CSS 2016 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | Pakistan’s Role in the Middle East wrt KSA & Iran
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Question Breakdown
This question has two parts.
- Recent Developments in the Middle East, Particularly with Reference to Deteriorating Relations Between Saudi Arabia and Iran
- What role, if any, Pakistan could play in reducing the tensions between the two Muslim countries?
Outline
1-Introduction
2-Brief Overview of the Middle East and Its Geopolitical Significance
3-Analysing the Recent Developments in the Middle East with a Focus on Saudi-Iran Relations
- ✓ The Execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and Diplomatic Fallout
- ✓ The Proxy War in Yemen
- ✓ The Syrian Civil War: Opposing Sides
- ✓ Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) and Saudi Concerns
4-What role could Pakistan play in reducing the tensions between the two Muslim countries
- ✓ Facilitating Structured Bilateral Talks
- ✓ Creating a Regional Peace Task Force
- ✓ Offering Neutral Mediation through Religious Leadership
- ✓ Proposing Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs)
- ✓ Leveraging Pakistan’s Strategic Neutrality
5-Critical Analysis
6-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
The Middle Eastern region has enormous geopolitical significance in the past and the present, being a connection between Asia, Africa, and Europe, and it has rich reserves of energy resources. Enduring conflicts, protracted and religious schisms, and shifts of power have shaped policies in the political context of the area. The most striking phenomenon of this rivalry is Saudi Arabia, the leader of Sunni states, and Iran, the leading Shia state. This rivalry has caused many a proxy war and diplomatic crisis, compounding regional insecurity. The ongoing Syrian Civil War and the endorsement of the JCPOA further diluted the relations between Saudi and Iran because of concerns like the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nim and the proxy conflict in Yemen in 2016. When the stakes rose higher, the threat of a general conflict loomed on the horizon. At this precious phase, Pakistan holds tremendous opportunity to mediate between the two nations due to its historical relations with both the KSA and Iran and its middleman man, who has the distinct role of a mediator in the South Asian region. The role of Pakistan may involve direct talks and making efforts to form a regional peace organisation, and it is a religious and cultural intercessory. The geopolitical role of Pakistan in this case can be considered rather crucial since cooperation with the Arab country can bring stability not only to them but also to Pakistan, the given country, and the whole Middle East region. Finally, only the capacity to negotiate in and around the complexities of these relations would determine the possibility of reconciliation and regional peace in the region.
Brief Overview of the Middle East and Its Geopolitical Significance
To begin with, the Middle East region is an area of great significance to the global economy. It is located where Asia, Africa, and Europe interconnect, making it ideal for commercial activities. This region has the most indispensable chokepoints, like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, which are pivotal for oil and gas transportation. The Middle Eastern property market has diverse cultural and religious importance since it has been the birthplace of many civilisations and religions, such as Islam. Nevertheless, the area also suffers from conflicts, which can be explained more by the split between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Being the leading Sunni state, Saudi Arabia confronts Shia Iran as the leading state of the Shia community. This competition has defined much of the region’s politics and has created proxy conflicts in such nations as Syria and Yemen. Moreover, the United States, Russia, and China are among the powers interested in the region, mainly because of the oil and natural gas deposits. These powers often support different parties in a conflict situation in a region, thus further compounding the existing problems. Consequently, any conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran means severe destabilisation in the Middle Eastern region as well as the world as a whole.
Analysing the Recent Developments in the Middle East with a Focus on Saudi-Iran Relations
- ✓ The Execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and Diplomatic Fallout
In January 2016, the Government of KSA executed Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a revered Shia religious figure. His action provoked already tense relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Shia cleric had been an outspoken opponent of the Saudi authorities for a long time, demanding higher autonomy for the Shia population of the kingdom. Indeed, his execution not only stirred up anger among Shiite communities internationally but also especially in Iran. Some protested in Tehran, and demonstrators stormed and set ablaze the Saudi embassy; the situation worsened. In response, the Saudis expelled Iran’s envoy and cut off relations completely, bringing the relationship to its worst point yet. This event aggravated not only the political confrontation in this sense but also stirred further active proxy wars in such locations as Yemen and Syria, which involved both states.
- ✓ The Proxy War in Yemen
After the diplomatic breakdown accompanying the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the Saudi-Iranian rivalry shifted further to Yemen’s war zone. Yemen conflict itself had already sucked both countries into a proxy war with the Houthi rebels. In 2015, Iran’s allies, the Houthi rebels, overthrew Yemen’s government, leading to a Saudi Arabian-led coalition to intervene to support the return of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to power. Yemen emerged as one of the significant battlefields that served as a major confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Yemen was strategically important for Saudi Arabia because it wanted to put Tehran pressure on its southern neighbour; similarly, Houthi had been the means through which Tehran sought to counter Saudi influence in the Arabian Peninsula. The conflict in Yemen not only increased Saudi Arabia and Iran hostilities but also led to a humanitarian catastrophe in one of the region’s countries.
- ✓ The Syrian Civil War: Opposing Sides
As the Yemen conflict unfolded, the other significant development of Saudi-Iranian competition was the ongoing Syrian civil war. Since then, the war in Syria has escalated, and at the same time, both countries were actively participating on different sides of the conflict by 2016. Assad described Iran as the backbone of his regime, and Iran was supportive and financially helping the Syrian government in its fight, directly involving Hezbollah fighters and Shia militias in Syria’s civil war. Iran saw Assad’s survival as vital because the Syrian regime was an essential link in the Shia land corridor that Iran sought to build from Tehran to Beirut. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, along with other Sunni-dominated Arab countries, benefited the insurgent groups which aimed to topple Assad since his defeat was seen as key in checkmating Iran in the Levant. The conflict in Syria had escalated into a bigger proxy war involving more countries, including the United States and Russia, and all this made matters worse. Therefore, This conflict of interest in Syria has only exacerbated the already bitterly hostile rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
- ✓ Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) and Saudi Concerns
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or simply the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 nations to curtail Iran’s nuclear capabilities in return for the removal of sanctions. By 2016, it had slowly begun to alter the Middle East’s geopolitical structure with far-reaching consequences for the renewed Saudi-Iran animosity. Apart from that, Iran obtained the release of over $100 billion in frozen assets, lifted the economy, and reopened the country to international oil business. This economic upturn further enhances Iran’s capacity to increase its projection in the region, including financing and other support to its minions in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. For Saudi Arabia, the JCPOA was considered a direct threat to its regional hegemony. Saudi Arabia was also worried that once the sanctions were removed, Iran would be in a position to fund groups unfriendly to Saudi Arabia and continue with its acts of aggression in the region. Moreover, Saudi leaders believed that the nuclear deal was a sign of America changing sides from supporting Saudi and other Gulf countries to being more conciliatory to Iran. These and Iran’s continued intervention in the Syria and Yemen wars ensured that the JCPOA became a significant aspect contributing to further Saudi-Iran confrontation by 2016.
What role could Pakistan play in reducing the tensions between the two Muslim countries?
- ✓ Facilitating Structured Bilateral Talks
Due to its historical relations, which cut across between KSA and Iran, Pakistan is in a privileged position to act as a middleman between the two countries. As a third party, Pakistan could act as an intermediary that may arrange for the bilateral talks that can allow these two countries to negotiate in a structured setting and come to their agreements. This diplomatic influence in the Muslim world, political and economic relationship with Saudi Arabia and geographical and cultural connection with Iran make Pakistan the correct country to mediate the relations between the giants. A diplomatic and constructive conversation could be between Senators and Congressmen, where participants agree on specific conflicts such as regional security, proxy wars or sectarian violence with the help of credible international intermediaries. Thus, Pakistan has been ready to act as a mediator. For example, during the conflict in 2014, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif and Army Chief General Raheel Sharif visited India and Afghanistan at the beginning of 2016 to resolve the situation. This proves that Pakistan can remain an active participant in pressuring the Middle East to seek peaceful solutions.
- ✓ Creating a Regional Peace Task Force
Another measure that Pakistan can take at the ground level is to come up with the idea of a regional peace-keeping task force within the OIC. Pakistan, one of the OIC members from its formation, should use its power in the organization to push for common security agendas, including finding solutions to conflicts in sensitive regions such as Yemen and Syria. This peace task force should involve military observers and neutral Muslim-majority peacekeepers overseeing compliance with ceasefires, disarmament of communities, and humanitarian assistance in conflict-affected areas, respectively. Through this forum of regional integration, Pakistan can play a role in lowering Proxy Wars and avoiding further aggravation between Saudi and Iran. These measures would also fit well into the general objectives of Pakistan’s foreign policy: attaining stability for the Muslim world without taking sides.
- ✓ Offering Neutral Mediation through Religious Leadership
Due to the religious aspect of the Saudi–Iran rivalry, Pakistan can utilise religious diplomacy to ease competition. Since Pakistan has Sunni and Shia populations, it has credible Sunni and Shia scholars from across the Muslim world who can promote dialogue on harmony and peaceful coexistence. Religious leaders, by and large, especially those who influence both Saudi Arabia and Iran, could possess the necessary neutral voices for the reconciliation-making process. On this issue, therefore, Pakistan has the credibility to mediate, given its internal success in managing the Sunni-Shia relations. If Pakistan would frame this dialogue with the KSA based on religious commonalities and Islamism and belief in presenting a non-violent concept of Islam, then this could assist in bringing down sectarian tensions between the two countries and stop the spiral of destabilisation of this region.
- ✓ Proposing Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs)
Pakistan could take the initiative to approach Riyadh and Tehran to formulate and push economic and security-related CBMs. One of the actions could be establishing investment cooperation through developing joint economic projects regarding energy or infrastructure in both regions. Resolving economic issues could foster entanglement, which would assist in avoiding direct conflict. On the security side, Pakistan could suggest agreements on exchanging terrorism intelligence or joint naval exercises to safeguard shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea, which are essential for both countries. Focusing on relevant parochial interests, including regional security and development, Pakistan can ensure that positive relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran that are gradually built will make a foundation for long-term cooperation that is critically needed for the region’s stability.
- ✓ Leveraging Pakistan’s Strategic Neutrality
Being an observer in the Middle Eastern conflict is one of Pakistan’s biggest strengths while brokering the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Unlike most regional players, Pakistan has been able to tread a neutral balancing policy with both countries and has not been drawn into conflict. This strategic position puts Pakistan in a better position to mediate without being seen as supporting one side against the other. It also kept out of the conflict, to Saudi Arabia’s dismay, in 2015 by not joining the coalition military in Yemen. By doing this, Pakistan has put itself at the vantage point of being a mediator in promoting peace. However, it can now turn this neutrality into an asset; practically, it can act as an independent negotiator during high-level diplomatic negotiations and a figure for conflict resolution without being seen as partial. Hence, by Pakistan’s ability to remain neutral strategically, the country is in an excellent position to help Saudi Arabia and Iran reopen diplomatic relations and diplomatically de-escalate the tensions.
Critical Analysis
To critically analyse the potential of Pakistan as a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran is informed by the fact that it is in the middle of two hostile parties and shares strategic relations with both countries in a way that creates an opportunity for them to act as a mediator. On the one hand, engaging both countries, Pakistan has diplomatic relations with both, and the historical relationship of mediators with the Muslim world gives it authority. Having the ability to mediate equitably in crises such as the Yemen war, the organisation opted to be neutral in such a situation. However, this neutrality can also be fragile; Pakistan’s dependence on Saudi Arabia for economic support can compromise the country’s non-aligned status, mainly if Riyadh sees hesitation about supporting its military actions in the region. Again, since Pakistan neighbours Iran, it must also respect Tehran; this also adds pressure to Pakistan’s situation. At home, Pakistan has the difficulty of handling its sectarian conflict. They regarded anything that has to do with the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran as sensitive since it may increase the degree of sectarianism in the Pakistani nation. However, this division is still contentious in the nation. Pakistan has limited control over regional states; therefore, Saudi Arabia and Iran are ready to accept suitable negotiations only if they correspond to their interests rather than Pakistan’s mediation. Moreover, measures of confidence building, including economic and security cooperation, may be rejected because of the high animosity permeating relations between Riyadh and Tehran. On the positive side, the fact that Pakistan is not aligned with either side of the conflict is an advantage to the country. However, several challenges come with this; the regional politics, sectarian issues, and issues of the world’s power relations make Pakistan face many challenges in achieving a negotiator role. Consequently, it can be concluded that Pakistan’s effectiveness will decrease only tensions in relationship with Saudi Arabia and Iran will only depend on its ability to manage the impact of these factors on itself while at the same time discouraging both parties in the conflict to continue turning to extremes.
Conclusion
To conclude, given the recent acrimony, especially in the relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Pakistani government’s neutrality has advantages and disadvantages. Pakistan has a diplomatic advantage, or this relationship and history of impartiality, to act as a middle between the two superpowers. It tried to propose such highly concrete steps as willingness to have structured talks, promote economic relations, and balance religious agendas – all of which could be deemed applicable to mitigate the conflict. However, at the same time, the sectarian conflict inside the country and the overall regional setting where the Riyadh-Tehran relationship takes place in the presence of the United States, Russia and others has to be then taken into account. Nonetheless, the capacity of Pakistan as a peacemaker is hugely influential in the region and may beneficially turn in the context of the outlined challenges. In general, for Pakistan, this function of promoting dialogue between two warring Muslim powers is also essential, not only for the Middle East but also for the general global Muslim community, because such disputes should be resolved through negotiations, not force. Therefore, Pakistan can encourage regional cooperative resolutions and peaceful intentions to be central to the unity of the broader global community.
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