategy of the US. The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson has responded to AUKUS: “The three countries were in the grip of an obsolete cold war zero-sum mentality and narrow-minded geopolitical concepts and should respect regional people’s aspiration. Otherwise, they will end up earning their interest. Alongside containing the rivals, these alliances have increased the role of swing states; their tilt towards either of the global powers will influence the world order. Thus, the massive involvement of countries in regional alliances dominated by the US and China shows that the world is heading towards a multipolar world order.
- ✓Expansion of the organizations of China and USA, SCO, and NATO expansion, respectively
In addition, organizations such as NATO and SCO are expanding. Taking a head start with 12 members, NATO has expanded to an extent that now it contains 31 members, with the most recent being Sweden. The US agenda behind the expansion is forming a strong alliance at the political and economic levels through signing trade ventures with the member countries. Similarly, as part of SCO, China is rapidly expanding the SCO to increase its influence in Asia. With Russia being a member country, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is aimed at intelligence sharing and promoting coordinated efforts, consequently creating a solid ground for a strong base in Asia to contain China. So, the expansion of global and regional organizations is challenging the existing world order, which is unipolar.
- ✓Role of BRICS in global South
Lastly, BRICS, an organization for economic cooperation, has significantly challenged the world order. Initially containing Brazil, Russia, China, and India, BRICS is an organization in which two major arch-rivals of the USA are members. In addition, the world economy shares a significant chunk of global GDP. According to Henley and Partner, BRICS countries represent more than 45% of the world’s population and more than 36% of the world’s GDP. The GDP of BRICS countries is more than the global share of the US in GDP; BRICS is providing great competition to counter the global North. Further, the notion of introducing BRICS currency will question the decades-old hegemony of the dollar. Thus, BRICS, a firm counter for the USA, is critical in changing the world order towards multipolarity.
Critical Analysis
Through a critical lens, the trade rivalry between China and the US and Russia’s rise under Vladimir Putin’s leadership suggests that the world order is rapidly reshaping. The onset of the US-China trade rivalry in 2018 initiated a second world war era, where both the US and China are trying to contain one another by taking control of trade routes, such as BRI and IMEC. Additionally, China’s strategy to take control of the South China Sea and the US’s struggle to oppose that move are clear manifestations that both countries are standing at opposite ends, striving to rule over the world by hook or crook. However, certain factors, such as the rising world economies, Russia and India, the increasing influence of regional alliances, and the growing role of swing states, indicate that the power will not vest in any one country. Instead, the countries will survive under the banner of shared power, a multipolar world.
Critical Analysis
To sum up, the US-China trade rivalry has become the second Cold War of the contemporary era. The policy of the US to free itself from China’s grip is the Cold War’s main agenda. Similarly, building connectivity and increasing its influence through signing economic ventures with the countries, predominantly Asian and African, is the policy that China has adopted to counter the USA. Adding to it, the rise of Russia is another prominent chapter in the current play, where all the countries- China, the USA, and Russia- are striving for power. The situation shows that the world has entered an era where being the sole global hegemon has become a thing of the past. Thus, the future world order will be based on a world based on shared power, with no country having absolute hegemony over others.
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