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Critically Analyze the US-Russia Relations in the Context of ISIS and Its Impact on the Security Situation of the Middle East.

CSS 2017 Current Affairs Past Papers Question, "US-Russia Relations in the Context of ISIS and Its Impacts" is solved Sir Ammar Hashmi...

CSS 2017 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | US-Russia Relations in the Context of ISIS and Its Impacts

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Question Breakdown

This question has two parts.

  1. Analysis of the US-Russia Relation in the Context of ISIS
  2. Its Impact on the Security Situation of the Middle East.

Outline

1-Introduction

2-Historical Context: US-Russia Relations and the Middle East

3-The Rise of ISIS and Regional Instability

4-US and Russia’s Relations in the Context of ISIS: Convergence and Divergence

  • ✓Shared Interests in Combating Terrorism
  • ✓Divergent Strategic Goals in Syria and Iraq
  • ✓Operational and Tactical Disagreements

5-The Impacts of the US and Russia’s Relations in the Context of  ISIS on the Security Situation of the Middle East

  • ✓Fragmented Regional Alliances
  • ✓Escalation of Proxy Conflicts
  • ✓Shifting Power Dynamics in the Middle East

6-Critical Analysis

7-Conclusion

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Answer to the Question

Introduction

Hyping the political history of the Middle East, the tense relations between America and Russia were permanently embedded there. In the decades, the relations between the two countries have been described as a complex combination of rivalry and partnership, critical factors for starting a regional war, a proxy war, and a power balance. The similarities between the Iraq war and the Arab Spring were the same: the relations between both countries with the emergence of ISIS. ISIS emerged from the social-political vacuums in the territories it captured or controlled, and this made it a critical health risk to the stability of the regions and the whole world. The two states recognised the emergent threat from the Islamic State and acted on it, even though in a distinct fashion. The United States, being at the helm of the coalition at the international level, sought to destroy ISIS by bombing aerial combatants, supplying logistics to friendly ground forces, and also acting against any potential terrorists. On the other hand, Russia’s concern was in preserving the Assad regime in Syria, and it hence leveraged the anti-ISIS campaign by the regional power as a way of reestablishing power that they previously lacked. It could be argued that one of the leading causes of this relationship between the two powers and the security of the Middle East, which is branded with interconnections, lies with the incoherence of counter-terrorism procedures and the variation of the methods of each country in fighting a common antagonist. Furthermore, it also allows the establishment of the nature of the relationship between the two powers, the ISIS battle, and the other wars in the Middle East. However, it also impacted at a level outside of warfare. While the US is sometimes involved in something against Russia’s benefit, these actions aggravate the current struggle and prevent the formation of a stable peace. The relations between the USA and Russia, as well as the creation of ISIS, can serve as a variable in the assessment of shifts in the status of security in the Middle East and, therefore, several consequences of its changes on the security of the world since both countries actively pursued their interests in the region for the sake of the strategic interest.

Historical Context: US-Russia Relations and the Middle East

To begin with, the era of competing geopolitical interests has generated a long-standing competition that has defined US-Russian ties in the Middle East. Russia (formerly the USSR) wanted to increase its power by backing communist countries during the Cold War, whereas the US fought to stop communism from spreading. Their current engagement in regional wars, especially in Syria, where the US supports rebel groups while Russia backs the Assad government, was made possible by this rift. Extremist organisations such as ISIS later took advantage of the cracks their activities caused. Because of these two states’ long-standing history of rivalry rather than cooperation, instability has been allowed to spread throughout the area.

The Rise of ISIS and Regional Instability

Moving further towards its rise, ISIS strengthened its regional authority and attracted the world’s attention in 2013 and early 2014. Known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, ISIS emerged from the collapsed al-Qaeda in Iraq and took advantage of the political and ethnic rivalries together with the voids in Iraq and Syria to gain control of large areas. Furthermore, from mid-2014 to the early part of 2015, ISIS expanded its control over some areas of northern Iraq and Syria and announced a so-called caliphate as well as began to rule these territories in a highly authoritarianistic manner, reflecting and enforcing ‘Islamic State’ in very violent ways and systematically violating human rights. The insecurity brought about by ISIS compelled the United States and Russia to jump into military activities in the area, although for diverse causes. As it has been observed, the effect of ISIS having control over territories involved millions of people displaced while thousands of people were killed in Iraq and Syria. The group also had a direct involvement in terrorism as it solicited for and directed terrorist attacks across Europe, the US and other parts of the world and, therefore, prompted a reaction from the international community.

US and Russia Relations in the Context of ISIS: Convergence and Divergence

  • Shared Interests in Combating Terrorism

Currently, both the USA and Russia consider ISIS as a threat to global security; however, it seems to be one of the few common positions of the two world powers. The two countries have deployed significant reinforcements to fight ISIS, given the fact that the group’s terrorism impacts the stability of both international and regional security. This common threat has now and then resulted in operational cooperation, including restricted intelligence exchange and measures against the likelihood of full-scale confrontation between their militaries in Syria. However, despite this acknowledged perception of ISIS as an adversary, the scope and depth of collaboration have been superficial and primarily tactical. This convergence is usually accompanied by far more profound strategic competitors and suspicions. Still, it is vital to note that both powers have realised that extremism in the region needs to be tackled.

  • Divergent Strategic Goals in Syria and Iraq

One of the critical factors that is distinctive in the approach that the US and Russia have had about ISIS has been the different strategic interests each had in Syria and Iraq. Russia has always backed the Syrian president as it seizes the opportunity to maintain a permanent military base in the Middle East and political support for a friend. On the other hand, the US regards Assad as a culprit who must not be in power to make the Middle East peaceful; that is why the US has sided with all anti-Assad rebels. This has instated a conflicting approach where Russia, especially the military complex, is supporting Assad’s government, while the United States is actively striving to eliminate ISIS in the region but seeking to change Assad’s government as well. These conflicting interests have churned out a confusing playing field where while the two superpowers fight ISIS on their own, they end up on different sides of the divide, thereby deepening conflict.

  • Operational and Tactical Disagreements

The US and Russian strategic and even operational and tactical differences have also harmed their relations in the context of ISIS or the ISIL. Based on the different military strategies, strategies like the use of reckless air raids by Russia against the rebels, while the US is selective in their bombing to avoid civilian loss of life, has led to each side accusing the other of compromising the other’s efforts. Also, the US has preferred Kurds and some rebels as accompaniments, unlike Russia, which supports Syrian government troops and those militias supporting Assad. Some of these differences have generated tensions and prevented more efficient cooperation against ISIS, representing the overall struggle for power in the region.

The Impacts of the US and Russia’s Relations in the Context of ISIS on the Security Situation of the Middle East

  • Fragmented Regional Alliances

The diverse stances of the US and Russia regarding ISIS have created divided allegiances in the region, thus making it hard to pool resources and forces to fight this group. The fluctuation can be seen in this analytical fragmentation of Middle Eastern states’ policies, and some swing states maintain relations with both powers. In contrast, others lean more to one side. As for the second case, such countries as Iran and Syria have become closer to Russia, while traditional American partners from the region, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, can cooperate with Russia at times, but they remain cautious about Russia’s actions. This broken structure has hindered the grouping of forces against ISIS, making the group continue benefiting from divisions among its enemies.

  • Escalation of Proxy Conflicts

The relations between the two superpowers, namely the United States of America and Russia, have entailed the heightening of proxy wars, for instance, in Syria, where two factions have been fighting with support from the two giants. This competition has not only led to an increase in the level of violence on the ground but also the aggravation of the humanitarian catastrophe; millions of people are left without homes, and the destruction is vast. When the US and Russia have dipped into the conflict, both and more regional players have co-opted their support for their purposes, and much less with a strict anti-ISIS strategy in mind. The conflicting powers and the absence of coherent leadership to fight against ISIS have delayed the chances of a stable solution. Thus, there is still a permanence of more minor instability in these areas.

  • Shifting Power Dynamics in the Middle East

The conflict between the USA and Russia due to ISIS has played a critical role in bringing change in the strategic power balance of the Middle East, which has affected the local government policies and their diplomatic relations with regional and international players. New roles have been manifested politically, diplomatically, and militarily through Russia’s active participation and involvement as a significant factor that has displaced the previous sole superpower in the region: America. Israel and Saudi Arabia Middle East actors, including Iran, have changed their regional policies, while others, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, have had to alter their strategic partnerships. Thus, the US and Russia rivalry has remapped the regional strategic landscape, contributing to the escalation of intricate security dynamics.

Critical Analysis

Based on the critical analysis of the US–Russia relationship with a focus on ISIS, the following conclusions can be drawn: First of all, it is logical to state that even though both states realized the danger of ISIS, the actions of the latter were based on the geopolitical interests of their countries. The US strategy set in Syria, which was formulated under the broad goal of overthrowing the Assad regime and stabilizing Iraq, negated Russia’s interests in preserving the Assad regime and expanding its influence in the Middle East. Second, both the approaches of the US and Russia were frequently reactive and, therefore, comprised the effort against ISIS. In Syria, the objectives of assists were to help bomb non-ISIS opposition parties, especially the moderate ones, which greatly affected the international anti-ISIS coalition and thus prolonged the civil war in the country. That was a highly decentralised strategy for the counter-ISIS campaign, which was pretty much beneficial for the group in initiating further rampages. Third, the general confrontation between the US and Russia has determined tendencies in Middle Eastern security up until the present. The Syrian war is today an image of international relations where major stakeholders use Syria as a pawn, the US against Russia. This has not only extended the time of the conflict but also the involvement of other players, such as Iran and Turkey, in the ongoing war in Syria. Furthermore,  finally, while it might be true that ISIS has indeed been significantly weakened, it is also true that the factors that brought to life the organization are still in place and unaddressed. In the same way, due to fragmented state authority in Syria and Iraq and sectarian ongoing tension with outside actors, the security environment remains permissive, which enables such actors. It should be noted that the antagonism between the United States and Russia has only contributed to the continuation of these issues and, therefore, has not contributed to the search for a long-term resolution of the conflicts in the area.

Conclusion

To conclude, it has been seen that there has been significant convergence and divergence between the US and Russia in terms of ISIS. Although both countries realised the danger of the terrorist group, their regional priorities in the Middle East often used to interfere with each other’s anti-terrorism measures, thus compounding the problem. Due to the US concentrating on toppling the Syrian regime and stabilising Iraq coupled with Russia’s interest in supporting the Assad regime, there was a patchy, and sometimes opposing, approach towards ISIS. This has had severe consequences for the security situation in the Middle East since the rivalry between the US and Russia has led to long-drawn conflicts, insecurity and the potentiality of the extinction of extremism. Although ISIS is defeated, the overall security situation of Middle Eastern countries continues to improve only slowly, and the factors that led to the emergence of ISIS have not been eliminated yet. The aim and objective of the two economies differ to an extent, and this complicates the search for a long-term solution to stability in the Middle East; any future operation against terrorism in the Middle East would need a concerted effort of the two powers.

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