CSS 2022 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | New START Treaty and Pakistan’s nuclear program

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Question Breakdown

This question has two parts. The first part requires us to elaborate on the possible prospects of US-Russian strategic deterrence in the context of the New START treaty, and the second part requires an elaboration of the implications of this treaty on Pakistan’s Nuclear System.

Outline

1-Introduction

2-Understanding US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence

3- Deciphering the New START treaty of 2021

4-How the New START treaty changes the nature and possible prospects of US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence?

• ✓ New START treaty 2021 maneuvering arms control
• ✓Balancing US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence
• ✓Changing the course of US-Russia nuclear deterrence through weapons     modernization
• ✓Paving the way for multilateral strategic engagements

5-The New START treaty and Pakistan’s nuclear program

• ✓De-facto nuclear status of Pakistan
• ✓The quest for strategic deterrence and national sovereignty
• ✓ Dwarf-scale nuclear arsenal of the country

6-Critical analysis

7-Conclusion

Answer to the Question

Introduction

Strategic deterrence has long been active in fostering stability and preserving sovereignty. The US-Strategic nuclear deterrence stemmed during World War II and went through different phases because of nuclear development and varying geopolitical situations. The country’s nuclear arsenal has experienced a series of expansions, from Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM’s) to hypersonic missiles and space weaponization. However, deciphering the sensitivity of nuclear proliferation and disastrous implications for the rest of the world, both countries went through a series of dialogues and treaties to frame certain limitations to nuclear proliferation. Notably, the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) 1972, SALT II 1979, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty  1987(INF), Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty( START I)  1991, Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty 2002 (SORT) and the New START Treaty 2011 are a series of treaties signed between the US and Russia, each with its own set of obligations and limitations. Indeed, The New START treaty, extended again in 2021 to 2026, is of prime importance because it has extended the sphere of limitations to all forces of the nuclear triad. Besides arms control, the New START has possible prospects for multilateral dialogue, forging bilateral strategic stability between the US and Russia, and eventually global security.

Understanding US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence

The US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence has experienced a series of shifts since the Cold War’s start to the era of multilateralism and multipolar world order. The pages of history show that the nuclear deterrence staged after World War II in attaining nuclear capability is experiencing a rapid transformation through weapon modernization. To maintain strategic balance, even in tense geopolitical situations like the Cold War, both countries had shown compliance to the obligations of different treaties signed between them to control nuclear proliferation.

Deciphering the New START treaty of 2021

TheNew Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty of 2021, known as the New START, extends the previous treaty signed in 2011 between the US and Russia to reduce strategic warheads and missiles to control nuclear proliferation and attain strategic stability. Ironically, the New START treaty is the last surviving pillar of arms control and nuclear disarmament. However, the treaty is uniquely important as it ventilates the mechanism of reducing strategic nuclear weapons. Besides its motto of nuclear disarming, the pragmatic and achievable targets through data exchange, the Bilateral Consultative Commission and comprehensive verification process have many prospects for bilateral stability and global security.

How the New START treaty changes the nature and possible prospects of US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence

The New START treaty has significant implications for the nature of US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence and its future posture. To illustrate, holding the prospects for controlling the atomic arms race and fostering strategic balance, the treaty offers a broad spectrum for multilateral agreements and global security, as discussed below.

• The New START Treaty 2021 maneuvering arms control

The limitations set by the New START treaty 2021 have changed the spectrum of the US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence. For instance, the conventional posture of nuclear deterrence that relied on building a stockpile of strategic arms is of limited importance in the era of the New START treaty. According to the obligations set by the treaty, each country has to reduce the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1500, a sum of 700 Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), Sea Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM) and Heavy bombers, followed by the exchange of data, yearly inspections and comprehensive verifications. The limitations imposed by the New START treaty are 74% less than 1994’s START I and 30% less than 2002’s Moscow treaty on the number of deployed strategic warheads. For example, according to the 2020 report of the  US Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, both countries are at or below the proposed limitations set by the treaty, showing the pragmatism and compliance level of the New START Treaty of 2021, which is, in fact, the extension of the 2011’s treaty.

• Balancing US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence

The New START treaty balances US-Russia strategic nuclear deterrence and nuclear forces. To illustrate, the treaty has framed equal limitations on deploying strategic weapons for both global powers, thus forging strategic stability. Likewise, the flexibility offered by the treaty to structure strategic forces is an excellent move towards stabilizing bilateral deterrence. Like the president of the United States, Joe Biden, the New START is an anchor of stability between the US and Russia. Similarly, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, at the Virtual meeting of the World Economic Forum, called it a step in the right direction. However, the US has concerns over Russia’s non-strategic arms stockpile as a means of destabilizing strategic deterrence. Nonetheless, Russia’s geopolitical situation and relations with the neighboring states validate the possession of non-strategic and conventional weapons stockpiles.

• Changing the paradigm of US-Russia nuclear deterrence through weapons modernization

In the era of rapid technological advancement, the race for weapons modernization has changed the contour of US-Russia strategic deterrence. The issue of weapons modernization is beyond the avenue of the New START treaty, which provides a new window to maintain strategic deterrence. For instance, in the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), 73 billion dollars were spent in 2019 to modernize nuclear weapons, 10% greater than in 2018. Similarly, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) yearbook 2020, despite an overall decrease in nuclear warheads in 2019, the nuclear states continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals like space weaponization, hypersonic missiles and autonomous weapon systems. Thus, to maintain strategic balance, both nuclear states have shifted the scope of deterrence to weapons modernization.

•  Paving the way for multilateral strategic engagement

            In the era of rapidly changing geopolitical interests and nuclear doctrine, the New START treaty has altered the contour of bilateral strategic deterrence by paving the way for multilateral strategic engagement. To illustrate, the nuclear doctrine of both the US and Russia emphasize on the importance of nuclear arsenal to deter any threat to both countries and their allies. Further, along with the bilateral agreement, Russia has concerns about including NATO in the process of arms control under the umbrella of the New START treaty. Similarly, the US has reservations about the growing nuclear arsenal of China. Signifying the multilateral impacts of the treaty, the European Union welcomed it as a pivot to regional stability and security. Therefore, the New START treaty is vital in expanding the US-Russia strategic deterrence to multilateral nuclear doctrine.

 The New START treaty and Pakistan’s nuclear program

Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine rests upon a strategic national security and sovereignty paradigm. Despite being void of nuclear legitimacy and keeping national interests as a priority, the country remained an active proponent of controlling nuclear proliferation. However, as a non-signatory of the New START treaty and non-participant of any great powers bilateral nuclear dialogue, the country holds no obligation to the treaty’s objectives. Besides, a few other factors mentioned below veil the country from international pressure to reduce its nuclear arsenal.

• De-facto nuclear status of Pakistan

Despite significant nuclear capabilities, Pakistan has not been granted legitimate nuclear status. To illustrate, the country’s de facto nuclear status and non-signatory status of the New START treaty shield it from international regulations on arms reduction. However, control on sharing nuclear technology and supplying nuclear arms are exceptions for which the country is accountable.

• The quest for strategic deterrence and national sovereignty

Additionally, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine to preserve strategic deterrence and national sovereignty accompanied by a nuclear neighbourhood of the country invalidates the treaty’s implications on the country’s nuclear program. Similarly, the hostile relations with India and Afghanistan consolidate the quest for national security and nuclear deterrence.

• Dwarf-scale nuclear arsenal of the country

Most importantly, Pakistan has escaped the implications and regulations of the New START treaty because of its pocket-size nuclear arsenals as compared to Russia and the US. Like, the country’s nuclear arsenal is far below the limit the New START treaty set. Thus, the treaty’s implications are insignificant in Pakistan.

Critical Analysis

Critically saying, the New START treaty is a hallmark in reducing bilateral arms reduction and attaining strategic stability. Although it is the last surviving pillar of the bilateral nuclear agreement between the US and Russia, recently, the pragmatism and compliance shown by both countries anticipate the futuristic prospects of bilateral strategic stability, arms control and balance. Moreover, the treaty holds a blueprint for the rest of the nuclear powers to engage in multilateral arms control without prejudice to developing states. Nonetheless, the sphere of arms control under the banner of the New START treaty should be extended to include certain limitations on weapons modernization and non-deployed strategic warheads and bombers.

Conclusion

In a nutshell, the New START treaty has changed the contour of US-Russian strategic deterrence from the conventionally adopted principle of building arms to balancing bilateral stockpiles with equal numbers of deployed strategic arms. Apart from reducing strategic arms, the treaty holds significant importance by paving the way for multilateral nuclear agreements. However, the treaty has shifted the focus of strategic deterrence to weapons modernization as it has been veiled from the list of obligations.

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