CSS 2022 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | Evaluate the Future World Order with China, Russia, and the US
The following question of CSS Current Affairs 2021 is solved by Sir Ammar Hashmi, the best Current Affairs Coach, on the guided pattern of Sir Syed Kazim Ali, which he taught to his students, scoring the highest marks in compulsory subjects for years. This solved past paper question is uploaded to help aspirants understand how to crack a topic or question, how to write relevantly, what coherence is, and how to include and connect ideas, opinions, and suggestions to score the maximum.
Question breakdown
This question has two parts. The first part requires us to give an overview of the US and China’s ongoing Trade War Since 2018 and its relationship with the Second Cold War, and the second part requires a critical evaluation of the future world order with main actors such as China, Russia and the US.
Outline
1-Introduction
2-Brief overview of the US-China Conflict
3- Would this conflict lead to the Second Cold War?
4-The Future World Order
- ✓Bipolar Dominance: US-China Rivalry
- ✓Multipolar Dynamics: Emergence of Other Powers
- ✓Russia’s Strategic Position and Its Influence
- ✓Impact of Global Challenges and Cooperation
5-Critical Analysis
6-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
Since 2018, a trade war between the United States and China has escalated by trade tensions and political and strategic rivalry spearheaded by the Trump administration. As a result, the relatively recent emerging confrontation between the US and China has become the focus of interest and a source of discussion on the world order and what it would be. So, opponents of the Creeping Politics argument have argued that this competition could turn into a Second Cold War like the ideological and power battle seen in the twentieth century as the two superpower states engaged in procuring power to dictate the nature of the world order. Admittedly, this discussion may be accurate; nevertheless, several points suggest that the current US-China trade war is not a replay of the Cold War. First, the volume of trade enclosure, liberalization and globalization at the deeper layers of the economy establish a cord of umbilical interdependence between the two economies. However, the Cold War era did not have such concrete economic ‘entwinement’. Second, the nature of this conflict is not traditional warfare or military confrontation but an economic and technological one. Third, examining the current trends’ the world can no longer be divided into bipolar between the US and China, and many other leading players are rising. However, with the rebirth of Russia and its favourable geopolitical location, the war in the technological space, as a struggle for leadership, is bending the economic curves of the world, which characterizes the world as a much more complex, multilayered structure. Hence, this conflict is not the start of the Second Cold War but a shift towards a multipolar world order.
Brief overview of the US-China Conflict
Before delving deep into the main question, it is crucial to understand the main rivalry between the US and China. So, the recent US-China trade relations war has been one of the main events that created global economic and political shifts, which began in 2018. At the start of this confrontation, the United States placed levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports because of China’s unfair trade policies and intellectual property theft. This led to China imposing tariffs on American exports, which helped spark a trade war between the two countries. The dispute that began with tariffs is no longer confined to that level. Still, nowadays, it has turned into a fight for the dominant position in the sphere of sales and the leading role in technology between the leaders of world sales – the United States and China. They have been realized globally in the form of disruptions to supply networks, rising instability of global markets and impact on strategic choices of transnational firms. Hence, despite having talked and even negotiated to reduce tension or resolve trade disputes, the fundamental causes of this conflict are technological transfers, market opening, and state aid to firms, which suggest that there may be an inherent economic rivalry.
Is this conflict Would Lead to the Second Cold War?
The US-China tension increases essential questions regarding whether the world is on the verge of experiencing the Second Cold War. However, the relations show more complex processes implying the shift towards the multipolar world than the bipolar one. The entangled economic ties between the two countries built over several decades of neoliberal globalization disrupted the idea of the Second Cold War. Although intense rivalry is evident between these two countries, their economic dependence is so high that attempts to ‘un-couple’ the economies would be disastrous to both. The interdependency of their economies thus prevents an overt hostility that could lead to a direct diplomatic confrontation likely to influence the economic interconnectivity of the two powers. However, it has made a crucial change from shooting wars like the periods of the Cold War between the US and China. The present-era competition is more or less an economic and technological war, with both countries aspiring to outdo the other in AI, 5G, and trade wealth production. Such a shift from military to economic and technological competition is in harmony with the twenty-first-century tendencies that measure power following the technological and economic indicators rather than the military ones. Moreover, the US-China bilateralism approach to global power distribution is no longer valid. The appearance of other key players worldwide, such as the European Union, India, and regional associations, indicates the multiploidization of the world. Such actors are doing this through diverse partnerships, government policies and structures, and economic measures, thus disputing the hegemony that these power blocs enjoy. Globalization and the relations between states prove that the new world order has no early prospect of acquiring the bipolar model of the Cold War period. This multipolar world, characterized by change and connectivity, is geopolitics’ current and ever-developing essence.
The Future World Order
- ✓ Bipolar Dominance: US-China Rivalry
Furthermore, the world order in the future might approximate a bipolar dominance of the USA and China, but this is not inevitable. Amid the trade war, which started in 2018, there are increasing debates that the influence within the world may gradually be a binary affair between these two superpowers. This seems probable given that they are bitter rivals in the technology sector and internationally. For instance, the US’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is intended to positively position regional partnerships to curb Chinese overtures in Asia. On the other hand, China is strengthening itself through its investments in trade relations agreements with developing countries, which creates parallel worlds of hegemony. Yet, it is difficult to speak about the emergence of the coherent bipolar system. Globalising the economy and the prominence of regional players as forces that propel the upcoming world economy make a clear split between the US and China impossible. Thus, the idea suggesting that the world is gradually turning into the stage for the performances of two leading countries, the USA and China, is only one of the possible scenarios for the evolution of the global system.
- ✓ Multipolar Dynamics: Emergence of Other Powers
On the other hand, scholars also argue that the structure of this coming global system may not merely be bipolar, as some analysts have posited that the structure of the international system in the twenty-first century will be multipolar as other giants come into their own. Countries such as the EU, India and even the aspiring regional powers, including Pakistan, are in the process of reshaping geophysical policies and economic structures. The EU, for instance, has been instrumental in pushing its regulatory agenda with global consequences, as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has sought to compete with the US and China over the regulation of the tech industry elites. India is emerging as the economic giant of South Asia. With its fast-developing economy, it is finding its place in international politics and forming new bonds not confined to the US or China. Pakistan is not among the leading powers on a global scale. Still, it is significant in South Asia with its participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its relationship with the US and China. Such changes indicate that the future structure of international relations may be characterized as a system of a multiplayer character with influences divided among several centres instead of a bipolar system. This multipolar system suggests a complex and intertwined international system where many nations feature in the system, thus balancing such a way that no single or double entity can solely dictate power relations in the global system.
- ✓ Russia’s Strategic Position and Its Influence
Similarly, the role of Russia and its impact mustn’t be left out of the emerging world picture. Her geographical advantage can again be seen in how the country can influence international politics regarding natural resource endowment and military might. Moreover, oil and gas endowments greatly influence Europe and other energy-importing regions. Also, its increased activity in global affairs, for example, in Syria and Ukraine, indicates Russia’s assertiveness. The reinforcement of interactions between Russia and China through joint projects and exercises to strengthen their defence Pact deepens the rest balance with the probable overthrow of the United States’ hegemony internationally. Russia’s participation in such groups as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its strategic moves indicate its attempts to stay a significant player and continue its management of the shift of power. Therefore, actions and allies define the Russian role as one of the critical factors in the future configuration of the world order.
- ✓ Impact of Global Challenges and Cooperation
Following the analysis of multipolarity and Russia’s strategic place in it, it is necessary to highlight another essential element of the future world order – the consequences of global challenges and opportunities for cooperation. Such issues include climate change, pandemics, economic disparities, and cybersecurity threats, among others, which are all issues that affect the world or specific regions of the globe and, thereby, call for multilateral efforts to find and implement solutions. For example, climate change requires cooperation between countries to adopt environmentally friendly practices and lower CO2 emissions, which may lead to new international relations and new dynamics of power. The same is true in the case of climate change; the pandemic proved that cooperation is crucial on the international level, and officials need equal distribution of resources and possessions like vaccines. These global issues could push nations to integrate more or escalate tensions, positively impacting how powers, including the US, China and other major countries, respond. The capability of actors from the global system to cooperate in solving these problems will define the further shape of the world order. Therefore, though evolution to multipolarity and strategic partnerships are essential, strategic partnerships and forms of cooperation in addressing common problems will also be decisive for the interactions and power distributions in the global world.
Critical Analysis
To critically analyze, looking at the future world order that is less black and white than the preceding model of the Cold War. The trade war that began in 2018 between the US and China carries debates to suggest whether this could be taken to mean a Second Cold War. This trade war portrays a shift from the aggressive routes of the Cold War to the economic and technological routes of the war manifested through trade and technology. When viewed set against the backdrop of the contemporary American and Chinese ‘tit for tat’ trials of tariffs, restrictions of technology accessibility, and formation of global strategic alliances, the scenario proffered paints a system featuring multi-polarity rather than bipolarity. It becomes even more so given such factors as the new actors like the European Union and India. The EU regulations, such as the GDPR and India’s rising economic and strategic importance, show new poles of power worldwide. The great Russian circus of energy resources and its inclination toward a more profound and closer association with China has again introduced a new dimension to this emergent world order capable of upsetting the balance of power in the extended world. Also, global threats like climate change, pandemics, and cyber security rise and fall call for cooperation, which might either ease or fuel rivalry worldwide. This sums up the prospects of international order that will depend on the efficiency of collective action in addressing these questions. Therefore, although rivalry between the United States and China is one of the critical drivers of change, the contours of the new world order will build on multipolarity, alignment of the powers, as well as the potential for international cooperation, which means that the world will be an intricately, interconnected whole.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the trade war between the United States and China has been a glorious preamble to an even greater period of uncertainty in the world’s geography. Much as it is tempting to consider this economic struggle as the ‘Cold War’, it only goes some way in explaining the bigger picture. The ‘trade war’ between the US and China – a war that stems purely from economic competition and technological dominance – shows that the world is not entirely headed towards military conflict anymore but instead towards economic strife. However, this relatively rigid division does not capture the essence of the emerging global characterization. The emerging powers of the European Union, India, and the chess game that Russia wages contribute to the forces seeking to establish order soon. Fortunately, the influences through regulatory frameworks, new great actors like a superpower India and the file thinner of a new full-spectrum ally, Russia, indicate international relations are not bipolar but of a polycentric world. Also, the problem of climate change and pandemics illustrates the need for international cooperation and shows the possibility of a new approach to international relations. In the future, the global order will be more diverse in expressing a great variety of relations and cooperation, which cannot be simplified to the confrontation of two superpowers. In short, this emerging story stresses the importance of viewing the course of humanity’s relations as diverse and the need to expect a world that will be a product of some influencing factors.
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