CSS 2010 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | New Afghan Strategy of the United States
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Question breakdown
This question has one part, i.e., analyze and comment on the new Afghan strategy of the United States, which, in fact, is a veiled request for their safe exit. It is a Gamble. The Price of Victory will be High, and the Price of Failure is Incalculable.”
Outline
1-Introduction
2-What is the New U.S. Afghan Strategy?
3-Veiled Request for Safe Exit: What Does it Mean?
4-The Gamble: High Risks Involved
✓Escalation of Military Operations
✓Dependence on the Afghan Government and Forces
✓Taliban Resurgence
5-High Price of Victory: What It Would Take
✓Massive Economic and Military Investment
✓Endless Military Engagement
6-Incalculable Price of Failure
✓Afghanistan’s Descent into Chaos
✓Taliban Resurgence and Regional Instability
✓Global Terrorism Threat
7-Critical Analysis
8-Conclusion
Introduction
The new Afghan strategy of the United States has attracted substantial attention and criticism. Most people believe it is not about getting a knockout win but more about managing a gracious exit from a long, destructive, expensive war. This strategy, which looks like a well-thought-out risk to many, has severe risks like increased warfare, reliance on the Afghan government and security forces and the possibility of the Taliban regaining power. Success would demand gargantuan amounts of money and weaponry to be spent successfully, and failure would mean the complete social and economic breakdown of Afghanistan and an increased centralisation of terror globally. Before embarking on this analysis, there is a need to appreciate the fact that this is a sensitive strategy with many factors at play.
What is the New U.S. Afghan Strategy?
Under the new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, the country’s insurgent forces will be dealt with by intensifying military and diplomatic efforts and building up Afghan governance and security capabilities. An expanded troop deployment supported by a commitment to training and equipping Afghan troops to establish a self-sustaining defence infrastructure that can withstand insurgency without the need for ongoing foreign intervention. It also calls for diplomatic engagement with key regional players, such as Pakistan, that it considers necessary to contain the Taliban’s cross-border movement and supply lines. It also proposed that political stability and the anti-corruption perspective in Afghanistan’s government should be the counters to insurgent environmental actions proposed by the action itself. This multifaceted policy is presented as thoroughly interwoven military strength, diplomatic coordination, and empowerment of the indigenous population. It is the holistic approach towards insurgency.
Veiled Request for Safe Exit: What Does it Mean?
The new U.S. Afghan strategy publicly says it has committed to Afghan stability, but many see it laying the groundwork for a safe, dignified exit. It is likely a ‘veiled request for safe exit, implying that the United States is working to fashion conditions permitting a responsible withdrawal with minimal risk to U.S. forces and Afghan allies. The idea is to show Afghanistan’s institutions a path that would enable them to survive insurgent pressures while telling regional powers that stabilising Afghanistan does not solely rely on America’s shoulders. The U.S. hopes that building a more secure Afghan government, bolstering local leadership, and seeking diplomatic alliances will leave behind an Afghanistan that relies on only moderate foreign involvement. Underlying this veiled exit strategy is recognising how far the limits of foreign occupation can be maintained before it must be withdrawn and attempting to do so in the most efficient way possible.
The Gamble: High Risks Involved
✓ Escalation of Military Operations
An escalation of military operations is one of the most critical risks to the U.S. Afghanistan strategy because it may serve only to entrench the United States in a costly and protracted conflict. More troops and more combative action might initially seem a sure route to victory, but they could stimulate insurgents, such as the Taliban, to more determined resistance. More U.S. resources and personnel necessarily raise the odds of casualties, expense, and a backlash from both Afghan civilians and the international community. Additionally, increased military presence entices an increased fractious related anti-U.S. sentiment, which insurgent groups may use to bolster their ranks, thus intensifying a cycle of violence. Moreover, within the strategy’s military component, the choice becomes a high-stakes gamble with uneven outcomes that could secure a stable Afghanistan or see more fighting and fighting that cannot be put out.
✓ Dependence on the Afghan Government and Forces
Like the Afghan government and security force capabilities, the U.S. strategy is a critical risk in that they all rely on the capabilities and resilience of the Afghan government and security forces. At the same time, like most institutions, Afghan institutions are underfunded, corrupt, poorly run, and not organically cohesive. Nevertheless, internal divisions and accusations of ineffectiveness continue to erode the Afghan government’s stability and legitimacy for long-term peace. It puts the entire strategy at a vulnerable state because should Afghan forces fail to maintain security again, gains could be reversed quickly. Thus, the U.S. strategy depends on the presumption that Afghan institutions will come to stabilize, a hope thrown into doubt by a lifetime of strife and political severance in a country torn by violence and interminable splits.
✓ Taliban Resurgence
A strong Taliban resurgence is another significant risk of the U.S. Afghan strategy: this could happen if the strategy does not secure and stabilize Afghan land efficiently. The Taliban continues to be able to operate in several regions despite most efforts to weaken the insurgent networks, usually exploiting local grievances and their lack of satisfaction with the central government. If reinvigorated, the very same Taliban threatens to undermine U.S. efforts to create a secure, social, and political environment that was forged with great effort. Their external support, cross-border connections, and continued connections with external elements increase the risk of their resurgence, making efforts to centralize their activities more difficult. If the Taliban grows more robust, the result could be a re-escalation of the conflict, including potentially pulling Afghanistan back into a protracted civil war that would defeat the principal goal of U.S. strategy.
High Price of Victory: What It Would Take
✓ Massive Economic and Military Investment
The U.S. strategy for Afghanistan would require enormous economic and military investment to achieve a lasting victory. Reconstruction of Afghanistan’s infrastructure, supporting governance, and conducting military operations will require significant investment that has run into billions of dollars annually. To supplement the economic aid, the U.S. must continue providing advanced military resources, training programs, and logistical support for Afghan forces, which will be needed to maintain the ability to fight insurgent threats. This heavy financial strain could stir domestic opposition in the U.S., where opinion on the propriety of foreign intervention is atomised. In addition, such a significant investment would become unsustainable in the long run, mainly if Afghan institutions only partially rely on themselves and progress remains slow. Thus, the price of victory is relatively high and requires considerable sacrifice, which implies this initial considerable expenditure and entails a willingness to carry the costs associated with lengthy participation.
✓Endless Military Engagement
Unless there is a sustainable victory in Afghanistan, an indefinite military presence may be required to meet this reality. Coupled with deeply entrenched networks of Taliban and other insurgent groups on the terrain, a decisive military conclusion is difficult. That could involve an endless cycle of deploying troops, reinforcing local forces and then fighting counterinsurgency operations in which there is no clear end. But that protracted engagement stretches military resources and strains U.S. armed forces, with rotations that show no end in sight. Such an involvement, moreover, is inherently indefinite and, over time, reduces public support and fosters political pressure that can place the government in untenable positions with little strategic outcome in mind. The price of keeping Afghanistan safe down the road could come to be an enduring military presence, an albatross around the neck of the U.S.
Incalculable Price of Failure
✓Afghanistan’s Descent into Chaos
It would reverse years of international investment and reform and plunge Afghanistan into a state of chaos if it fails to achieve stability. Afghanistan faces the risk of becoming a land fragmented along sectarian lines, under the control of regional warlords, insurgent factions and spaces that lack governance and security in the hands of extremists. Such chaos would ruin the Afghan society with both social and economic progress that they are making and destroy essential basic infrastructure, healthcare, and education. An environment conducive to breakdown could lead to a humanitarian crisis with internal and border-scale displacements of people. Not only would an unstable Afghanistan be a severe regional risk, driving neighbouring countries into turmoil and exacerbating ethnic and sectarian conflicts within its borders, but it would also pose security challenges to most of Eurasia. With Afghanistan, therefore, the cost of failure is not simply Afghanistan; it is the South Asia stability which will be upended, and the impact of Afghan instability extends far out of its borders.
✓ Taliban Resurgence and Regional Instability
The implication of the return of the Taliban in case of failure of America in Afghanistan will be disastrous to Afghanistan and its neighbours. A resurgent Taliban may take back control, re-impose its harsh rule, and restore a dismal situation in Afghanistan in terms of the rights of citizens. Further, Afghanistan under the Taliban can upset the stability of neighbouring countries because regional actors can wage a proxy war. Extremism within borders in Pakistan, Iran and all the other nations in the region could increase dramatically; refugee crises would escalate, significantly causing more tensions and instabilities. Moreover, if the Taliban regroups and becomes more of a menace than before, it can encourage other groups like Al-Qaeda in the region and thus get more support for its anti-state chorus. This regional instability would domino over South and Central Asia, affecting economic stability, security, and international relations, all because of the immeasurable price to pay for a failed U.S. strategy.
✓ Global Terrorism Threat
Last but not least, a failed U.S. strategy there could lead Afghanistan to become a fresh cockpit for global terrorism, with profound implications for international security. Afghanistan could once again host outlaw insurgent groups like the Taliban that could provide a haven to transnational terrorist networks, including al-Qaeda and others. Based on an existing base, these groups would have greater freedom to train, organize and launch strikes worldwide, posing an even more significant threat to the United States and its allies from terrorism. The revival of Afghanistan’s terrorism networks also risks breeding similar networks elsewhere, as extremist ideologies are spread and those who are persuaded of their victories gain new followers. However, internationally, as the challenge of fighting terrorism will grow exponentially, the international community will have to be even more vigilant, knowledgeable, and secure than usual. The stakes are not just local and regional instability. They are a global terrorism threat for the United States in this war, which helps to reinforce the stakes of this U.S. strategy in Afghanistan.
Critical Analysis
To critically analyse, the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is a tangled web of military action, economic assistance, and political participation, but there is much to challenge regarding its intentions and effectiveness. One, it shows that they have done everything that they honestly can to stabilize Afghanistan and not turn it into a hotbed for global terrorism. The United States will invest in the Afghan people and address and engage regional actors to constructively sculpt a new and coherent whole from the existing chaotic parts. However, this also makes for excessive reliance on Afghan governance, which was instilled by corruption and limited access in the past. This reliance on Afghan forces is so worrying because these forces may lack the resources or cohesion to sustain security once foreign support wanes. As a result, such a strategy could turn into a long engagement with no defined endpoint but one that could further entangle the U.S. in an expensive and opaque conflict. The plan is heavy on the economic and military commitment, but success is hampered by the fuzzy nature of ‘victory,’ a moving target. It has been further confounded by the fact that the Taliban’s resilience and adaptability have been able to cloud the reality of a decisive victory. Increased tensions involving military operations could trigger pushback, gnawing at the already strained U.S. relations and drawing more support for the insurgents. Moreover, although domestic support for this engagement is declining and is increasingly expensive, the United States has few strategic objectives that justify the costs involved. Looking at this strategy in a broader sense, it is a precarious gamble both of success and failure. A US withdrawal without gaining lasting stability brings with it the severe consequences of a Taliban resurgence, regional instability and renewed global terrorism. However, the military emphasis and the substantial potential costs tell an entirely different story about how this model might ossify instability instead of finally burying it. With this in mind, this strategy depicts Afghanistan as a messy situation where every single act is stochastic to yield outcomes and significance for Afghanistan and all international actors.
Conclusion
To conclude, this new U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is a complex action plan to ensure stability in the region while maintaining its primary goal of ensuring a safe withdrawal. Nevertheless, it is both a self-professed mission on behalf of the Afghans’ progress and a brilliantly timed withdrawal, which may also speak to the nature of this long-stand-off war. The approach has potentially massive risks, including a Taliban resurgence, overreliance on corrupt Afghan institutions, and skyrocketing conflict—the risks of ‘hasty’ or unprepared withdrawal are incalculable. Such failure would plunge Afghanistan into chaos and favour regional instability and global terrorism. Consequently, this is a gamble at every point – the U.S. finds itself in a situation where both success and failure have tremendous prices. The strategy ultimately captures this harsh truth that it may not be winning a curable victory in Afghanistan but rather calibrating instability while cautiously starting to pull out materials behind a functioning state able to fend off insurgent threats without our support.
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“The New Afghan Strategy of the United States, in Fact, is a Veiled Request for Their Safe Exit-. It is a Gamble. The Price of Victory will be High, and the Price of Failure is Incalculable.” Analyse and Comment?
CSS 2010 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | New Afghan Strategy of the United States
The following question of CSS Current Affairs 2010 is solved by Sir Ammar Hashmi, the best Current Affairs Coach, on the guided pattern of Sir Syed Kazim Ali, which he taught to his students, scoring the highest marks in compulsory subjects for years. This solved past paper question is uploaded to help aspirants understand how to crack a topic or question, write relevantly, what coherence is, and how to include and connect ideas, opinions, and suggestions to score the maximum.
Question breakdown
This question has one part, i.e., analyze and comment on the new Afghan strategy of the United States, which, in fact, is a veiled request for their safe exit. It is a Gamble. The Price of Victory will be High, and the Price of Failure is Incalculable.”
Outline
1-Introduction
2-What is the New U.S. Afghan Strategy?
3-Veiled Request for Safe Exit: What Does it Mean?
4-The Gamble: High Risks Involved
5-High Price of Victory: What It Would Take
6-Incalculable Price of Failure
7-Critical Analysis
8-Conclusion
Introduction
The new Afghan strategy of the United States has attracted substantial attention and criticism. Most people believe it is not about getting a knockout win but more about managing a gracious exit from a long, destructive, expensive war. This strategy, which looks like a well-thought-out risk to many, has severe risks like increased warfare, reliance on the Afghan government and security forces and the possibility of the Taliban regaining power. Success would demand gargantuan amounts of money and weaponry to be spent successfully, and failure would mean the complete social and economic breakdown of Afghanistan and an increased centralisation of terror globally. Before embarking on this analysis, there is a need to appreciate the fact that this is a sensitive strategy with many factors at play.
What is the New U.S. Afghan Strategy?
Under the new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, the country’s insurgent forces will be dealt with by intensifying military and diplomatic efforts and building up Afghan governance and security capabilities. An expanded troop deployment supported by a commitment to training and equipping Afghan troops to establish a self-sustaining defence infrastructure that can withstand insurgency without the need for ongoing foreign intervention. It also calls for diplomatic engagement with key regional players, such as Pakistan, that it considers necessary to contain the Taliban’s cross-border movement and supply lines. It also proposed that political stability and the anti-corruption perspective in Afghanistan’s government should be the counters to insurgent environmental actions proposed by the action itself. This multifaceted policy is presented as thoroughly interwoven military strength, diplomatic coordination, and empowerment of the indigenous population. It is the holistic approach towards insurgency.
Veiled Request for Safe Exit: What Does it Mean?
The new U.S. Afghan strategy publicly says it has committed to Afghan stability, but many see it laying the groundwork for a safe, dignified exit. It is likely a ‘veiled request for safe exit, implying that the United States is working to fashion conditions permitting a responsible withdrawal with minimal risk to U.S. forces and Afghan allies. The idea is to show Afghanistan’s institutions a path that would enable them to survive insurgent pressures while telling regional powers that stabilising Afghanistan does not solely rely on America’s shoulders. The U.S. hopes that building a more secure Afghan government, bolstering local leadership, and seeking diplomatic alliances will leave behind an Afghanistan that relies on only moderate foreign involvement. Underlying this veiled exit strategy is recognising how far the limits of foreign occupation can be maintained before it must be withdrawn and attempting to do so in the most efficient way possible.
The Gamble: High Risks Involved
An escalation of military operations is one of the most critical risks to the U.S. Afghanistan strategy because it may serve only to entrench the United States in a costly and protracted conflict. More troops and more combative action might initially seem a sure route to victory, but they could stimulate insurgents, such as the Taliban, to more determined resistance. More U.S. resources and personnel necessarily raise the odds of casualties, expense, and a backlash from both Afghan civilians and the international community. Additionally, increased military presence entices an increased fractious related anti-U.S. sentiment, which insurgent groups may use to bolster their ranks, thus intensifying a cycle of violence. Moreover, within the strategy’s military component, the choice becomes a high-stakes gamble with uneven outcomes that could secure a stable Afghanistan or see more fighting and fighting that cannot be put out.
Like the Afghan government and security force capabilities, the U.S. strategy is a critical risk in that they all rely on the capabilities and resilience of the Afghan government and security forces. At the same time, like most institutions, Afghan institutions are underfunded, corrupt, poorly run, and not organically cohesive. Nevertheless, internal divisions and accusations of ineffectiveness continue to erode the Afghan government’s stability and legitimacy for long-term peace. It puts the entire strategy at a vulnerable state because should Afghan forces fail to maintain security again, gains could be reversed quickly. Thus, the U.S. strategy depends on the presumption that Afghan institutions will come to stabilize, a hope thrown into doubt by a lifetime of strife and political severance in a country torn by violence and interminable splits.
A strong Taliban resurgence is another significant risk of the U.S. Afghan strategy: this could happen if the strategy does not secure and stabilize Afghan land efficiently. The Taliban continues to be able to operate in several regions despite most efforts to weaken the insurgent networks, usually exploiting local grievances and their lack of satisfaction with the central government. If reinvigorated, the very same Taliban threatens to undermine U.S. efforts to create a secure, social, and political environment that was forged with great effort. Their external support, cross-border connections, and continued connections with external elements increase the risk of their resurgence, making efforts to centralize their activities more difficult. If the Taliban grows more robust, the result could be a re-escalation of the conflict, including potentially pulling Afghanistan back into a protracted civil war that would defeat the principal goal of U.S. strategy.
High Price of Victory: What It Would Take
The U.S. strategy for Afghanistan would require enormous economic and military investment to achieve a lasting victory. Reconstruction of Afghanistan’s infrastructure, supporting governance, and conducting military operations will require significant investment that has run into billions of dollars annually. To supplement the economic aid, the U.S. must continue providing advanced military resources, training programs, and logistical support for Afghan forces, which will be needed to maintain the ability to fight insurgent threats. This heavy financial strain could stir domestic opposition in the U.S., where opinion on the propriety of foreign intervention is atomised. In addition, such a significant investment would become unsustainable in the long run, mainly if Afghan institutions only partially rely on themselves and progress remains slow. Thus, the price of victory is relatively high and requires considerable sacrifice, which implies this initial considerable expenditure and entails a willingness to carry the costs associated with lengthy participation.
Unless there is a sustainable victory in Afghanistan, an indefinite military presence may be required to meet this reality. Coupled with deeply entrenched networks of Taliban and other insurgent groups on the terrain, a decisive military conclusion is difficult. That could involve an endless cycle of deploying troops, reinforcing local forces and then fighting counterinsurgency operations in which there is no clear end. But that protracted engagement stretches military resources and strains U.S. armed forces, with rotations that show no end in sight. Such an involvement, moreover, is inherently indefinite and, over time, reduces public support and fosters political pressure that can place the government in untenable positions with little strategic outcome in mind. The price of keeping Afghanistan safe down the road could come to be an enduring military presence, an albatross around the neck of the U.S.
Incalculable Price of Failure
It would reverse years of international investment and reform and plunge Afghanistan into a state of chaos if it fails to achieve stability. Afghanistan faces the risk of becoming a land fragmented along sectarian lines, under the control of regional warlords, insurgent factions and spaces that lack governance and security in the hands of extremists. Such chaos would ruin the Afghan society with both social and economic progress that they are making and destroy essential basic infrastructure, healthcare, and education. An environment conducive to breakdown could lead to a humanitarian crisis with internal and border-scale displacements of people. Not only would an unstable Afghanistan be a severe regional risk, driving neighbouring countries into turmoil and exacerbating ethnic and sectarian conflicts within its borders, but it would also pose security challenges to most of Eurasia. With Afghanistan, therefore, the cost of failure is not simply Afghanistan; it is the South Asia stability which will be upended, and the impact of Afghan instability extends far out of its borders.
The implication of the return of the Taliban in case of failure of America in Afghanistan will be disastrous to Afghanistan and its neighbours. A resurgent Taliban may take back control, re-impose its harsh rule, and restore a dismal situation in Afghanistan in terms of the rights of citizens. Further, Afghanistan under the Taliban can upset the stability of neighbouring countries because regional actors can wage a proxy war. Extremism within borders in Pakistan, Iran and all the other nations in the region could increase dramatically; refugee crises would escalate, significantly causing more tensions and instabilities. Moreover, if the Taliban regroups and becomes more of a menace than before, it can encourage other groups like Al-Qaeda in the region and thus get more support for its anti-state chorus. This regional instability would domino over South and Central Asia, affecting economic stability, security, and international relations, all because of the immeasurable price to pay for a failed U.S. strategy.
Last but not least, a failed U.S. strategy there could lead Afghanistan to become a fresh cockpit for global terrorism, with profound implications for international security. Afghanistan could once again host outlaw insurgent groups like the Taliban that could provide a haven to transnational terrorist networks, including al-Qaeda and others. Based on an existing base, these groups would have greater freedom to train, organize and launch strikes worldwide, posing an even more significant threat to the United States and its allies from terrorism. The revival of Afghanistan’s terrorism networks also risks breeding similar networks elsewhere, as extremist ideologies are spread and those who are persuaded of their victories gain new followers. However, internationally, as the challenge of fighting terrorism will grow exponentially, the international community will have to be even more vigilant, knowledgeable, and secure than usual. The stakes are not just local and regional instability. They are a global terrorism threat for the United States in this war, which helps to reinforce the stakes of this U.S. strategy in Afghanistan.
Critical Analysis
To critically analyse, the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is a tangled web of military action, economic assistance, and political participation, but there is much to challenge regarding its intentions and effectiveness. One, it shows that they have done everything that they honestly can to stabilize Afghanistan and not turn it into a hotbed for global terrorism. The United States will invest in the Afghan people and address and engage regional actors to constructively sculpt a new and coherent whole from the existing chaotic parts. However, this also makes for excessive reliance on Afghan governance, which was instilled by corruption and limited access in the past. This reliance on Afghan forces is so worrying because these forces may lack the resources or cohesion to sustain security once foreign support wanes. As a result, such a strategy could turn into a long engagement with no defined endpoint but one that could further entangle the U.S. in an expensive and opaque conflict. The plan is heavy on the economic and military commitment, but success is hampered by the fuzzy nature of ‘victory,’ a moving target. It has been further confounded by the fact that the Taliban’s resilience and adaptability have been able to cloud the reality of a decisive victory. Increased tensions involving military operations could trigger pushback, gnawing at the already strained U.S. relations and drawing more support for the insurgents. Moreover, although domestic support for this engagement is declining and is increasingly expensive, the United States has few strategic objectives that justify the costs involved. Looking at this strategy in a broader sense, it is a precarious gamble both of success and failure. A US withdrawal without gaining lasting stability brings with it the severe consequences of a Taliban resurgence, regional instability and renewed global terrorism. However, the military emphasis and the substantial potential costs tell an entirely different story about how this model might ossify instability instead of finally burying it. With this in mind, this strategy depicts Afghanistan as a messy situation where every single act is stochastic to yield outcomes and significance for Afghanistan and all international actors.
Conclusion
To conclude, this new U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is a complex action plan to ensure stability in the region while maintaining its primary goal of ensuring a safe withdrawal. Nevertheless, it is both a self-professed mission on behalf of the Afghans’ progress and a brilliantly timed withdrawal, which may also speak to the nature of this long-stand-off war. The approach has potentially massive risks, including a Taliban resurgence, overreliance on corrupt Afghan institutions, and skyrocketing conflict—the risks of ‘hasty’ or unprepared withdrawal are incalculable. Such failure would plunge Afghanistan into chaos and favour regional instability and global terrorism. Consequently, this is a gamble at every point – the U.S. finds itself in a situation where both success and failure have tremendous prices. The strategy ultimately captures this harsh truth that it may not be winning a curable victory in Afghanistan but rather calibrating instability while cautiously starting to pull out materials behind a functioning state able to fend off insurgent threats without our support.
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