CSS 2019 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | Pakistan Afghanistan Emerging Water Conflict
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Question Breakdown
This question has one main part and requires the factors contributing to the water conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Outline
1-Introduction
2-Afghanistan’s Water Reserves
3-The Geopolitical Background of Pakistan Afghanistan Water Conflict
4-Emerging Reasons for Water Conflict
- ✓ New development Projects in Afghanistan
- ✓ Climatic Change
- ✓ Population Increase and Agricultural Expansion
- ✓ Economic development projects
- ✓ Lack of Institutional Framework like the Indus Water Treaty
- ✓ Security and cross-border tensions
5-Potential Consequences of Water Conflict
6-Preventive measures and possible solutions
7-Critical Analysis
8-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
Water is vital for all continents, including South Asia, as it is crucial for agriculture, industry, and domestic use. In Pakistan and Afghanistan’s arid and semi-arid regions, livelihoods and economic stability depend directly on water availability. Pakistan shares water with Afghanistan through the Kabul River, which originates in Afghanistan and flows into Pakistan. It is the primary shared water resource between them. The strained relations between the two, particularly border issues and allegations of terrorism, have hindered cooperation on many fronts. The lack of trust between their governments made initiating water-sharing negotiations challenging. However, the potential for diplomatic solutions offers hope. The consequences of a water conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan could be severe. A reduced water flow to Pakistan could lead to severe agricultural losses, affecting livelihoods and food security. To prevent conflict, diplomacy and table talk are the best possible solutions between states, rather than involving the states in armed conflicts and damaging the already ruined economies of both countries. Pakistan and Afghanistan, both need to engage in diplomatic dialogue to establish a formal agreement on shared waters. It could be modelled like the Indus Waters Treaty, with appropriate provisions for joint management of the Kabul River and proposed mechanisms for dispute resolution.
Afghanistan’s Water Reserves
Afghanistan has abundant resources of water. It produces about 80 billion cubic meters of water annually, sharing 60 billion cubic meters with neighbors, particularly Pakistan. The main river of Afghanistan, the Kabul River, supplies 26 % of the annual flow in the country, mainly rising in the Hindu Kush mountains and flowing along the borders of eleven provinces before final drainage into the Indus River near KPK (city of Attock) in Pakistan. Its tributaries provide a crucial source of livelihood for nearly 25 million people living around its basin, and the population is expected to increase to 37 million by 2050. In 2018, the Afghan government announced the commencement of work on the construction of the Shahtoot Dam, costing $236 million on the Kabul River. The expected capacity of the Dam is to hold 146 million cubic meters of water, with the capacity to facilitate 2 million Kabul residents and 4,000 hectares of irrigation land in the Charasiab district. The project is one of the components of India-backed ambitious plans to build 12 dams on the Kabul River basin in Afghanistan.
Geopolitical Background
Pakistan and Afghanistan have been sharing water resources for a long time without significant conflict. Still, the absence of a water-sharing treaty has left room for disputes, especially in temporary water-stressed conditions. The studies show an 85% probability of water-based wars in the next 100 years as climate change fueled intense competition for scarce resources. The Kabul River has already fueled a “wicked” conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, intensifying a conflagratory relationship between the two neighbors. The Kabul River Basin is critical for Pakistan, especially for the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) regions and some parts of Punjab, which depend on it for irrigation and drinking. Afghanistan, a hub of wars, now recovering from decades of conflict, seeks to utilize its water resources for economic development, which has raised concerns in Pakistan.
Fig 1.1 shows the water sharing of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Source: Dawn
Emerging Reasons for Water Conflict
- ✓ New development Projects in Afghanistan:
Among other development projects, the Afghanistan government has embarked on several new dam projects alongside the Kabul River and its tributaries. The most notable and prominent among these projects is the Kama Dam project in the vicinity of Jalalabad. Itis intended to generate a large amount of electricity and support farmers and irrigation projects in Afghanistan. Additionally, Shahtoot Dam on the Maidan River is also a tributary of River Kabul. It is designed in such a way that it will provide drinking water to the whole city of Kabul. These projects will indeed facilitate Afghan people but threaten Pakistan as these water storage dams will reduce the flow of water into Pakistan. This reduction will potentially impact millions of farmers in KPK, dependent on this water for agriculture. In 2013, Pakistan expressed deep concerns over Kabul’s plans to build twelve dams along the Kabul River, expecting a significant reduction in downstream water flow. The problem remains between the two nations without an appropriate solution, leading to growing tensions.
- ✓ Climatic Change:
Climate change is one of the most pervasive issues of the 21st century, and it has recently exacerbated water crises around the globe, as well as in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, which feed on the River Kabul, are already experiencing extreme glacial melt due to rising temperatures. This has led to constricted and more erratic water flow in the rivers. Not only this, but it has increased the frequency of droughts and annual floods, which, as a result, further complicates water availability, making it a more serious issue. The deadly floods of 2010 in Pakistan, which were the worst in the country’s history, have also demonstrated the disastrous impact of climate change on water resources. Recently, the droughts in Afghanistan have led to severe water shortages, forcing the government to prioritize action plans to fulfil domestic water needs. However, this could further strain relations with Pakistan.
- ✓ Population Increase and Agricultural Expansion:
Rapid Increase in population is a common problem in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, and this has ultimately led to an increased demand for food and water. Water resources are not only required for drinking and other home purposes but also to meet food demands, reduce poverty, and boost food security. Kabul is currently working on agricultural enhancement projects that require a lot of water. This agricultural expansion involves increased water extraction from River Kabul, reducing the water available to downstream users in Pakistan. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani lately emphasized the need for Afghanistan to effectively use its water resources to improve agricultural output and several energy projects; this policy has concerned Pakistan, where a reduction in water flow could have serious implications.
- ✓ Economic Development Projects:
Afghanistan has always been a land of conflicts and wars, which destroyed its structural, political, financial and economic systems. Kabul is now making serious efforts to rebuild its economy after years of conflicts, which include the effective utilization of its natural resources, most prominently water. The development of hydroelectric power plants and irrigation projects is seen as extremely important to Afghanistan’s economic future. For instance, the construction of the Salma Dam (a living example of the Afghan-India Friendship Dam) on the Hari River not only hinders Pakistan’s water flow but also affects water flow into Iran. This shows how Kabul’s development projects can lead to regional tensions.
- ✓ Lack of Institutional Framework like the Indus Water Treaty:
Pakistan and India are two South Asian nations that are always at odds with each other; without any real point of conflict, these nations have animosities against one another that are permanent. They share water and have a formal sharing mechanism through the Indus Water Treaty. Still, in the case of Afghanistan, unlike the Indus Waters Treaty, there is no formal mechanism to manage the water resources between the two. The lack of formal agreements and treaties increases the risk of conflict, and any unilateral action of Afghanistan in the development of projects would be considered a threat to Pakistan. Serious efforts have been made to establish an agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan on their water resources, but they remained unsuccessful due to mutual distrust and political instability.
- ✓ Security and Cross-Border Tensions:
Pakistan shares one of the longest borders with Afghanistan, known as the Durand Line, one of the major trade routes between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Ongoing political tensions and mistrust between these two countries have fueled cross-border militancy and political tensions, making it difficult to engage in constructive and result-oriented dialogue on water-sharing issues. The strained relations between the two, particularly border issues and allegations of terrorism, have hindered cooperation on many fronts. The lack of trust between their governments made it challenging to initiate negotiations on water sharing.
Potential Consequences of Water Conflict
The consequences of a water conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan could be severe. A reduced water flow to Pakistan could lead to severe agricultural losses, affecting livelihoods and food security. These losses will directly affect Pakistan’s economy, which is majorly dependent on agriculture. Additionally, other environmental consequences could include the devastation of river ecosystems and loss of biodiversity. For instance, in 2018 in Balochistan, Pakistan, the widespread drought highlighted the fragility of the region’s water resources and the damaging impact of water scarcity on local communities.
Preventive measures and possible solutions
To prevent conflict, diplomacy and table talk are the best possible solutions between states, rather than involving the states in physical conflicts and damaging the already ruined economies of both countries. Pakistan and Afghanistan need to engage in diplomatic dialogue to establish a formal agreement on shared waters. It could be modelled like the Indus Waters Treaty, with appropriate provisions for joint management of the Kabul River and proposed mechanisms for dispute resolution. In such a scenario, international help can be sought, just like the World Bank facilitated the Indus Waters Treaty. World Bank or any other International organization could play a role in mediating negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Additionally, collaborative efforts in water management, like joint projects on water conservation, could also help mitigate the tensions.
Critical Analysis
The Kabul River has already fueled a conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, intensifying tensions between the two neighbors. The Kabul River Basin is critical for Pakistan, especially for the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) regions and some parts of Punjab, which depend on it for irrigation and drinking. The absence of a bilateral treaty exacerbated these tensions, and there is an urgent need for a cooperative framework acceptable to both states. The delay in finding a reasonable solution could further disturb peace in the South Asian region and the international community.
Conclusion
The potential water conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan underscores the critical need for bilateral cooperation on shared water management. Both countries are at a high risk of escalating tensions without a formal water-sharing agreement, which could further destabilize the region. Equitable and sustainable water management practices and diplomatic efforts are essential to prevent conflict and ensure water security for both nations.
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