CSS 2015 Solved Current Affairs Past Paper | Causes of Arab Spring and Impacts on the Region’s Future Politics
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Question breakdown
This question has two parts: one requires the causes of the Arab Spring, and the other requires an analysis of its impacts on the future politics of the region.
Outline
1-Introduction
2-Major causes of the Arab Spring
- ✓Authoritarian Rule and Political Repression
- ✓Corruption and Economic Inequality
- ✓Youth Bulge and Economic Frustration
- ✓Psychological Shift Triggered by Mohamed Bouazizi’s Death
3-Impacts on the future politics of the region
- ✓Collapse of Long-standing Regimes, but Limited Democratic Gains
- ✓Rise of Civil Wars and State Fragmentation
- ✓Shifting Geopolitics and Foreign Interference
4-Critical Analysis
5-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
The Arab Spring marked a watershed moment in the modern political history of the Middle East and North Africa. Beginning in late 2010, it swept across the Arab world like a storm, toppling long-standing dictators and shaking the foundations of authoritarian rule. The revolts were not spontaneous outbursts but rather the outcome of deep-seated grievances, ranging from political repression and economic injustice to social frustration and psychological discontent. For instance, Tunisia’s President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali had ruled with an iron grip for 23 years before being ousted by mass protests. This answer explores the major causes behind the uprisings and analyzes how they reshaped the future politics of the region.
Major causes of the Arab Spring
The following are some of the most significant causes of the Arab Spring.
- Authoritarian Rule and Political Repression
The primary cause of the Arab Spring was authoritarian rule and political repression. Most Arab states were ruled by autocratic regimes that suppressed political dissent. These states functioned more like personal fiefdoms rather than accountable governments. This is evident from the fact that Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali ruled for 23 years, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak for nearly 30, and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi for over 40 years. They used emergency laws, banned real political opposition, and controlled the judiciary. Moreover, according to the Freedom House (2010), most Arab countries ranked “Not Free” due to a lack of civil liberties and political rights. Thus, authoritarian rule and political repression are a major cause of the Arab Spring.
- Corruption and Economic Inequality
The second major reason behind the Arab Spring was rampant corruption and nepotism that fueled public resentment in Arab States. It defined how wealth, jobs, and power were distributed, and bribes were often necessary to access even basic services. The middle class saw no upward mobility, while elites enriched themselves. This is evident from the WikiLeaks cables in 2010, which described Tunisia as a “kleptocracy.” Furthermore, Transparency International ranked Egypt 98th and Libya 146th in its 2010 Corruption Perception Index. Thus, corruption and economic inequality are major causes of the Arab Spring.
- Youth Bulge and Economic Frustration
Third, the youth bulge and economic frustration were major causes behind the Arab Spring. The Arab world had a rapidly growing youth population (over 60% under the age of 30), but this “youth bulge” did not translate into economic opportunity. Instead, it resulted in mass underemployment and disillusionment. Education levels rose, but job creation didn’t keep pace. This mismatch triggered feelings of betrayal and a sense of systemic failure. This is evident in Tunisia’s youth unemployment rate, which is above 30%, and Egypt’s, which has hovered around 25%. Moreover, a 2010 ILO report showed that many unemployed were university graduates. Thus, the youth bulge and economic frustration are major factors contributing to the Arab Spring.
- Psychological Shift Triggered by Mohamed Bouazizi’s Death
Last but not least, the psychological shift triggered by Mohamed Bouazizi’s Death became a major cause of the Arab Spring. On December 17, 2010, Tunisian street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in protest after police harassed, confiscated his cart and insulted him. His death symbolized the daily humiliation millions faced and turned personal pain into collective defiance, shattering the psychological wall of fear. It sparked nationwide protests in Tunisia, eventually toppling the regime and igniting similar uprisings across Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and beyond. Thus, it became a major cause of the Arab Spring.
Impacts on the future politics of the region
The following are some of the major impacts on the future politics of the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) region due to the Arab Spring.
- Collapse of Long-standing Regimes, but Limited Democratic Gains
The first impact of the Arab Spring on the region’s future politics is the collapse of long-standing regimes, but limited democratic gains. Although the Arab Spring successfully toppled dictators like Ben Ali (Tunisia), Mubarak (Egypt), Gaddafi (Libya), and Saleh (Yemen), most of the transitions did not result in stable democracies. Tunisia was the only country that initially made democratic progress. It adopted a new constitution in 2014 and held free elections. However, even Tunisia saw a democratic backslide later, especially after 2021, when President Kais Saied dissolved parliament and assumed emergency powers. Thus, authoritarianism remained deeply rooted and the failure to deliver stable governance after the revolutions disillusioned many and undermined trust in democracy.
- Rise of Civil Wars and State Fragmentation
The second impact of the Arab Spring on the region’s future politics is the rise of civil wars and state fragmentation. In countries like Libya, Syria, and Yemen, the Arab Spring triggered prolonged civil wars. This is evident from the fact that Syria’s peaceful protests in 2011 descended into a brutal civil war, leading to over 500,000 deaths and the worst refugee crisis since World War II. Moreover, Libya’s revolution led to Gaddafi’s death, but no functioning government replaced him. The country descended into a state of militia rule and foreign intervention. In addition, Yemen became a battleground between Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition, creating one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Thus, rather than ushering in peace or reform, the revolutions destabilized entire states, turning them into zones of proxy conflict and humanitarian disaster.
- Shifting Geopolitics and Foreign Interference
Last, shifting geopolitics and foreign interference are another impact of the Arab Spring, making the MENA region a battleground for foreign powers. This is evident from the fact that Iran and Russia increased their influence by supporting Assad in Syria. Moreover, Turkey and Qatar backed Islamist groups, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE supported military regimes. Furthermore, Western powers intervened inconsistently by supporting NATO strikes in Libya but hesitating in Syria. Thus, the Arab Spring turned local uprisings into geopolitical proxy wars, with foreign agendas often overriding local democratic aspirations.
Critical Analysis
Critically, the Arab Spring was not a sudden or isolated phenomenon; instead, it was the culmination of decades of political repression, economic stagnation, and social frustration. While authoritarian rule provided the immediate trigger, deep-rooted structural issues such as youth unemployment, systemic corruption, and the absence of political freedoms had long eroded public patience. The death of Mohamed Bouazizi served as a psychological tipping point, transforming personal despair into collective defiance. However, despite the legitimate aspirations, most uprisings lacked organized leadership and a clear roadmap for post-revolution governance. Consequently, in many states, the revolts devolved into civil strife, enabling the resurgence of authoritarianism and foreign intervention. This reveals that while the Arab Spring ignited hopes of change, it also exposed the fragility of political transitions without strong institutions and inclusive frameworks.
Conclusion
In essence, the Arab Spring reflected a widespread demand for dignity, justice, and accountable governance across the Arab world. Although it succeeded in dismantling several entrenched regimes, it often failed to produce stable democracies in most cases, frequently giving way to conflict, repression, or external interference. The movements highlighted the potential of collective action and underscored the dangers of power vacuums and unprepared transitions. Therefore, the Arab Spring stands as a defining moment in modern Arab history, awakening societies but reminding the world that meaningful change requires more than revolution; it demands vision, structure, and sustained reform.
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