CSS 2013 Solved Current Affairs Past Papers | Effects of Arab Spring on Arab World
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Question Breakdown
This question has one part in which we are asked to state how the Arab Spring will impact the political and security environment of the Arab world.
Outline
1-Introduction
2-Brief Overview of the Arab Spring
3-Political Effects of the Arab Spring
- ✓ Expected Political Instability
- ✓ Prospects for Democratization and Reform
- ✓ Challenges in Building Democratic Institutions
- ✓ Emergence of New Political Systems and Governance Models
4-Security Effects of the Arab Spring
- ✓ Likely Increase in Internal Conflicts
- ✓ Growth of Extremism and Terrorism
- ✓ Expansion of Armed Militias and Influence of Non-State Actors
- ✓ Weakening State Security
5-Critical Analysis
6-Conclusion
Answer to the Question
Introduction
In 2010, the Arab Spring began with a wave of never-before-experienced uprisings in the Arab world that deposed sedentary authoritarian regimes, paving the way for democratic reform. The political and security landscape of the Arab world would continue to be marked almost immediately by change in the years ahead, as it was in 2013. This will lead countries to face a long period of political instability during their transition into democratic governance; some, like Tunisia, may have political reform, while others, like Syria and Libya, will remain in conflict. Stable governance, building democratic institutions, and managing power vacuums will make establishing a stable political future challenging for these nations. On the security side, the Arab Spring will almost certainly create more bloodshed on its front as crumbling state security forces attempt to keep their grip on the country, leaving space for radical groups and non-state actors to make a play. This unrest will further disrupt smaller states, producing regional ripples and extending inter-state tensions. Therefore, this trend could affect global security altogether. The Arab Spring may bring uncertainty and mark the region’s political and security environment shortly.
Brief Overview of the Arab Spring
The Arab Spring, predicting beginning in late 2010 across much of the Arab world, is a pro-democracy uprising that marked a new political culture in the region. It was precipitated by severe political authoritarianism, economic struggles, and high unemployment, and Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution ignited it. The suffering of Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation sparked protests all over Tunisia and current President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. This led to similar incidents in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain as the years of authoritarian rule thoroughly annoyed people. Social networks are the primary tools that allow the youth to come out to the streets and coordinate actions or spread information on the actions worldwide. At first, these movements succeeded in overthrowing dictators such as Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya; in other countries, the movement called for constitutional changes and more political liberties. However, it is necessary to notice that the results in various fields are dissimilar: some countries – like Tunisia – tilted toward democratisation, whereas others – like Syria or Libya – plunged into civil war. Assembling, near-term mobilisation consequences of the Arab Spring had predetermined regional political and security issues that involved the weakening of governments, new political players, and periodic unrest.
Political Effects of the Arab Spring
- ✓ Expected Political Instability
To begin with, Political instability will continue to be an enduring issue throughout the Arab region following the Arab Spring. The collapse of authoritarian governments has left political gaps, and transitional governments will take time to provide solutions. Egypt, Libya and Tunisia will probably continue experiencing political instability because various political actors, both Islamist and preexisting regime affiliates, vie for power. This power struggle will prevent the formation of a firm form of government and continue to complicate these nations’ stability. Most of these countries have weak political structures and continuing internal conflicts, so they are unlikely to attain stable and sustainable development over the medium term, which will result in new unrest and possible revolutions in the future.
- ✓ Prospects for Democratization and Reform
Moving further, the Arab Spring offered democratisation and political transformation for many Arab countries, similar to those where authoritarian rulers were ousted. With the steps towards establishing democratic institutions, holding free and fair elections, and so on, we can see specific results of the actions of countries like Tunisia, where the uprisings began. Nonetheless, the general outlook for democratic change remains comparatively unclear and further complicated because it is unpredictable, and different countries may take different paths through this stage of evolution. However, overall trends of relations between political actors, such as those in Egypt, where the first signs of democratisation were observed, suggest that they would remain unpredictable and characterised by severe political conflicts between elites, the military and protest communities. Still, internal conflict and militia development have provided Libya with no democratic perspective without stabilisation. On balance, therefore, as sections of the Arab region would indeed perceive signs of democratisation, state transformation is likely to be, at best, unsteady, given the lack of developed Arab political culture coupled with the persistence of military or tribal power. While the prospects for democratization are emerging in parts of the Arab world, the success of these reforms will ultimately depend on the strength of the institutions that support them.
- ✓ Challenges in Building Democratic Institutions
The prospects for building liberal democracy are seriously distressed across the Arab world after the Arab Spring. For example, Yemen, which overthrew authoritarian regimes, has fallen into civil strife, primarily due to an absence of a political structure and institutions to help in the transition. The failure of government and security forces created a power void that meant competing groups, such as the Houthis, were able to take over regions of Yemen and halt any development of a stable democracy. In Syria, efforts toward establishing democracy proved futile due to war as the regime of Bashar al-Assad resisted democracy, resulting in loss of lives and a divided political system. The plight of democracy activists in Bahrain, where protests were crushed almost immediately, is therefore not surprising as the ruling monarchy has remained firmly in charge of the process. These examples are accompanied by the region-wide inability to build democracy since inadequate political institutions, military power, and sectarian divisions hinder the formation of efficient and inclusive political systems.
- ✓ Emergence of New Political Systems and Governance Models
Even as the Arab Spring seems to recede further into the past, with each given nation in the Arab world trying to come to terms with its implications both for governance and for the broader polity, there is little agreement concerning the type of governance that will prevail in the future. Getting over the poles of authoritarian rule, many countries will have to find new ways of articulating their political systems to accommodate rival political elites. In some cases, the danger arises that the former elites or military actors will remain in power, or in other words, that a genuine democratization process will be staged. Syria is but an example where the war is still going on, and it will take the country years to come to outline a proper system of governance. In other nations, however, it may transform the whole concept of governance since, with the Islamist movements asserting themselves as influential, political Islam may well define the form of governments of the future. Finally, these nations’ success in entrenching more stable governance structures devoid of corrupt practices, thereby entrenching representative and democratic systems, is the defining factor that will distinguish the region towards more stability or further deterioration of this ugly vice of fragmentation.
Security Effects of the Arab Spring
- ✓ Likely Increase in Internal Conflicts
Following the Arab Spring, the region will likely see a further escalation of internal conflicts. Syria, Libya and Yemen are good examples of countries already in the middle of civil instabilities with no immediate cure. The failure of the state institutions, in conjunction with the creation of militia and factions, leads to long-drawn violence. If the central authority weakens, fragmented forces that may include sectarian groups, tribal forces and militias form the potential for state failure, resulting in chaos and violent struggle. This fragmentation causes instability within a single country and in other global regions in which neighbouring countries are experiencing refugee problems and conflict overflows. On the same note, guarantees belonging to regional powers or international forces and through direct military interference or patronage of friendly forces may increase, triggering a vicious cycle. The aggravation of conflicts means that these states will be unable to gradually construct stable political structures, which leads to the chronic cycle of violence that poses a threat not only to the nation’s citizens but to the entire region as well.
- ✓ Growth of Extremism and Terrorism
Additionally, the lack of political leadership after the breakup of authoritarian regimes after the Arab Spring led to the emergence of extremism and terrorism. It is believed that groups like ISIS or Al-Qaeda will take advantage of the situation in the way that the specified nations will lose control of regions that internal conflicts have plagued. In Islamic nations such as Syria and Iraq, where the authority of the central government is weak, the terrorist gangs will find easy ground to instil their authority, mobilize compatriots, and conduct acts of terror domestically and internationally. Such groups are likely to cause strife and a negative impact on vulnerable groups and deepen sectarianism, leading to violence. Moreover, the increase in radical tendencies may extend to other areas of the Arab world where the effect of the Arab Spring protests never reached. When such groups grow in power, they will become a security threat to the region, complicating the governance work of governments that aim to restore order and stability.
- ✓ Expansion of Armed Militias and Influence of Non-State Actors
Apart from the growth of extremism and terrorism, because of the Arab Spring, various Arab states have seen the collapse of central authority in which armed militias and other non-state actors proliferated. For example, the state was losing its power, creating a space for PMF, as Iraq did. These sects are usually in the petite form, controlling their operation and with no allegiance to the state authority. Likewise, in Syria, Hezbollah and other local militias have emerged to play an essential part in the civil war by replacing the central power that has weakened considerably. These are not only local players, but they also get support from other players, and thus, they make local conflicts to be proxy conflicts. In Lebanon, for instance, the rise of influence and power in Hezbollah’s political and military capabilities has weakened the Lebanese state structures. That is, the growth of these militias’ power across the region hampers efforts to restore effective central authority and any hope for sustainable resolutions to the problems of security and state stability. It is more apparent now that it has acted in concordance with regional or global powers to undermine state sovereignty further and perpetuate Violent conflict and instability.
- ✓ Weakening State Security
Furthermore, across much of the Arab world, the Arab Spring has revealed the fragilities of Arab state security. However, countries like Jordan, which were able to avoid large-scale uprisings successfully, are still met with unprecedented security challenges caused by the influx of refugees from neighbouring Syria and Iraq, as well as a constant threat that extremists will cross their borders. The pressure has been put on the nation’s security services as it tries to maintain law and order within its territories. Although the government in Algeria has prevented considerable demonstrations, the regime is alert to future revolutions and stated that security forces would do the same to restore people’s trust in state authorities. In Oman and Morocco, kings have carved out a distinctly unstable political position that can only be sustained if equilibrium is maintained; there are two very different economies and demands for distinct political freedoms remain two significant dangers. Externally, countries must be equipped to meet the threats posed by unstable neighbouring regions, combined with the erosion of public confidence in governance, which challenges their security forces’ effectiveness. Weakened state security has become a defying feature across the broader Arab world. On the one hand, there is internal disorder — to which time can make no difference — and external pressure in the most stable, supposedly established nations, which in their extended management may prove challenging.
Critical Analysis
To critically analyse, the Arab Spring, which seemed to set out for positive change in the Arab world, has yielded a confused trail of occurrence. Historically and politically, the uprisings were believed to help create a policy of change and change of government; however, democracy was achieved in a few nations, such as Tunisia. In many other nations, however, such as Egypt, the wave for change was turned back by authoritarian actors – as when the military regained control after a brief experiment in democracy. The revolutions in Syria, Yemen and Libya degenerated into civil wars, thus leaving behind tearing apart states that could not foster stable political structures. All these conflicts have revealed how vulnerable the transitional governments are riven by sectarianism and lack of ample institutions to hold societies together. Regarding security, since the neighbouring regimes have collapsed, groups and militias that benefited from this void have become hostile to the region and turned it into a field for non-state actors. The increased radicalization is coupled with an inability to address drivers of conflict, which prospective threats seek to undermine regional and international stability for the long term. Other international players, including Russia, the United States, and regional players like Iran and Saudi Arabia, have presidential agendas that have compounded the post-Arab Spring environment, worsening some local conflicts. For example, Russia indirectly helped the Assad regime in Syria to continue the war; the Saudi Arabia and Iran conflict in Yemen aggravated the humanitarian crisis. Thus, the Arab Spring has not only not brought democratic change for the majority of people in the Arab countries but also has led to the further escalation of tensions in the region and the new rounds of geopolitical competition and has kept the region in a state of vulnerability far from improvements. The success or failure of these nations as essential players in the Arab world and the ability to chart their development courses depends on their ability to resolve internal vices and conditions and deal with external factors that define their general political and security arenas.
Conclusion
To conclude, after the Arab Spring, much has been expected in terms of political change throughout the Arab countries, but insecurity is prevalent now. Although some nations like Tunisia have achieved specific democratic transitions, the Arab region, to a large extent, is still not fully coming to terms with the outcomes of the uprisings. The effectiveness of democratisation in former authoritarian regimes was not met as it led to new internal wars, granted more power to non-state institutions, and increased tensions in the regions. Outside interference added another level of complexity to this aspect, where local conflicts became theatres of international operators. Looking to the future, the Arab world has the task of establishing a sound, practical, and legitimate political order and fundamental reconstruction. The future course of this area will define whether this region can overcome internal splits and address external threats that may lead to finding stability and good governance as expected before the Arab Spring began.
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