CSS Current Affairs | Taiwan Conflict and its Potential Global Implications
The following question of CSS Current Affairs is solved by Bushra Rizwan under the supervision of Howfiv’s Pakistan Affairs and Current Affairs Coaches: Miss Iqra Ali and Sir Ammar Hashmir. She learnt how to attempt 20 marks question and essay writing from Sir Syed Kazim Ali, Pakistan’s best CSS and PMS English essay and precis teacher with the highest success rate of his students. This solved question is attempted on the pattern taught by Sir to his students, scoring the highest marks in compulsory and optional subjects for years.
Outline
1- Introduction
2- Debunking the narrative “A conflict over Taiwan would be a catastrophe not just for the region, but for the entire world.”
3- Critical evaluation of the potential global economic, military, and technological implications of a China-Taiwan conflict.
- 3.1- Economic Implications
- Risk of Global Economic Depression
- Potential disruption of Global Trade
- 3.2- Military Implications
- Prospect of an All Out-War
- Risk of nuclear war and massive destruction
- 3.3- Technological Implications
- Disruption of Global Supply Chain
- Semiconductor shortage hampering all dependent industries
4- Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
The geographical location of China and Taiwan, coupled with their proximity to the South China Sea, underpins the global significance of their dispute. In the event of a direct China-Taiwan war, the implications would reverberate globally: economically, the conflict carries the risk of a global depression and a catastrophic disruption of international trade; militarily, it poses the risk of an all-out war, potentially involving nuclear weapons, among global powers; and technologically, it would severely hamper the global supply chain due to acute semiconductor shortages. Hence, the consequences of a direct China-Taiwan conflict extend far beyond a bilateral or regional level, possessing the distinct potential to completely transform the global order.
Debunking the narrative “A conflict over Taiwan would be a catastrophe not just for the region, but for the entire world.”
A conflict over Taiwan is not considered a bilateral challenge in China-Taiwan relations, as both Chinese and American interests are vested in Taiwan. Taiwan issue is a critical point, especially in the context of ongoing Cold War 2.0.Since China has a historical claim over Taiwan and the U.S. has informal relations with the latter, a risk of direct conflict is ever-present. In case such a conflict starts, china would persuade its allies that include Russia and North Korea to support its seizure of Taiwan, while the contested state would turn to U.S. and South-East Asian to nations for military support.Therefore, the involvement of global actors in case of direct China-Taiwan conflict makes it a global catastrophe.
Critical evaluation of the potential global economic, military, and technological implications of a China-Taiwan conflict.
1- Economic Implications
- Risk of Global Economic Depression
First, a conflict between China and Taiwan would create the risk of global economic depression.As china contributes a large percentage to global economy,its involvement in a direct war with Taiwan would hamper economies of countries dependent on chinese goods.As China runs projects under Belt and Road Initiative and is the second largest growing economy, its involvement in a direct war with Taiwan would create the risk of economic depression worse than 2008 economic crises. Moreover, the comparison of this potential economic depression with that of 2008 clearly explains the intensity of potential damage to the global economy.Hence, the impact of a direct China-Taiwan will not be limited to the region but will have implications for global economy in the form of global economic depression.
- Potential disruption of Global Trade
Second, a direct war would lead to conflict in the South China Sea, which is the chokepoint of global trade. Moreover, U.S. support for Taiwan in this all-out war would lead to its forcing the allies in the region, including Malaysia and Indonesia, to close the Malacca strait. Taiwan-China direct conflict would hamper trade in South China Sea that currently amounts to 3.4 trillion and closure of Malacca strait that would further hamper global oil trade. Therefore, as a direct China-Taiwan conflict would involve global actors like U.S and South-East Asian nations and closing Malacca Strait to hamper chinese trade connectivity to the globe.
2- Military Implications
- Prospect of an All-Out War
Third, an armed conflict between China and Taiwan would ultimately involve other states, including those that support either side and have interests vested in the South China Sea. Moreover, U.S. support for Taiwan would involve European nations in this war. A direct China-Taiwan conflict could lead to an All-out war involving allies of both China and Taiwan. This critical moment would be particularly challenging for nations like Pakistan that are trying to manage relations with both the U.S. and China.Therefore, a direct China-Taiwan conflict could risk a new world war.
- Risk of nuclear war and massive destruction
Fourth, this conflict has the potential to create a nuclear war situation, as backers of Taiwan include the U.S. and other nuclear-armed states and Chinese backers include Russia that used to be a global power.Taiwan Relations Act in U.S. parliament proves U.S. informal support for Taiwan that would end strategic ambiguity and transform into formal support in case of direct China-Taiwan conflict. Moreover, the previous U.S actions, including nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II, provide a basis for such U.S. attacks on China in case of direct U.S.-China conflict. Therefore, the more nuclear powers get involved in this conflict, the higher the risk of a nuclear war.
3- Technological Implications
- Disruption of Global Supply Chain
Fifth, the global technology supply chain would suffer in case of direct China-Taiwan conflict. As China has the status of a tech-giant and Taiwan is the world’s largest semiconductor supplier, their engagement in war would reduce technology manufacturing. Taiwan has a ’Silicone Shield’ as it is home to the Taiwan-Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which produces roughly 90 percent of world’s most advanced semi-conductors, which would get hampered in case of direct China-Taiwan conflict. This also explains the desire to relocate TSMC to the U.S., so that direct China-Taiwan conflict would not halt its technology supply. Hence, the direct war among these tech giants would prove to be fatal for the global technology economy.
- Semiconductor shortage hampering all dependent industries
Sixth, the global technology economy will certainly come under shock in case of a direct China-Taiwan conflict. The world tech supply chain depends on Taiwan’s semiconductor supply. As all industries are now dependent on microchips, including electronics, healthcare, and automotive manufacturing, a direct China-Taiwan conflict would send shock waves through all of these. Hence, a direct China-Taiwan war would enhance tech-nationalism as well.
Conclusion
In conclusion, as global states like the U.S. and Southeast Asian countries have interests in Taiwan, this has transformed the China-Taiwan tussle into a global conflict. Subsequently, a direct military conflict between China and Taiwan will certainly pose global economic, military, and technological implications. From hampering supply chains to disrupting the global tech economy, this conflict has the potential to ignite WWIII. Consequently, the China-Taiwan conflict retains not only regional but also international significance.
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